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Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018 #533256
11/14/18 05:55 AM
11/14/18 05:55 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,810
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Relatively moist and unstable conditions will prevail as a cold front approaches.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy at times today with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially over the sea and over southern coastal areas this morning then mainly north and inland this afternoon. Cloudy tonight with some showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms mostly north and along coastal areas.
Winds: Northwest | 5-15 kts, Sea State: Light Chop
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
General Outlook: For Thursday and Thursday night is for cloudy windy and cool conditions with light rain mostly over the sea.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: A tropical wave moving through the Leeward Islands now has a low chance of further development during the next couple of days. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Tonight NW 15-25 kts Choppy-Moderate 3-6 ft SOME SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Tomorrow N-NW 15-25 kts Rough 5-7 ft WINDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT RAIN.
Outlook N-NW 15-25 kts Rough 5-7 ft CLOUDY AND COOL.

The Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is over the Leeward and Virgin Islands from 22N63W to 16N67W. Scattered moderate convection from 15N-23N between 59W-63W. An upper-level low is centered over the Mona Passage near 18N68W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection over the Leeward Islands. This system continues to have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward.

In the southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 12N between 76W-82W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also inland over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds over most of the Caribbean Sea. The trough across the Virgin Islands extending NE into the adjacent Atlantic will move across Puerto Rico through late tonight, and then across Hispaniola Wed. The tropical wave over the southeast Caribbean will move westward reaching Hispaniola and the ABC Islands by late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel late Wed. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity with periods of heavy rain for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and the adjacent waters of the northwest Caribbean through early Fri. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into Fri behind the front, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.

  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
22° C
72° F
Inland 31° C
87° F
18° C
64° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
16° C
60° F
Low: 9:27 AM High: 3:01 PM
Low: 8:52 PM High: 2:29 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:57 AM Moonrise: 11:44 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM Moonset: 11:19 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.
CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro

Current Caye Caulker Weather Information

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018 [Re: Marty] #533259
11/14/18 06:13 AM
11/14/18 06:13 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,115
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning from the Northwest we have rain and dark clouds moving in. The sea around the barrier reef is calm. Today's expected high temperature is in the low 80's.

[Linked Image]

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Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018 [Re: Marty] #533270
11/14/18 08:54 AM
11/14/18 08:54 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,810
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

From Belmopan...

Very different weather this morning, strong SW surface wind, light blue arrow, this is not "Tiger" wind. The whole of southern Mexico and Guatamala covered with cloud, pushing down from the north, yellow arrow, yet it is SW high cloud over the Yucatan, orange arrow and clear skies over the Caribbean. But those cloud and air masses are fighting each other over Belize. There has been a wide band of cloud over the southern and eastern USA for weeks, it appears that there is another cold front pushing down, so we had a warmer night than usual. There is a lot of rain around this morning, north Belize and coastal regions central and south, which may well come inland later today. This is not ITCZ activity, like down near Panama, red blob, but winter weather coming down from the north, causing air mass clashing, not swellups, so lightning less likely, although there is a swellup off PG, where there was one lightning strike, where the heaviest rain is at present.

Looks like today will be mainly cloudy for most or all Belize today, with gusty winds and areas of significant rain from time to time.

Temperatures in Belmopan :
( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 24°C 76°F Yesterday max. 31°C 87°F

Ambergris Caye:;loctype:1
Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018 [Re: Marty] #533272
11/14/18 10:56 AM
11/14/18 10:56 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,810
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

The Cloud and rain picture.

The surface SW winds are winning and pushing out into the Caribbean under the easterly Caribbean clouds, there are some sunshine holes or thinning cloud in some central or western areas, but significant rain in north Belize and some coastal areas, as the two air masses clash.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018 [Re: Marty] #533276
11/14/18 11:48 AM
11/14/18 11:48 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,810
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Updated satellite view

[Linked Image]

Cold front rolling in...lows tomorrow predicted in the low-mid 70s. (From SanPedroScoop)

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 14, 2018 [Re: Marty] #533277
11/14/18 12:51 PM
11/14/18 12:51 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,810
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Looks as if this unusually weather, is strongly pushing cloud down from the N to NW yellow arrows, has now pushed well out into the Caribbean sea. Resulting in strong surface winds, light blue arrow from the SW giving mainly overcast conditions, but with the odd gimps of sunshine, but still with some significant rain showers, mainly in the north. The easterly Caribbean winds, white arrows, have almost been stopped, and very little high level cloud, orange arrow.

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