Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019 #538694
10/11/19 05:59 AM
10/11/19 05:59 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,267
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy. A weak tropical wave will support a slight increase in moisture during the next 24 hours. Advisories: *A broad area of low pressure may develop over the Western Caribbean late this week-end or early next week. The National Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the area for any possible tropical development over the next few days.*
24-hour forecast: Sunny skies with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy skies tonight. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will occur mostly over inland areas today and over the south tonight.
Winds: East-Northeast | 5-15 kts, Sea State: Light Chop
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: For Sat. and Sat. night is for some cloudy spells with showers or thunderstorms generally isolated, except for a few more over inland and southern areas.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure may develop across the western Caribbean late this weekend or early next week. Some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near our coast. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Today E-NE 5-15 kts Light Chop 2-4 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Tonight E-NE 5-15 kts Light Chop 2-4 ft A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY SOUTH.
Tomorrow E-NE 5-10 kts Slight 1-3 ft ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Outlook E 5-15 kts Light Chop 2-4 ft A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY SOUTH.

The Caribbean Sea

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the area south of 15N between 68W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over portions of NW Venezuela and Colombia. Some strong convection is moving into the E coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica now. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence in the area and by the tropical wave currently over Central America near 85W.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward toward Honduras and Belize early next week. Heavy rainfall is expected over Central America during the next several days. See the Special Features section above for more details.

Long-period north to northeast swell will gradually decay across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through tonight.


  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33deg; C
92° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
High: 8:35 AM Low: 2:59 PM
High: 8:56 PM Low: 3:05 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:45 AM Moonrise: 4:35 PM
Sunset: 5:33 PM Moonset: 4:44 AM (Sat)




Four Day Weather Outlook:


For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538695
10/11/19 06:00 AM
10/11/19 06:00 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,267
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward toward Honduras and Belize early next week. Heavy rainfall is expected over Central America during the next several days. See the Special Features section above for more details.


Heavy rainfall event expected for Central America: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. As the broad low tracks westward toward Central America by early next week, the low is likely to contribute to the formation of a Central American gyre. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall is likely across Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Early next week, the heavy rain will continue in those locations and spread northwestward to the rest of Central America as well as southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

There remains a broad area of weak counterclockwise winds over the western Caribbean and Central America. This feature is called a gyre.

Occasionally, as tropical waves move into this gyre, they may have a greater chance at becoming a tropical depression or storm, since there is extra moisture in place and there already is a weak circulation to begin with.


"As a result, the area from the western Caribbean to Central America, including adjacent eastern Pacific waters, could give birth to a tropical system or two through next week," Kottlowski said.

"However, the chance of tropical storm formation is probably significantly higher on the Pacific side as opposed to the Caribbean side," Kottlowski added.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538698
10/11/19 07:24 AM
10/11/19 07:24 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,757
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the NE wind at 10 mph is creating a moderate sea state around our barrier reef. It's the rainy season and we're experiencing thunder showers here and there. Today's expected high temperature is in the mid 80's.

oct 11th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538699
10/11/19 08:48 AM
10/11/19 08:48 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,267
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is Possible Late This Weekend & Early Next Week; This Tropical System May Move Into The Bay Of Campeche Later Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 11, 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring over the southwestern Caribbean. This convection is being caused by a broad low pressure system over this area of the southwestern Caribbean.

Analysis of environmental conditions indicates that wind shear values are between 10 and 20 knots across the southwestern Caribbean, however, wind shear values increase to 20 to 25 knots across the northwestern Caribbean. I do still think that we will see this area of disturbed weather gradually increase in organization this weekend as it moves right along the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

During the first half of next week, this area of disturbed weather may push into the northwestern Caribbean very close to the coast of Belize and northern Honduras.

It continues to be quite possible that this area of disturbed weather may develop into at least a tropical depression either later this weekend in the southwestern Caribbean or during the first half of next week in the northwestern Caribbean.

Looking at the latest model guidance Some of the model guidance have trended a little stronger with their forecasts for tropical development with this system. What I think we are seeing in the model guidance is a continuing trend towards a robust trough of low pressure to move into the eastern United States late next week. This leads to this tropical system being pulled northwestward into the Bay of Campeche late next week and then driven north and northeastward towards the northern Gulf Coast next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that there is a 50 percent chance for this disturbance to become a tropical depression and possibly even a tropical storm early next week near the coast of Belize or northern Honduras. In addition, this system looks likely to move into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it could develop further.

Heavy Rainfall For Central America: This area of disturbed weather is likely to produce heavy rainfall from today through this weekend across Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and eastern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. This heavy rainfall threat is likely to spread into Guatemala, Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico during the first half of next week. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides across these areas.


For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538700
10/11/19 09:44 AM
10/11/19 09:44 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,267
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The easterly Caribbean winds are back properly now, not much else happening, the high level is mainly effecting Honduras.

Looks like today will be mainly sunny, with only a small chance of the odd rain shower, perhaps more this evening.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24C 75F Yesterday max. 33C 91F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0.0" )

ADVISORY #1 - FRIDAY 11TH OCTOBER, 2019

NEMO STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR TO BELIZE

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby advises the general public that a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. If the prediction changes for the worse, considering all the factors, by Tuesday we might be facing a significant threat. All members of society are advised to review their plan and make all necessary preparations. Public Officers are advised to be prepared for possible NEMO emergency duties by early next week. All are advised to use the weekend to prepare, review your family emergency plan. People in flood-prone areas, farmers, fishers, and people on the islands need to remain vigilant and be prepared.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 11, 2019 [Re: Marty] #538703
10/11/19 01:15 PM
10/11/19 01:15 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,267
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly Cloudy. Rain showers have been increasing, not decreasing as typical.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


Links
Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
Maruba Beach Klub and Spa is the premiere Secret Beach spa and restaurant located on the crystal blue waters of the Caribbean Sea at the center of Secret Beach, Belize
First Class Accommodations for the Budget Traveler

Things to do

News
Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
BelizeNews.com
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Amandala
ReefTV
Love FM
The Reporter
PLUS TV
TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
SanPedroScoop
iTravel Belize
Paradise Theater
San Pedro Fun Finder
Paradise Guy Event Calendar
Cayo Event Calendar

Blogs
San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
Tacogirl
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Belize Happy Adventures
Conch Creative
Caribbean Culture & Lifestyle
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Click for Ian Anderson's Caves Branch, Welcome to a World of Adventure
Lil Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
February
S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
ShoutChat Box
Who's Online Now
0 registered members (), 401 guests, and 0 spiders.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums44
Topics70,635
Posts479,138
Members19,598
Most Online2,982
Jan 29th, 2019



AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.1