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Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019 #538673
10/10/19 05:58 AM
10/10/19 05:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,678
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Relatively moist and unstable conditions will prevail over the area. Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, except for a few more occurring over inland areas this afternoon and once again over southern and some coastal areas tonight.
Winds: East-Northeast | 5-15 kts, Sea State: Light Chop-Rough
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is for similar weather conditions to continue.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Today E-NE 5-15 kts Light Chop-Choppy 2-4 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Tonight E-NE 5-15 kts Choppy 3-4 ft A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTH.
Tomorrow E-NE 5-15 kts Light Chop-Choppy 2-4 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Outlook E-NE 5-15 kts Light Chop-Choppy 2-4 ft FRIDAY NIGHT:- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are in the W Caribbean. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-13N between 60W-67W, which includes portions of Venezuela and waters to the east of the ABC Islands. Another area of scattered moderate to strong convection extends over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and the south-central Caribbean from 05N-15N between 71W-79W. The convection is being enhanced by large scale upper- level divergence in the area and by the tropical wave along 80W. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Venezuela and Colombia through the end of the week. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the Caribbean Sea between 64W-77W and south of 17N.

A tropical wave with axis near 80W will move slowly through the western Caribbean through early Fri, then move inland over Central America. Behind this wave, fresh to strong trades along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Central Caribbean through tonight. Long period north to northeast swell propagating through the central Atlantic will gradually decay across the area Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Fri night. Broad low pres may develop across the SW Caribbean this weekend and persist into early next week.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 32deg; C
90° F
24° C
75° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
21° C
70° F
TIDES:
High: 7:55 AM Low: 2:26 PM
High: 8:39 PM Low: 2:25 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:44 AM Moonrise: 3:59 PM
Sunset: 5:34 PM Moonset: 3:56 AM (Fri)




Four Day Weather Outlook:


For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538674
10/10/19 05:58 AM
10/10/19 05:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,678
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Minimal threat for tropical development

As of early Thursday morning, EDT, there are several areas of low pressure that meteorologists are tracking across the Atlantic, though the threat for tropical development remains low.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538679
10/10/19 07:57 AM
10/10/19 07:57 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,678
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
There is a fair amount of rain in our area, but not on Belize, just a few sots of rain earlier this morning. There is very little high level cloud so no clashing with the easterly Caribbean winds.

There could be the odd rain showers later this afternoon or evening.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24°C 76°F Yesterday max. 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 2.8 mm ( 0.11" )

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538680
10/10/19 08:14 AM
10/10/19 08:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,678
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Southwestern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance May Develop Into A Tropical System This Weekend With A Track Towards The Northwestern Caribbean Possible Early Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 10, 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that there is an area of shower and thunderstorm activity occurring over the southwestern Caribbean. This disturbed weather is being caused by a tropical wave interacting with the Monsoon trough of low pressure. This convection has been occurring here since yesterday morning and I do think that it’s something that requires close watching for possible tropical development over the next few days.

The area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Caribbean is in an area of favorable environmental conditions with wind shear values of 5 to 15 knots occurring across much of the southwestern Caribbean. In fact, these favorable environmental conditions are now occurring across much of the western Caribbean.

Given the favorable environmental conditions and persistent convection, I think that we will see a gradual increase in organization of this area of disturbed weather over the next couple of days. In fact, it’s possible that we will see this disturbance strengthen into at least a tropical depression this weekend over the southwestern Caribbean.

Looking at the latest model guidance – The model guidance is actually kind of interesting if you really dig into the guidance.

Both the GFS and Canadian model guidance forecasts tropical development to occur this weekend near the eastern coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. From there, they show a track that takes it to Belize by Tuesday and eventually into the Bay of Campeche around the middle part of next week. After that, the GFS and Canadian model seems to suggest land interaction with southern Mexico will lead to this system dissipating by later next week.

The European model continues to insist that tropical development will occur in the eastern Pacific rather than the western Caribbean (which is still quite possible) around the middle part of next week.

Interestingly though, the European ensemble guidance seems to suggest that the chances for tropical development in the western Caribbean are higher than the eastern Pacific. In fact, 18 percent of the ensemble members forecast an eventual impact on the US Gulf Coast late next week or next weekend.

What is a head scratcher though is that the GFS ensemble guidance is the complete opposite and shows a nearly zero chance for tropical development from this disturbance. So, is this a “bad run” of the European ensemble guidance or is it a trend towards a higher chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean?

The reason for the higher chances for tropical development that we are seeing with the European ensemble guidance seems to have to do with a trend towards a stronger eastern US trough of low pressure late next week. This leads to this disturbance being pulled northwestward rather than being pushed directly westward into Central America.


Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that there is a 50-50 chance for tropical development to occur first in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and for this tropical system to be guided towards either Belize or the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during the first half of next week.

I still think that there is a significant amount of uncertainty as to where this system may go next week. As I mentioned earlier this week, the weather pattern across North America may undergo some significant changes over the next couple of weeks. The reason for the large changes in the weather pattern has to do with Typhoon Hagibis in the western Pacific. It is possible that this typhoon could cause a downstream trough of low pressure to develop over the eastern United States late next week and next weekend. This trough of low pressure could create a weakness in the high pressure system and pull our western Caribbean tropical system northward into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend.

Large weather pattern changes like this are not resolved well at all in the model guidance. Oftentimes, the model guidance are slow in showing these large changes. I think this is why we have seen a change in the European ensemble guidance towards a higher risk of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and a stronger eastern US trough of low pressure. In fact, we are probably not done with seeing shifts and trends in the model guidance towards an eastern US trough.

So, at this point, be careful when looking at the model guidance for the next ten days or so as they may not be totally catching onto the weather pattern changes that could occur.

Why is this all important when talking about our tropical disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean?

Well, if the ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico holds strong for the next week or so, then it would push our tropical system inland into Central America and then eventually into the eastern Pacific.

On the other hand, if we do see a trough of low pressure form over the eastern United States late next week and next weekend, its influence would pull the tropical system northward into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the eastern or northeastern Gulf Coast as soon as next weekend.

Bottom line is that for the next several days or so, all of the model guidance will likely undergo large changes in how they see the upper level weather pattern. Eventually, they will “figure out” the large scale weather pattern change.

Now, if we look at climatology for mid and late October, it would suggest any organizing and strengthening tropical system in the western Caribbean would be pulled either towards the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico or across the Florida Peninsula and up the US East Coast.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538682
10/10/19 10:54 AM
10/10/19 10:54 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,678
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Quite a few rain showers in many parts of Belize, and more out at sea, perhaps coming in this afternoon.

][Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 10, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538685
10/10/19 11:35 AM
10/10/19 11:35 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,678
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly Cloudy.

NEMO Warning:

MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM CLOSE TO BELIZE

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) are in discussion regarding ongoing computer models which are predicting that a tropical system could develop within our region, close to Belize somewhere near to Honduras/Nicaragua by the weekend or very early next week. The models will be better able to predict the possibility for the development of a tropical system and a projected path between today and the upcoming days. The Met Office will be consulting with the National Hurricane Centre and will back brief NEMO today.

[Linked Image]


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