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Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2019 #537067
06/30/19 06:19 AM
06/30/19 06:19 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,320
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2019

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Thunderstorms. A tropical wave supports moist and unstable conditions over the area. Advisories: *A flood alert remains in effect for low lying areas especially near rivers and streams in southern Belize.*
24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy with some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain over most areas today then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially over northern and coastal areas tonight.
Winds: East | 5-15 kts, Sea State: Choppy
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Monday and Monday night is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the north Monday morning. Elsewhere showers will be isolated.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Tonight E 10-20 kts Choppy-Moderate 3-6 ft A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

Isolated moderate to locally strong showers and thunderstorms are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 81W westward. This part of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea is at the eastern edge of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the upper level trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted along the coast of Colombia, Panama as the Pacific monsoon trough extends across the region from a 1009 mb low centered in Colombia. The central and eastern Caribbean is under fair weather. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong easterly trades dominate the basin.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will support minimal gale force winds again tonight through the early morning hours just offshore Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly subsiding today and returning Monday. This gradient will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through the period, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean will continue to spread northwestern toward the southern Gulf of Mexico through late tonight.

  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 30° C
86° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
20° C
68° F
High: 7:35 AM Low: 2:57 PM
High: 9:18 PM Low: 1:58 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:21 AM Moonset: 4:36 PM
Sunset: 6:31 PM Moonrise: 4:11 AM (Mon)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2019 [Re: Marty] #537068
06/30/19 09:43 AM
06/30/19 09:43 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,320
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
The ITCZ swellups have caught up with us now. Huge swellups, but they are off shore, only a little activity actually over Belize. This is being caused by or driven by mid-level air coming up from the south.

Looks like much of today will be cloudy, with a high chance of rain showers.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 23°C 74°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday & last night Rain 3.5 mm (0.14" )

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2019 [Re: Marty] #537070
06/30/19 12:56 PM
06/30/19 12:56 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,320
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Mostly cloudy, windy with occasional light rain.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Monthly Weather Summary, June 2019

National Meteorological Service of Belize

The month of June marks the official beginning of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. In Belize it is also the first full month of the rainy season which usually starts around mid-May. June is climatologically the wettest month of the year at the airport and also at many of the weather stations across the country. Weather systems that typically produce rain during this month include tropical waves, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and very rarely tropical cyclones.

June 2019 started off relatively moist and unstable. The main feature was a surface low pressure system that had moved across Central America and entered the bay of Campeche. Meanwhile the upper levels were moist and divergent. This supported cloudy skies on the 1st. A few showers and thunderstorms affected mainly coastal areas before daybreak with slightly more in the south. Shower activity moved north of the country during the day with only isolated showers developing in the interior. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms persisted mainly in the north during the night of the 1st through early morning on the 2nd and then affected mainly central areas later in the day. Rainfall records from 9am on the 1st through 9am on the 2nd show that Hershey on the Hummingbird Highway recorded the most rainfall with a total of 67.6 mm (2.66 inches). Moisture decreased over the area on the 3rd with only isolated showers developing as the low pressure system moved further west away from the country.

Mainly fair, warm and mostly dry conditions prevailed over the country for the following few days from the 4th through to the 9th. The only exception to the overall dry pattern was the development of an occasional isolated afternoon thunderstorm over the Maya Mountains. A weak and very inactive tropical wave crossed on the 7th but did not produce any significant rainfall.

This dry spell ended on the 10th when a slight increase in moisture was noted over the area. This supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms on the 10th and 11th. These occurred mainly over the Toledo District at nighttime and over the Maya Mountains during the afternoon hours. Punta Gorda recorded a total of 26.0 mm (1.02 inches) and 24.0 mm (0.94 inches) of rainfall on the 10th and 11th respectively. Moisture increased further on the 12th supported mostly by an increase in divergence at the upper levels. This favored the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over inland and southern areas early in the day, decreasing later in the afternoon. Relatively moist conditions continued over the area on the 13th and 14th and then started to decrease on the 15th. As a result the 13th saw a few light showers mainly over the northern half of the country. A tropical wave crossed south of the country that day. During the night through early morning on the 14th isolated thunderstorms, a few showers and light rain affected mainly the south at first and then gradually moved toward western parts of the country. Similar weather conditions were noted on the night of the 14th. Later on during the afternoon of the 15th, a few showers were noted over inland areas.

Another, albeit less intense, dry spell affected the country from the 16th through to the 20th of June 2019. During this period a weak tropical waves crossed mostly south of the country on the night of the 17th producing a few showers in the extreme south. The dominant weather pattern was tight pressure gradients over the area which supported a moderate to gusty easterly to east-southeasterly airflow. An intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was also noted producing hazy conditions over the area. A slight surge in moisture on the 21st briefly interrupted this dry spell. This supported the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and southern areas of the country. Similar conditions persisted overnight on the 21st through early morning on the 22nd producing a total of 38.0 mm (1.5 inches) of rainfall in Punta Gorda. As a result, flooding was reported in several villages in southern Toledo. Shower activity decreased during the day on the 22nd. Hazy, dry and warm conditions returned over the area again on the 23rd and this lasted until the 25th. Surface analysis showed that another weak and inactive tropical wave crossed mostly south of the country on the night of the 23rd but this system did not produce any significant rainfall over the area.

A gradual increase in moisture was noted over the area during the last five days of June 2019. The strong trade winds decreased a bit favoring the gradual build-up of moisture. On the larger scale, a gradual relaxation of an earlier strong subsident/convergent phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was occurring. As a result a few showers developed over central areas on the 26th and a few thunderstorms in the south with the approach and passage of a tropical wave. A few more showers and isolated thunderstorms affected southern areas on the night of the 26th into the early morning of the 27th and then affected mainly central areas later on the 27th. Another tropical wave crossed on the night of the 27th into the early morning hours of the 28th. This supported more showers and isolated thunderstorms over the south that lasted into the morning of the 28th. Later in the afternoon this activity affected mostly northern and inland areas before becoming isolated late in the evening. Finally the weekend of 29th and 30th, saw a further increase in moisture over the area. A relatively strong tropical wave was approaching on the 29th which crossed later in the night. Conditions were moist that day with some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms moving from southeast to northwest across the country. Moist and unstable conditions persisted over the area on the last day of June 2019. This supported some early morning showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain mainly over the south and coast at first spreading to most areas by midday into early afternoon with some breaks later in the afternoon into the evening. Of all the stations sampled for this report, Punta Gorda recorded the highest one day total for the month. This occurred between 9am on the 29th and 9am on the 30th with a total of 87.0 mm (3.43 inches).

In summary, although June 2019 saw its fair share of tropical waves passing the country, most of these were weak and inactive. Three marked dry spells affected the country during the month. The first and most intense of these lasted about six days (4th to 9th) while the second one which was weaker lasted about five days from the 16th to the 20th. A third intense, but shorter, dry spell occurred from the 22nd to the 25th of June 2019. These dry spells (particularly the third one) were not as severe in the extreme south where rainfall was a bit more regular. The graphs and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperature recorded during the month of June 2019. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was below normal for most of the country except over the southern Toledo district where rainfall was near normal for the month. Both daytime (maximum) and nighttime (minimum) temperatures were above normal for most of the stations sampled with only a few exceptions. In conclusion, June 2019 was drier and warmer than usual.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

[Linked Image]

Monthly Maximum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Monthly Minimum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Rainfall Observed: January 2019 (mm)

[Linked Image]

Rainfall Observed: January 2019 (% Above/Below Average)

[Linked Image]

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