General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS:
Present Condition: Rain and wind as the tropical wave has arrived. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail today gradually improving by tomorrow.
Advisories: *Small Craft Caution in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.*
24-hour forecast:
Cloudy at times with a few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain occurring over most places today. Activity will gradually decrease and affect mostly the south tonight.
Winds: E-NE, 10-20 kts , Gusty Sea State: Choppy-Moderate
Waves: 3-6 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook:
Some cloudy spells with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing on Friday and Friday night.
Sargassum Forecast from July 28, 2020 to August 04, 2020:
Several Sargassum mats were observed, especially over central and northern coastal areas, during the past few days. Therefore, there is a high chance of sargassum mats affecting local beaches in the coming days. San Pedro has a high probability and a major expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 6:00am Tropical Storm Isaias was centred near 17.6N and 68.5W or about 105 miles East-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Click for more...
Marine Conditions:
The Caribbean Sea
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 13N
southward and 75W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong is from 20N
southward and 82W westward, in the coastal waters of Honduras,
and inland in Belize and Guatemala.
The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from
Nicaragua southward. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N
southward and 75W westward, in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea.
Tropical Storm Isaias near 17.2N 67.9W 1003 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving NW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Isaias will move inland to 18.8N 70.2W this afternoon, 20.6N
72.9W Fri morning, 22.3N 75.5W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 77.9W Sat
morning, 25.5N 79.2W Sat afternoon, and 27.3N 80.0W Sun morning.
Tropical storm conditions will continue in the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico early this morning, then reach portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti later today.
Isaias has formed. Surface eye located by Hurricane Hunters.
While this system continues to organize & I expect to see it upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaias later today or tonight, it's forecast is highly uncertain & we are in wait and see mode right now. What I will say is that the stronger it becomes over the next 36 hours will dictate how it will be impacted by shear and possibly dry air near Florida. If it is disrupted heavily by land interaction with Hispaniola and even Cuba, then at the very most, a very weak tropical storm impact would be possible for Florida this weekend. On the other hand, if it ends up not being disrupted by land interaction, it may have a "fighting chance" to battle the shear and dry air & be more of a moderate to upper end tropical storm. All-in-all, this system has an uphill battle in front of it.
1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the Bahamas.
2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this morning and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later today and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.
3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next couple of days.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Looks as if we are presently in an upper cloud level gyro or what ever they are now calling them, basically a large area of anticlockwise air motion, which typically has many ITCZ swellups associated with it. . . It started yesterday as I indicated, with rain in a number of places, but not much in Belize, now there are many swellups all over Belize, many with rain, some rain will be very heavy. The large cloud area in the Atlantic has started to rotate and they have now called it TS ISAIAS but they expect it to go over Haiti and north of Cuba and east of Florida, so no effect for us. But there is more cloud developing just off Africa, which we must watch.
Looks as if virtually all Belize will be under heavy cloud much of the day, with many individual swellups, and many places of rain, some heavy, for all the morning.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 1.1 mm ( 0")
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have rain and an overcast sky. The almost official island udometer reads only an inch but it seems like much more. It might need calibrating. The wind is from the East at 10 mph and the sea state around our Barrier Reef is moderate. Today's expected high temperature is 86 f.
Present Condition: Wind and rain. Moist and unstable conditions have been supporting thunderstorm activity across the country today... A gradual decrease in moisture is expected during the next 12 hours or so... 24hr Forecast: Continuing mostly cloudy with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. For tonight and tomorrow morning, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, except for a few more occurring mainly over the south. Small craft caution in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. There is the possibility of localized flooding, especially near rivers and streams in the south.
Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
I have no idea how tomorrow, Friday will work out.. . Presently, there is all sorts of stuff around us. . . We could be clear of most of it, or in the thick of it tomorrow.
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AmbergrisCaye.com 
General Situation:
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