Tropical Disturbance Located About 800 Miles To The East Of The Windward Islands: A tropical disturbance now located about 800 miles to the east of the Windward Islands is showing some increase in thunderstorm activity today. I think this disturbance really needs to be watched closely once it reaches the western Caribbean a little later this coming week as development into a tropical depression/tropical storm is quite possible.
This disturbance’s fast forward motion of 20 mph will likely inhibit development over the next couple of days. The reason why is because when a disturbance is moving fast, it’s center will outrun the thunderstorm activity, so that it has a hard time to stack, spin-up and develop.
This disturbance’s forward speed may slow down once it reaches about 75 West Longitude in Caribbean & this is when we may see development and strengthening.
Taking A Look At Model Guidance – The GFS model still doesn’t look like it has a clue in terms of development & will be disregarded.
The Canadian model shows some development in the western Caribbean later this week before it tracks inland into the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico.
The European operational model also doesn’t show a whole lot in the way of development.
I think the way to go with trying to figure out development chances are the ensemble guidance.
The GFS ensemble model guidance has a fairly strong signal of tropical development in the western and northwestern Caribbean around Friday with many of the members showing strengthening as this system moves northward into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico next weekend.
The European ensemble model guidance is also showing a increasing signal for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday.
Here Are My Thoughts: While I do think development will be very slow to occur over the next couple of days or so, I also think that this disturbance is a strong contender of becoming our next named storm once it gets west of 75 West Longitude in the Caribbean.
The reason why I think that we may see development in the western Caribbean by about Thursday and Friday is because the environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development due to low wind shear and increasing moisture. At this point, I think that there is about a 50-50 chance that we will see development in the western Caribbean around Thursday or Friday.
Turning to next weekend and beyond, I do think this system will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend, however, where it goes after that will depend on the upper level weather pattern. At this point, I’m leaning more towards a track to the north towards the northern and eastern US Gulf Coast, but it wouldn’t take much shift in the weather pattern for this system to head towards the Western Gulf Coast.
Bottom Line Is That This disturbance needs to be watched very closely this coming week for signs of development.
Finally, this tropical disturbance is likely to bring squally weather to Barbados and the Windward Islands during the day on Monday.