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Belize Weather Forecast: May 31, 2020 #542698
05/31/20 06:10 AM
05/31/20 06:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 67,494
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: May 31, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Quite cloudy this morning. Newly formed Tropical Storm Amanda, located southeast of Guatemala City, continues to support very moist and unstable weather over the country.
Advisories: *Small Craft Caution in effect for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas, especially near heavy showers and thunderstorms. FLOOD WARNING: Flooding, due to heavy and persistent rainfall over the country, is expected to continue near rivers and streams, and in low-lying and flood prone areas. There is a very high possibility for flash flooding and landslides, especially near communities along the eastern slope of the Maya Mountains.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy skies with some showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain, which may be heavy at times, will occur over the country, but especially over northern and central areas.
Winds: East-Southeast | 10-20 kts | Gusty
Sea State: Moderate-Rough
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: Similar conditions are expected to continue into Monday and Monday night.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Today E-SE 10-20 kts Moderate-Rough 4-7 ft SOME SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
Tonight E-SE 10-20 kts Rough 5-7 ft SOME SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
Tomorrow E-SE 10-20 kts Rough 5-7 ft SOME SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
Outlook E-SE 15-25 kts Rough 5-8 ft SOME SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN (SMALL CRAFT WARNING).

The Caribbean Sea

...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

A tropical wave is moving across the far western Caribbean, and will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central American Gyre later today. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through mid week as the Central American Gyre deepens. Farther east, the Bermuda High rebuilds to north of the basin maintaining fresh tradewinds off Colombia through mid week.


  High Low
Coastal 28° C
82° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 29° C
84° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 24° C
76° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 11:33 AM High: 5:31 PM
Low: 11:55 PM High: 6:11 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:17 AM Moonrise: 1:28 PM
Sunset: 6:23 PM Moonset: 1:58 AM (Mon)




Four Day Weather Outlook:


For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: May 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #542700
05/31/20 06:36 AM
05/31/20 06:36 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,845
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have rain and wind from the East at 20 mph. Today's expected high temperature is 86 f.

may31.jpg

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: May 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #542701
05/31/20 10:05 AM
05/31/20 10:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 67,494
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
I recorded 227mm ( 9 inches! ) of Rain in Belmopan in just 24 hours of yesterday, by far far the highest rain I have ever recorded, and another 66mm ( 2.6" ) of rain during the dark hours of this morning.. One tremendous lightning storm abound 1 - 2 am. And you think that is the worst of it. ? The actual storm TROPICAL STORM AMANDA has still not got to us, its outer clouds are now covering the southern half of Belize. Without the Radar, I have no idea how much rain that is bringing. There is still ITCZ rain over Orange Walk district with heavy rain, from the earlier storm area.

Today will not only be cloudy over the whole country, but more rain, possibly significant more rain.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 23°C 74°F Yesterday max. 29°C 84°F Yesterday Rain 227 mm ( 9") This Morning Rain 66 mm ( 2.6" )

What we experienced yesterday and over night was a front storm area ahead of TROPICAL STORM AMANDA which is approaching Belize right now, front clouds already over much of Belize.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Tropical Storm Amanda is in the area, for more information click here.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: May 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #542704
05/31/20 01:34 PM
05/31/20 01:34 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 67,494
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
I am getting the impression that although the centre of TROPICAL STORM AMANDA is passing over or along our western border, that it is not causing much rain. It's really two systems; the earlier one came in from the Caribbean along the Honduras coast and turned N; the second one is coming in across Guatemala.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Cloudy with rain as TS Amanda goes by on the west side of the country.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy skies with some showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain continuing mainly over northern and central areas this afternoon through to tomorrow morning.

[Linked Image]

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Amanda was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Amanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward motion is expected through this evening, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Amanda will move farther inland over Guatemala through this evening. The governments of El Salvador and Guatemala have discontinued all tropical storm warnings.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely this afternoon, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate over the mountains of Central America later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

RAINFALL: Through the middle of the week, Amanda or its remnants are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz. This system is also expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over northwestern Nicaragua, Belize, and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Chiapas, and Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El Salvador, southern Guatemala, Tabasco, and Veracruz. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: May 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #542705
05/31/20 05:36 PM
05/31/20 05:36 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 67,494
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Looks like there is some more rain coming up from the south, into western central areas over the next few hours.

[Linked Image]

Strong Thunderstorm Alert
(9 pm May 31, 2020)
A line of thunderstorms currently affecting central and portions of northern Belize.
Dangerous thunderstorms are possible near central and northern locations with frequent lightning, heavy rain and strong winds.
Take appropriate measures to ensure safety to life and property immediately!

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

=======================

Monthly Weather Summary, May 2020

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Climatologically May is the warmest month of the year in Belize. The first part of the month is typically characterized by warm, dry and hazy conditions. However, this month is also the transition month from the dry to the wet season across the country. Therefore, the rains usually start in the south after the first week of May and gradually make their way northwards.

May 2020 started mainly fair across the country with only isolated thunderstorms over the Maya Mountains in the afternoon on the first day. A light easterly to northeasterly surface flow prevailed due to a pre-frontal trough that was located just east of the country. However, the cold front only reached as far as southern Yucatan on the second where the tail end dissipated. Showers were generally isolated and affected coastal areas in the morning and mountainous areas during the afternoon. From the 3rd to the 4th, weather conditions continued mostly fair except for isolated showers along with isolated thunderstorms over the mountains in the afternoon and over the Toledo district at night. Rain and thunderstorms affected Punta Gorda on the morning of the 5th supported by relatively moist and divergent conditions aloft. Elsewhere generally fair weather conditions prevailed.

