Present Condition: Sunny in the north, cloudy in the south. Skies will be sunny with a few cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated with a few more over inland areas this afternoon and mostly over the south and some coastal areas tonight.
================Monthly Weather Summary, October 2019
National Meteorological Service of Belize
October is typically one of the wettest month for the country of Belize. Systems that usually affect the country during this month include tropical waves and Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs). On occasions a tropical cyclone may affect the country during October. Cold fronts often affect the country during this month as well.
The month of October 2019 started off relatively moist and unstable. A tropical wave with an embedded area of low pressure was slowly approaching the country. The 1st saw the development of a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over inland and southern areas. Moisture increased further on the 2nd supporting an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The low pressure system and tropical wave was now over the Gulf of Honduras. The system passed over Belize and Yucatan late on the 2nd through early morning of the 3rd supporting the development of some showers and thunderstorms over most areas of the country. Central Farm in Cayo recorded a total of 53.3 mm of rainfall between 9 am on the 2nd and 9 am on the 3rd.
Moisture decreased slightly on the 4th as the system moved further inland over Yucatan. However, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms persisted over northern and northwestern portions of the country that day. Similar weather conditions persisted on the following two days (5th and 6th) with shower and thunderstorm activity occurring mostly over inland and northern areas.
A trough of low pressure developed over the country extending from Belize north-northeastward to the northern Bahamas late on the 6th through to the 7th. This supported very moist conditions with overnight showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern and central areas, becoming isolated later on the 7th. Tower Hill in Orange Walk recorded 34.1 mm of rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms developed mostly over the south on the night of the 7th through early morning of the 8th with Punta Gorda recording 112.0 mm of rainfall. A few showers and periods of rain lingered over northern and inland areas throughout the remainder of the 8th. Relatively moist conditions persisted on the 9th with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly along the coast.
The 2nd tropical wave for October 2019 crossed the country during the early morning hours of the 10th. This supported the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and southern areas. The 3rd tropical wave for the month followed closely behind the 2nd and crossed the country on the evening of the 11th. This system aided in the development of a few showers across the country.
After a slight decrease in moisture on the 12th, moisture increased once more on the 13th with the approach of a low pressure system that developed along the east coast of Nicaragua. The National Hurricane Center was monitoring this system but gave it a very low chance of development in 48 hours. NEMO and the NMS was also closely monitoring it for any development. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting mainly southern and coastal areas on the night of the 12th through early morning on the 13th and then showers and thunderstorms developed mainly over northern and central areas later on the 13th. The area of low pressure crossed the country on the 14th. Its approach supported the development of some showers, thunderstorms and rain from overnight on the 13th continuing for most of the day of the 14th. Heavy rains caused flooding in San Ignacio as well as down south in Punta Gorda where a total of 236 mm of rainfall was recorded between the 12th and 14th.
Moisture decreased over the country on the 15th as the system moved west of Belize as an open trough. However, outbreaks of showers still continued over the south and coast on the night of the 14th through early morning of the 15th with conditions improving later in the day. By the 16th conditions had become mostly dry over the country. Fair, warm and mostly dry weather prevailed over the area from the 17th through to the 21st of October 2019. A weak tropical wave (the 5th for the month) crossed between the 19th and 20th but this system did not support any significant development of showers and thunderstorms.
The 6th tropical wave for October 2019 was more active when it crossed on the 22nd. As a result, a few showers and thunderstorms affected most areas of the country that day. Moist conditions persisted the following day with showers and thunderstorms affecting most areas. By the 24th moisture had decreased somewhat with showers and thunderstorms becoming isolated.
Relatively dry conditions were noted on the 25th. The approach of the 7th tropical wave for October along with the proximity of a front dipping as far south as northwestern Yucatan between the 26th and 27th resulted in some moisture convergence over the area. This supported a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern and inland areas on the afternoon and night of the 26th. Showers redeveloped mainly over the Maya Mountains on the 27th. The tropical wave did not actually crossed until early morning of the 28th. As a result overnight (27th-28th) showers and thunderstorms affected the Toledo district. This activity then became concentrated mainly along the coast on the morning of the 28th spreading to inland areas later in the afternoon.
Conditions became relatively drier over the country on the 29th. However, a few showers still developed across different areas of the country that day. Showers developed once more over the south on the night of the 29th through early morning of the 30th becoming isolated later in the day and affecting mainly northern areas. Showers redeveloped once more over the south that night. The last day of October 2019 started off generally fair, but the approach and passage of the 8th tropical wave later in the day supported a few afternoon showers mainly over central areas.
In summary, a total of eight tropical waves affected the country in October 2019. The strongest wave had an area of low pressure embedded with it and crossed the country around the middle of the month with heavy showers and thunderstorms. This resulted in flooding over some areas in the west and south. Additionally, for the first time in quite a few months, rainfall was above normal for most areas in October 2019. The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperature recorded during the month of October 2019. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal for most of the country except for some areas in northern Cayo and western Orange Walk district where rainfall was normal to just slightly below normal. October 2019 was warmer than normal as can be seen from the records of both maximum temperatures and minimum/nighttime temperatures across the stations sampled. Monthly Rainfall SummaryMonthly Maximum TemperaturesMonthly Minimum TemperaturesRainfall Observed: October 2019 (mm)Rainfall Observed: October 2019 (% Above/Below Average)