A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the weekend. This system is forecast to move
westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. The system is
forecast to move westward toward Honduras and Belize early next
week. Heavy rainfall is expected over Central America during the
next several days. See the Special Features section above for more
Heavy rainfall event expected for Central America: A broad area of
low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea by late this weekend. As the broad low tracks westward toward
Central America by early next week, the low is likely to
contribute to the formation of a Central American gyre. Through
the weekend, heavy rainfall is likely across Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Early
next week, the heavy rain will continue in those locations and
spread northwestward to the rest of Central America as well as
southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.
There remains a broad area of weak counterclockwise winds over the western Caribbean and Central America. This feature is called a gyre.
Occasionally, as tropical waves move into this gyre, they may have a greater chance at becoming a tropical depression or storm, since there is extra moisture in place and there already is a weak circulation to begin with.
"As a result, the area from the western Caribbean to Central America, including adjacent eastern Pacific waters, could give birth to a tropical system or two through next week," Kottlowski said.
"However, the chance of tropical storm formation is probably significantly higher on the Pacific side as opposed to the Caribbean side," Kottlowski added.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.