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Tropical Depression Three #542695
05/31/20 04:57 AM
05/31/20 04:57 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,008
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
There is a potential tropical storm developing on our door step, TS AMANDA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION Two-E has been upgraded to TSAmanda. Amanda LANDFALL in Guatemala is imminent within the next 1-2 hours.

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It is unlikely to be anything more than a Tropical depression, so no hurricane winds, but there could be a lot of rain from it. It is probably responsible for getting the new swellup over southern Belize, to be moving northwards.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the mountains of Central America later today or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

RAINFALL: Through the middle of the week, Amanda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz. Amanda is also expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over northwestern Nicaragua, Belize, and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Chiapas, and Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El Salvador, southern Guatemala, Tabasco, and Veracruz. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area this morning.

National Meteorological Service of Belize:
FLOOD wARNING: FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS AND IN LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS, AS MAJOR RIVERS LIKE THE RIO HONDO AND LOWER BELIZE RIVER APPROACH BANK STAGE AND OTHERS INCREASE SLOWLY.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH-FLOODING NEAR COMMUNITIES ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYA MOUNTAINS.

SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

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Last edited by Marty; 06/02/20 06:58 AM.
Re: Tropical Depression Three [Re: Marty] #542702
05/31/20 10:08 AM
05/31/20 10:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,008
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
**Special Tropical Weather Outlook***
National Meteorological Service of Belize

At 9:00am the center of Newly Formed Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda was located near 14.7N latitude, 90.3W longitude or inland over southern Guatemala. Amanda is expected to move generally northward and dissipate as it moves further inland later today.There is the possibility that the remnants of Amanda may emerge in the southeastern Bay of Campeche and has a medium chance of development during the next 48 hours.

-Tropical cyclone formation is not expected elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest Satellite Imagery shows that there is a temporary break in showery and thunderstorm activity, however, this is expected to change later today, especially over central and northern areas.

FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER THE COUNTRY, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND IN LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THERE IS A VERY HIGH POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH-FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY NEAR COMMUNITIES ALONG ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYA MOUNTAINS. RIVER UPDATE-THE BELIZE RIVER, NEAR BANANA BANK, NEARS FLOOD STAGE, AND WHILE THE RIO HONDO AND LOWER BELIZE RIVER APPROACH BANK-FULL STAGE, OTHER RIVERS ARE INCREASING SLOWLY.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2020/tropical-storm-amanda

Re: Tropical Depression Three [Re: Marty] #542703
05/31/20 01:34 PM
05/31/20 01:34 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,008
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Amanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward motion is expected through this evening, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Amanda will move farther inland over Guatemala through this evening. The governments of El Salvador and Guatemala have discontinued all tropical storm warnings.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely this afternoon, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate over the mountains of Central America later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

RAINFALL: Through the middle of the week, Amanda or its remnants are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz. This system is also expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over northwestern Nicaragua, Belize, and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Chiapas, and Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El Salvador, southern Guatemala, Tabasco, and Veracruz. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Re: Tropical Depression Three [Re: Marty] #542718
06/01/20 09:12 AM
06/01/20 09:12 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,008
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Surprise, surprise, the hurricane centre have pretended that TS Amanda has disappeared and reincarnated as INVEST 93L now as an Atlantic storm. Looks as if they have not realised they are the same storm. But they can't give any information about it as yet. To me, it looks as if it will go over the whole Yucatan and Merida, and into the Gulf.


Re: Tropical Depression Three [Re: Marty] #542737
06/02/20 06:58 AM
06/02/20 06:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,008
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...

A Tropical Storm Warning continues along the coast of Mexico from Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight.

As of 7 a.m. CDT, Tropical Depression Three is centered over the Bay of Campeche about 125 miles (200 km) west of Campeche, Mexico. It's moving toward the west near 3 mph (5 km/h). On the forecast track, the center is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. When that occurs, it will be named Cristobal (pronounced krees-TOH-bahl). A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.

Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service

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