A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although surface pressures are low across the area, upper-level
winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development during the next
few days. By the weekend and early next week, however, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some slow
development to occur while the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward, passing near or over the Yucatan peninsula and
into the the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
AccuWeather meteorologists are watching an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean for potential tropical development in the days ahead. "This feature will move into the far northwestern Caribbean by Friday and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico near the northern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, This feature has a chance of organizing this weekend to early next week " Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, said.
Rapid development of this feature is not likely early on. However, with the warm waters in the region, it is possible the system ramps up if it organizes in the first place. Steering winds are likely to prevent the feature from moving northward into the United States. However, the system may push westward into Mexico or the system could stall over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rainfall can occur in parts of Central America, southeastern Mexico and perhaps part of the United States Gulf Coast at some point in lieu of any strong feature.
There is a strong TROPICAL WAVE, not yet designated by NHC-Miami, in the upcoming week, October 2-9, 2019, for possible further development into a TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM, to be named MelissaFor more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here