There is a low chance right now that there could be tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean as a broad low pressure system may form in the western Caribbean during the first half of next week. In addition, there’s actually a possibility that whatever energy and moisture that is left from Karen could be pulled into this circulation and help it to develop.
Right now, there is more support from the European ensemble guidance with the model forecasting a 20-30 percent chance for development next week in the northwestern Caribbean than from the GFS ensemble guidance, which is forecasting a 10 percent or less chance for development. It should be noted though that the GFS ensemble guidance does go on to forecast tropical development in the western and northwestern Caribbean around October 10.
Putting aside the model guidance for a second and turning to the overall weather pattern for the next couple of weeks, it looks like the Madden Julian Oscillation phase will be one that is favorable for western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tropical development for at least the next two weeks and possibly longer. In addition, that high pressure ridge from the eastern United States into the western Atlantic can be a favorable pattern for tropical development across the Caribbean as barometric pressures will naturally be decreasing there over the next couple of weeks.
Given the potentially favorable weather pattern over the next couple of weeks and the fact that the model guidance are showing “something” trying to form, I think that tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean is possible either next week or during the week of October 7-13. It is something that I am watching closely and I will keep you updated.For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here