Invest 97-L Located Just East Of The Windward Islands Has The Potential To Develop In The Western Caribbean Late This Week
Crown Weather:
A fast moving tropical disturbance (Invest 97-L) is expected to pass across Barbados and the Windward Islands this afternoon into this evening bringing squally weather. Satellite imagery today indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized. At this point, the wave axis with Invest 97-L is outrunning any robust thunderstorm activity and thus development is not expected for the time being due to this disturbance's fast forward speed.
By about Wednesday or so, the forward speed of Invest 97-L is expected to slow down and that the environmental conditions will become more favorable for development. Because of this, I think that by about Wednesday and Thursday we may see Invest 97-L begin to develop as it nears about 75 West Longitude in the central Caribbean. Development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm is quite possible once Invest 97-L pushes into the western Caribbean (near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands) towards Friday.
Taking A Look At Model Guidance - The GFS model seems to be starting to get a clue about correctly showing tropical development in the western Caribbean later this week. The latest GFS model run now shows some development of Invest 97-L in the northwestern Caribbean by about Saturday with a track across the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Beyond this, the GFS model shows minimal intensification and forecasts Invest 97-L to track from east-southeast to west-northwest from the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday to the lower Texas coast next Tuesday.
The Canadian model also waits to develop Invest 97-L until it is in the western Caribbean late this week. It then forecasts Invest 97-L to turn northwestward and move through the Yucatan Channel on Saturday and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ultimately, the Canadian model forecasts Invest 97-L to make landfall as a hurricane on the western Florida Panhandle on Sunday night.
Interestingly, the European operational model still doesn't really show a whole lot in the way of development with Invest 97-L.
I think that slow or no development of Invest 97-L is likely for the next 2 to 3 days as it tracks across Barbados and the Windward Islands this afternoon and this evening and into the eastern Caribbean during Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Thursday and Friday, the development chances of Invest 97-L will likely increase as the wind shear values will decrease and there will be increasing amounts of moisture. At this point, I think that there is about a 60 to 70 percent chance for tropical development by Thursday into Friday in the western Caribbean in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Turning to this weekend and beyond, I do think that Invest 97-L will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, however, where it goes after that will depend on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.
If Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower Texas coast early next week.
On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and western Florida early next week.
A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph and is expected to continue moving quickly westward during the next couple of days. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in some areas should continue and is likely to spread over and or around more islands later tonight into tomorrow and this should continue through tomorrow. Gusty winds are also possible over some #Leewardislands southward to just north of St Vincent while the low-pressure area moves across St. Vincent and The Grenadines and over the Caribbean Sea tonight into tomorrow.
Although this system is over 1800 miles from our shores and poses no immediate threat to the country, the National Meteorological Service of Belize will continue to monitor its progress very closely.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Still too early to tell what 97L may or may not have in store for us or the Yucatan. For today's analysis of the state of affairs and models, Levi is always worth a listen. Stay vigilant islanders.
Invest 97-L Still Has The Potential To Develop In The Western Caribbean Later This Week
Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather (Invest 97-L) seems to be slowly becoming better organized today in the eastern Caribbean. Satellite imagery indicates that the thunderstorm activity has increased again over the past few hours. With that said, the environment isn't very favorable right now for development due to wind shear conditions. Also, Invest 97-L is still moving at a fast forward speed, which is preventing development for now.
I still think that the combination of decreasing wind shear values and this system slowing down in forward speed will lead to an increasing chance for development by about Thursday and Friday once Invest 97-L reaches the western Caribbean. This means that I think that there is a decent chance that Invest 97-L will develop into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm in the western and northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday.
Taking A Look At Model Guidance - There is a lot of differences between the model guidance members on what may or may not happen with Invest 97-L. In addition, even the individual models themselves are flip flopping on their solutions with this disturbances. When the model guidance members are acting like this, it is best to use the ensemble guidance as they can weed out the noise.
