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Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2019 #538439
09/26/19 06:21 AM
09/26/19 06:21 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,257
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2019

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy. Light winds and moist and unstable conditions. Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. Some showers and thunderstorms will develop mostly over the interior this afternoon, then over northern and some coastal areas tonight.
Winds: Variable | 0-5 kts, Sea State: Slight
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: (Friday & Friday night) Cloudy spells with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern districts during Friday, then over the coast Friday night.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical Storm Karen was centered near 25.5N, 63.5W or about 475 miles South of Bermuda. Hurricane Lorenzo was centered near 15.2N, 39.3W or about 995 miles West of the Cabo Verde Islands. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Today Variable 5-10 kts Slight-Light Chop 1-2 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Tomorrow E 5-15 kts Light Chop-Choppy 2-4 ft A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH.
Outlook E-SE 5-15 kts Choppy 3-4 ft (FRI NIGHT) A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico. An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is analyzed from the Windward Passage near 20N73W across Jamaica near 18N78W to NW Caribbean Sea near 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the trough from 16N-18N between 74W-85W. To the east, the southern periphery of T.S. Karen is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the whole basin.

A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through this afternoon, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlc on Fri, then through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend, reaching the western Caribbean early next week. Swells from Hurricane Lorenzo which will remain E of the region will propagate through the tropical N Atlc and E Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week.

  High Low
Coastal 32° C
89° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 34deg; C
94° F
24° C
75° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
21° C
70° F
High: 7:42 AM Low: 2:30 PM
High: 8:45 PM Low: 2:15 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:42 AM Moonset: 4:29 PM
Sunset: 5:45 PM Moonrise: 4:28 AM (Fri)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538440
09/26/19 06:21 AM
09/26/19 06:21 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,257
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

There is a low chance right now that there could be tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean as a broad low pressure system may form in the western Caribbean during the first half of next week. In addition, there’s actually a possibility that whatever energy and moisture that is left from Karen could be pulled into this circulation and help it to develop.

Right now, there is more support from the European ensemble guidance with the model forecasting a 20-30 percent chance for development next week in the northwestern Caribbean than from the GFS ensemble guidance, which is forecasting a 10 percent or less chance for development. It should be noted though that the GFS ensemble guidance does go on to forecast tropical development in the western and northwestern Caribbean around October 10.

Putting aside the model guidance for a second and turning to the overall weather pattern for the next couple of weeks, it looks like the Madden Julian Oscillation phase will be one that is favorable for western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tropical development for at least the next two weeks and possibly longer. In addition, that high pressure ridge from the eastern United States into the western Atlantic can be a favorable pattern for tropical development across the Caribbean as barometric pressures will naturally be decreasing there over the next couple of weeks.

Given the potentially favorable weather pattern over the next couple of weeks and the fact that the model guidance are showing “something” trying to form, I think that tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean is possible either next week or during the week of October 7-13. It is something that I am watching closely and I will keep you updated.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538442
09/26/19 07:18 AM
09/26/19 07:18 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,984
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the wind is nil causing a glassy sea state around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is 89f.

sept 26th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538443
09/26/19 07:47 AM
09/26/19 07:47 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,257
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Who did Not get rain last night? We got 34mm 1.34" in Belmopan.
That was caused by high level clouds coming down from the NNE clashing with lower clouds, causing swellups. Yesterday was the 3rd hottest day of the year, but it was also very humid, which contributed to that rain.
There is still high level from the north this morning, but only small amounts of rain in it at present.

Looks as if today will be a mixture of cloud and sunshine, could be some rain this afternoon or night.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24°C 75°F Yesterday max. 36°C 96°F Yesterday Rain 34 mm (1.34" )

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538446
09/26/19 11:55 AM
09/26/19 11:55 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,257
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly Cloudy
Looks like the easterly Caribbean winds are coming back.
But the effect has been to move the rain way over to the west, out of Belize.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

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