Moist and unstable conditions prevailed across the country from the 6th as a high pressure system behind a stationary front over the southern Gulf of Mexico induced a northeasterly and easterly to northeasterly airflow over the area. Skies were mostly cloudy with isolated showers over central areas on the 6th morning and isolated thunderstorms over the south and near the western border during the afternoon then several showers affected most areas overnight. The cloudiness persisted on the 7th and a few showers and thunderstorms affected inland areas in the morning and spread over most areas during the afternoon but were concentrated mainly over the south by nightfall. Skies remained cloudy on the 8th and 9th as showers and thunderstorms continued to affect the country but especially southern and coastal areas at night and during the morning then northern and inland areas during the afternoon and evening. The 10th saw a gradual decrease in moisture and instability with only isolated thunderstorms over the mountains, coastal Toledo and near San Pedro in the afternoon. Elsewhere only isolated showers developed.

Mainly fair weather prevailed during the daytime on the 11th and only isolated showers developed over the northern half of the country including the airport overnight. A low pressure system was over the northwest Caribbean Sea with a weak surface trough near the coast of Belize. This feature was shallow and did not produce any significant weather across the country. From the 12th to the 14th a light easterly to southeasterly airflow supported mostly fair and warm conditions with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the Maya Mountains.

The main feature on the 15th was a low pressure system near the western tip of Cuba that showed a high potential for tropical cyclone development. However, weather conditions continued warm and mostly dry over the country with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the Maya Mountains.

The 16th afternoon saw the formation of the first tropical depression for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season off the central coast of Florida. Later that night the depression strengthened northeast of Florida and became Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the season. Meanwhile conditions remained generally fair and warm throughout the daytime of the 17th as a moderate easterly to southeasterly airflow dominated the country. However, overnight thunderstorm activity over the south resulted in close to an inch of rainfall in Placencia and almost two inches in Punta Gorda.

The 18th started off fair and warm across the country but by afternoon a few thunderstorms developed mainly over northern and central coastal areas as a relatively moist northeasterly surface flow prevailed supported by moist and divergent upper level conditions. Showers and thunderstorms increased overnight and affected the entire country resulting in one to two inches of rainfall over northern and central areas. The 19th to the 21st saw mainly fair and warm weather except for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoons and over the south at night.

Weather conditions continued fair and warm during the 22nd morning then intense thunderstorms developed along the northwestern and western border as well as over the Toledo district in the afternoon. This activity persisted and spread to northern and central areas during the night.

Moisture decreased from the 23rd to the 25th even though a weak tropical wave crossed the country on the 24th. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the mountains during the afternoons and over the north on the evening of the 24th then over the extreme south during the night of the 25th. Elsewhere hot and dry conditions prevailed during this period.

Moisture increased slightly on the 26th as another tropical wave approached the country. Skies were cloudy in the morning with mostly layered clouds but only isolated thunderstorms occurred over the mountains in the afternoon. However showers and thunderstorms affected inland and northern areas the first part of the night then southern areas later that night with the activity continuing over the Stann Creek district through to the morning of the 27th. The tropical wave crossed the country before midday on the 27th with isolated showers and thunderstorms just south of Belize City in the morning and along the coast during the night. Cloudy conditions persisted over the country through to the 28th with isolated showers and thunderstorms affecting northern districts in the afternoon and the Toledo district during the night.

The last few days of the month saw the development of a broad cyclonic gyre over the eastern Pacific that supported the advection of deep moisture into Central America. Weather conditions remained generally fair during the daytime on the 29th with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that affected mainly the north and some central areas of the country. However, later that night intense thunderstorms and heavy persistent showers affected Belmopan and its surrounding areas as well as areas along the Hummingbird Highway as far south as Middlesex. This activity produced excessive rainfall that resulted in extreme flooding in Belmopan and along portions of the George Price Highway on the morning of the 30th.

Tropical Depression Two formed over the eastern Pacific on the 30th afternoon and was projected to move northward and dissipate over southern Guatemala. The system continued to support moisture advection over the country resulting in cloudy conditions along with a few showers and thunderstorms especially over the south at first then showers and thunderstorms increased over central areas during the night.

Tropical Depression Two-E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda early on the morning of the 31st before making landfall in southern Guatemala where it quickly dissipated over the mountains. However, its remnants continued to track slowly northward resulting in cloudy to overcast skies across the country and heavy rains with severe thunderstorms especially over central and northern portions of the country. Flooding conditions were reported in some areas including Belize City and municipalities in the north.

In summary two tropical waves crossed the country and two tropical cyclones formed outside the conventional June to November time period, namely Tropical Storm Arthur on May 16 and Tropical Storm Bertha on May 27. Tropical Depression Two-E/Tropical Storm Amanda that developed over the eastern Pacific basin dumped 12-13 inches of rain over the interior of the country at the end of May 2020.

The graphs and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperature recorded during the month of May 2020. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was well above normal over most of the country with Belmopan receiving almost five times the normal amount of rainfall for May. Meanwhile rainfall was slightly below normal along the coast of the Stann Creek district. Both daytime (maximum) and nighttime (minimum) temperatures were above normal for most of the stations sampled with only Punta Gorda recording cooler than normal nighttime temperatures.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

[Linked Image]

Monthly Maximum Temperatures

[Linked Image]

Monthly Minimum Temperatures

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Rainfall Observed: January 2020 (mm)

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Rainfall Observed: January 2020 (% Above/Below Average)

[Linked Image]


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