The GFS ensemble model guidance shows a significant increase of its members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean by Friday night and Saturday morning. From there, the ensemble members split with the members showing a stronger storm forecasting a track north and north-northeastward towards the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline by Monday. The members that are showing a weaker storm show a system that tracks westward towards eastern Mexico and the lower Texas coast by about Tuesday.
The Canadian ensemble model guidance also seems to suggest development should occur in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday. The ensemble members then spread out once in the Gulf of Mexico with solutions ranging from a track towards the Texas coast by about Tuesday all the way to a storm that tracks northeastward across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday and then up the East Coast of the United States on Sunday and Monday.
About 70 to 75 percent of the European ensemble model members forecast development in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model is similar to the Canadian ensemble model in that its solutions range everything from a track to the Texas coast to a track towards the northern and northeastern US Gulf Coast.
These differences are telling because they say to me that the uncertainty with Invest 97-L is high.
Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that slow development is likely over the next couple of days or so as Invest 97-L tracks across the eastern and central Caribbean.
I think that by Thursday and certainly Friday that we will see the development chances of Invest 97-L increase as the wind shear values will decrease and there will be increasing amounts of moisture. At this point, I think that there is about a 80 percent chance for tropical development by Friday in the northwestern Caribbean.
Turning to this weekend and beyond, I do think that Invest 97-L will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, however, where it goes after that will depend on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think that if Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower Texas coast by about Tuesday of next week.
On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and the western coast of Florida early next week.
Bottom Line Is That even though Invest 97-L isn't doing a whole lot right now, we need to watch it very closely as it could be one of those "sleeper" systems that remain disorganized and stay undeveloped in the Caribbean and then all of a sudden develop and strengthen very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in these thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west- northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system has a medium chance of formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
NEMO Belize Rural South and the EOC continue to closely monitor the wave named 97L that the National Hurricane Center shows headed our way.
Indications are that this system may develop into a depression or a tropical storm. At this time, we do not anticipate any need for evacuation from the island for safety. We remind you to stay calm and remain vigilant.
You can expect additional updates here, but for now no further action is warranted.
On approach of any significant storm you will be advised and we will encourage voluntary evacuation to the Belmopan shelter or to your mainland family.
For those that remain behind and must go into shelter here, NEMO will open additional classrooms as well as using our backup hotel shelters so we are able to separate people by household to maintain social distancing.
Masks will be required for anyone being evacuated or seeking shelter here or on the mainland for any storm for the remainder of the season.
Hardware stores are available for delivery in the event of an approaching storm.
Watching 97L and 98L for Development During Next Few Days
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Invest 97-L Likely Will Develop In The Northwestern Caribbean Late This Week
From Crown Weather:
Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather (Invest 97-L) seems to be gradually becoming better organized today. Satellite imagery not only shows some deeper thunderstorm activity occurring, but also some hints of banding in the cloud pattern. In addition, radar imagery from Curacao reveals that any circulation Invest 97-L seems to be trying to tighten up as it pushes off of the northern coast of South America and towards the western Caribbean. This means that I think that Invest 97-L is very close to becoming a tropical depression & probably will be upgraded to one within the next day or two as it heads for the western and northwestern Caribbean.
Taking A Look At Model Guidance - It seems as if it's the global European and GFS model against all of the other models when it comes to forecasting of this disturbance. This is very frustrating because it makes me question my own analysis and makes me wonder if I'm missing something that these two models are seeing. At this point, I'm not putting much stock into these two models and their seemingly lack of development of Invest 97-L.
So, once again I'm going to use the ensemble guidance in my forecast of Invest 97-L to weed out the noise.
The GFS ensemble model guidance still shows a strong signal for tropical development from Invest 97-L by Friday night in the northwestern Caribbean. From there, the ensemble guidance members spread out with some members forecasting a north and northeastward track towards coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early next week. Other ensemble members show a track west-northwestward towards eastern Mexico and coastal Texas early next week.
