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Tropical Storm Gonzalo #543659
07/22/20 11:03 AM
07/22/20 11:03 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Gonzalo forms on the Eastern Caribbean. The storm is quickly strengthening moving west around 14 miles per hour. It is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow Thursday.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 43.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Marty] #543672
07/23/20 06:09 AM
07/23/20 06:09 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is presently moving through parts of the Lesser Antilles with heavier concentrations over parts of the Leeward Islands. TS Gonzalo poses NO THREAT TO BELIZE at this time. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane today, and is expected to be near or over the southern Windward Islands as a hurricane over the weekend.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Marty] #543676
07/23/20 10:54 AM
07/23/20 10:54 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
..GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday.

Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by midday Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

====================

Crown Weather;

Gonzalo Much More Disorganized Today, But Is Still Expected To Bring Tropical Storm & Possibly Hurricane Conditions To Barbados & The Southern Lesser Antilles On Saturday

I honestly didn’t expect Gonzalo to be this disorganized today. Very small systems like this are extremely difficult to forecast as they can not only strengthen very rapidly, but they can also weaken just as quickly.

Based on satellite imagery, it looks like the center of Gonzalo is not located where the deepest thunderstorm activity & now it seems the thunderstorm activity may be pulsing up & down, rather than being sustained like it was yesterday. Why did Gonzalo fall apart so quickly this morning? Best that I can tell, it looks like when Gonzalo began to really strengthen yesterday, it’s circulation began to increase in overall area. This allowed the dry air that was just outside of the protective moist bubble Gonzalo was in to invade the system. This led to the mid-level circulation becoming separated from the low-level circulation. So, in the end, Gonzalo now needs to start over in the building process & honestly it may never do so.

The track forecast of Gonzalo is the “easy” part of the forecast as a general westward course looks likely over the next few days. This will bring the center of Gonzalo across the southern Lesser Antilles during the day on Saturday with a track into the eastern and central Caribbean expected by late this weekend and early next week.

As for the intensity forecast of Gonzalo – Needless to say, it is an incredibly difficult forecast, especially considering with how quickly the storm became disorganized this morning. Even though Gonzalo is in an environment that consists of low wind shear and very warm ocean water temperatures, the overall atmospheric humidity levels are quite dry. This dry air, as I already mentioned, is affecting the storm & small systems like this can easily weaken and fall apart in an unfavorable environment like this. This is what the global models such as the European and UKMET models are showing.

One Final Thought – It is clear to me that Gonzalo “over performed” given the overall unfavorable background state of the atmosphere right now in the Tropical Atlantic. There is a large amount of dry, sinking air in place across the central and eastern Atlantic & a system forming in this type of environment is worrisome for later on in the season.

A tropical cyclone forming in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic during July is a huge red flag & it’s not a good sign at all. This says to me that we are well on our way to a very busy to hyperactive rest of the hurricane season.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Marty] #543689
07/24/20 06:08 AM
07/24/20 06:08 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

At 6:00am, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near 10.0N latitude, 52.8W longitude or about 580mls East of the southern Windward Islands. Gonzalo was moving west at 15mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Gonzalo poses NO THREAT TO BELIZE at this time.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is moving to the west at 13 mph towards the Lesser Antilles. Gonzalo is moving through a favorable environment featuring warm ocean waters and light wind shear. As a result, we expect it to continue to intensify into a hurricane on Friday. The storm is battling dry air on the western side and that is slowing any intensification. Over the weekend, wind shear is expected to increase over the system and should cause the system to lose wind intensity. In addition to the increased wind shear, dry sinking air stands in the path of Gonzalo, which may also help temper intensification; nevertheless, Gonzalo may go through the Windward Islands Saturday as a hurricane, before dissipating by early Tuesday.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Marty] #543696
07/24/20 12:00 PM
07/24/20 12:00 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Track of Gonzalo is tilting a bit south.

[Linked Image]

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter plane was 1008 mb (29.76 inches).

Re: Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Marty] #543712
07/25/20 06:16 AM
07/25/20 06:16 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

The centre of Gonzalo is now projected to pass directly over Trinidad just after midday then continue to pass about 80 miles south of Grenada sometime after 2 pm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 25 miles from the centre so this should put Grenada out of the core of the tropical-storm-force winds. However, gusty winds and or heavy rainfall can still be expected over parts of some islands from Barbados southward to Trinidad including St. Vincent, The Grenadines, Grenada, and Tobago with this update. The main core of Gonzalo is presently just over 50 miles E of Trinidad. Gonzalo poses NO THREAT TO BELIZE at this time.

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Marty] #543727
07/26/20 05:26 AM
07/26/20 05:26 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 68,069
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
What was once Tropical Storm Gonzalo has dissipated west of the Windward Islands as of Saturday evening. The remnants of Gonzalo are forecast to move generally westward across the southern Caribbean for the next couple of days. This is the last advisory being issued on this system.


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