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Belize Weather Forecast: April 22, 2020 #541843
04/22/20 06:05 AM
04/22/20 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 71,960
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: April 22, 2020

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Hot and sunny throughout the region. Fair, warm and dry conditions will prevail over the area.
Advisories: *A small craft caution to go into effect tonight. Residents, especially those residing in the interior of the country, are advised to remain hydrated and seek shelter from direct sunlight as much as possible. Also the risk for bush and forest fires remains high.*
24-hour forecast: Sunny and hazy with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight with little or no rainfall expected.
Winds: East-Southeast | 10-20 kts | Gusty
Sea State: Moderate
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
Outlook: Thursday and Thursday night is for partly cloudy and warm conditions with no rainfall expected.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Today E-SE 10-20 kts Moderate 4-6 ft WARM AND DRY.
Tonight E-SE 15-25 kts Moderate-Rough 5-7 ft WARM AND DRY.
Tomorrow E-SE 15-25 kts Rough 6-9 ft WARM AND DRY.*SMALL CRAFT WARMING*
Outlook E-SE 15-25 kts Rough 6-8 ft WARM AND DRY. *SMALL CRAFT WARMING*

The Caribbean Sea

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite imagery, show upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, from 14N northward. An upper level trough passes across the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to the coast of Venezuela along 68W. Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.

E to SE winds will increase to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, with fresh winds expected continue through Friday. A cold front will be moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea tonight through Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere from Thursday through Saturday.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
28° C
82° F
Inland 37° C
98° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 31° C
88° F
21° C
70° F
High: 9:27 AM Low: 4:19 PM
High: 10:19 PM Low: 4:08 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:31 AM Moonset: 6:02 PM
Sunset: 6:10 PM Moonrise: 6:00 AM (Thu)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: April 22, 2020 [Re: Marty] #541846
04/22/20 06:14 AM
04/22/20 06:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 71,960
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
As you can see, the actual rains are rather erratic.. Under 2010 is the average or typical pattern, then compare that to each of the following years. To make it a little easier, I have the light blue lines making the monthly rains a little easier to see. The light grey line is the 365 day ( year ) running average, that is why it is fairly flat.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: April 22, 2020 [Re: Marty] #541847
04/22/20 10:10 AM
04/22/20 10:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 71,960
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
The Caribbean wind is returning, at least over the north half of the country. and with it significant Caribbean clouds which appear to have less smoke in them. But there is still honduras Smog out there in the sea and Guatamala.

Looks as if today might be a little cooler than the 102F of Monday, but no rain expected.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24C 75F Yesterday max. 37C 98F Yesterday Rain 0.0 mm ( 0" )

There is really no way to decipher when rains may get to Belize. . .
There are sort of two types, the sudden swellup that almost appears from nowhere, drops its rain and disappears. Then there is more normal types of rain, that can last longer, usually lighter rain and can cover larger areas. That first sudden one could happen any time in April, May or June, the more steady type more likely in June or July, as the Sun passes us, going north.

We have seen ITCZ activity along the equator, and even up as high as near Panama, but that is erratic, and moved away. Basically, it means that one of those high, fast developing ITCZ type of swellup, could just suddenly develop and cause very heavy rains and then all over in just 30 minutes. . . But such a swellup, typically only have a 10 mile radius, so even if Belize did get one, then only part of the country would see that rain.

That ITCZ or Monsoon band, appeared near Panama fairly suddenly, over just a few days, but then moved south again and rather broken up. . . Next time it comes up from the south, it just might get a bit further north than Panama. The rains near the Pacific coast of southern Mexico and Guatamala are to do with the Pacific winds and the Mountain ridge there, and do not bring rain to Belize.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: April 22, 2020 [Re: Marty] #541858
04/22/20 11:53 AM
04/22/20 11:53 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 71,960
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Hot, sunny and windy. Some high clouds.
24hr Forecast: Sunny and hazy with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight with little or no rainfall expected.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: April 22, 2020 [Re: Marty] #541862
04/22/20 06:56 PM
04/22/20 06:56 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 71,960
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
You can see Swellups occurring now in Mexico, Guatamala and Honduras, but not near Belize.

Sunrise from Blue Marlin Beach Resort - South Water Caye
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