The Canadian ensemble model guidance also strongly suggests Invest 97-L should develop into a tropical system by Friday in the northwestern Caribbean. The ensemble members then spread out with some of the members showing a track towards the Florida Panhandle by late this weekend. Other members show a track towards the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast by about Tuesday.
These differences are telling because they say to me that the uncertainty with Invest 97-L continues to be high.
The track model guidance seems strange to me too as the consensus guidance "loses" Invest 97-L in the western Caribbean at the end of this week.
Here Are My Thoughts: Even though Invest 97-L is undergoing increased organization and development, I think that the process to become a tropical depression and a tropical storm will still be slow to occur.
I still think that by Thursday and certainly Friday that we will see Invest 97-L develop into a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm in the northwestern Caribbean.
Turning to this weekend and beyond, while I do think that Invest 97-L is likely to track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it's track is still highly uncertain & depends on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.
As I have mentioned previously, I think that if Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower/middle Texas coast by about Tuesday of next week.
On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane in either the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and the western coast of Florida early next week.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
There is no tropical storm, as yet, that " X " simply means that INVEST 97 could develop into a cyclone or depression, but we must watch it closely, over the next few days.
Update on the tropical wave Invest 97L for San Pedro and Caye Caulker
NEMO on the island says that in the case of storm threat, shelters will be made available, and if necessary, people will be assisted with evacuation.
The latest satellite imagery are showing that showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated with the tropical wave which is now over the Central Caribbean Sea, south of Haiti. The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) gives this system an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression when it reaches the north western Caribbean Sea. If development is to occur it will likely occur before Saturday when the system is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula. The Met Service analysis of the latest model runs from two models (GFS and NAM) show the system interacting with the landmasses of Honduras/Nicaragua late Thursday night into Friday which may limit significant development. If this occurs the system could emerge into the Gulf of Honduras a weak and disorganized system. If this happens then the major threat from this system will be heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding starting on Friday and lasting through much of the weekend. The worst case scenario could be that the system tracks a little further north and avoids the landmass of Honduras/Nicaragua that would allow for a bit more strengthening into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. The stronger this system becomes, the more likely it will track north of Belize as there is a deep upper level trough to the west of the area that would pull any deeper/stronger system more northward.
The Met Service and NEMO will continue to monitor this system closely for any change in direction and development.
Stay calm and vigilant. Review your family safety plans for flooding in low lying areas for this weather event.
Tropical Depression #14 Has Formed Over The Central Caribbean
I am watching a developing tropical depression in the central Caribbean (TD #14) which is getting better organized.
It is expected that the depression will head for the Yucatan Peninsula with tropical storm conditions possible for areas including Chetumal, Cancun and Cozumel on Saturday and Saturday night.
By Sunday into Monday, this system is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico where it may be impacted in some way by the tropical storm/hurricane near South Florida. I think that since TD #13 will probably be stronger than TD #14 that it will lead to a more unfavorable environment for TD #14 due to TD #13's outflow.
On the other hand, if Tropical Depression #13 ends up being much weaker near the Bahamas and Florida, it could lead to a much more favorable environment for Tropical Depression #14 to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico.
Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I think that Tropical Depression #14 is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 12 to 18 hours or so. It is then likely to pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Saturday night and emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Once it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, it is likely to begin interacting with Tropical Depression #13. This could lead to it tracking more towards the northwestern or western Gulf of Mexico, however, these two tropical system's interactions with each other are likely to be very difficult to forecast, so stay tuned.
As it stands right now, areas from Corpus Christi, Texas to New Orleans, Louisiana may receive at least tropical storm conditions right around Tuesday and Wednesday.
Finally, I'm hoping that now we have a tropical depression formally declared that we see more consistency & more accuracy in the forecast model data because so far the big models like the GFS and European model have not done well at all with this system either.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
=====
NEMO Tropical Weather Outlook:
- At 9:00 am Tropical Depression 14 was centered near latitude 15.1N, longitude 79.7W, or about 235 miles east of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. TD 14 was moving to the West at 21mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across Central America. The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor this system.
- At 9:00 am Tropical Depression 13 was centered near latitude 16.0N, longitude 52.0W, or about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. TD 13 was moving to the WNW at 21mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.
The National Emergency Management Organization(NEMO) has just issued Advisory #1 on a potential tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean Sea
THURSDAY, 20TH AUGUST, 2020 as at 10:00 a.m.
The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby advises the general public that the tropical wave which is approaching has become better organized and is now accompanying broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.
The odds of development (as indicated by the national hurricane center) has increased to 90 percent indicating that this system is very likely to become a tropical depression later today or tonight. Movement continue to the west but most of the models show a turn to the WNW once the system reaches NE Honduras. This would suggest landfall on the Yucatan peninsula around Saturday evening. Regardless of development or whether a potential landfall occurs on the country, we need to be prepared for heavy rainfall and possible flooding. We need to continue to be on the alert and watch this system closely. The Met Service provide another update later after the new model runs and the report from the aircraft.
In accordance with your emergency plan the public is advised to remain vigilant and to be prepared for possible storm landfall over the weekend. IF the need arises for you to evacuate, move early, know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. COVID 19 Shelter Protocols and SI -119 of 2020 shall be adhered to. You must wear a mask, people showing symptoms will be contained in a separate section of the shelter building, hand washing /sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens and Managers will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis garbage properly disposed of. Note. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and cough /sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MoH) staff will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers/ Volunteers) MUST use PPE. The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:
Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140;
Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or Mr. Leiva at 614 7177
Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614 4735;
San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865;
Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Pollard at 6143244;
Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or Mr. Eiley at 624 2365
Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 6148604 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891;
Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence),
Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632
Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for
Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393
NEMO HQ alerted its committees since Sunday 16th August and has been posting alert notices on our website. All district and city emergency committees met on Tuesday. Also we have been receiving and redistributing relief supplies and PPE sent by CDEMA. PPEs from the Ministry of Health will be collected and distributed today to compliment what we already have in our five warehouses across the country. NEMO remains in close communication with the national met service. We don't anticipate the need to evacuate San Pedro and the cayes if it becomes necessary the National Evacuation Committee, like all other national committees, are ready to put their plan into action. Note, we have conducted three very well coordinated evacuation of people from San Pedro during their first lockdown. NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO. We implore the public not to panic due to the existing suffering and hardship already brought on by COVID 19 are stressful enough.
The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby advises the general public that the center of tropical depression #14 was centered near latitude 14.7N, longitude 81.7W or about 100 miles ESE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua border and 475 ESE of Belize City. The depression was moving to the west at 17mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The official forecast is for TD#14 to continue moving westward for the next 12 hours or so then to recurve to the WNW and eventually NW later on Friday. The system is also forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by Friday. On this track the system is forecast to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, north of Belize, late on Saturday. If the system takes the southernmost path of the forecast cone it will make landfall just north of the Belize/Mexico border. In that case, the northern parts of the country would feel the greatest impact including heavy rainfall of up to 2-4 inches and gusty winds. However, the remainder of the country could also experience heavy rainfall and possible flooding from the outer bands of this system. The National Meteorological Service will continue to monitor this system very closely and update NEMO accordingly.
If the situation changes for the worse NEMO would activate its national mechanism and declare Phase II - Red I to put in effect a provisional Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Belize which means (1) people will need to put their family plan into action, (2) the public would be advised to shelter in place in a safe building, (3) school managements would be notified that NEMO needs to access schools as shelters, (4) a price freeze would be issued for all goods, (5) public and private essential agencies and utility companies would be informed to release their employees to seek shelter for their safety, (5) road infrastructure works would have to prioritize actions that will enable mass evacuation and (6) media houses and telephone service providers would be advised to secure their communication infrastructure, including other actions.
All in high risk areas are reminded IF the need arises for you to evacuate, move early, know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. COVID 19 Shelter Protocols and SI -119 of 2020 shall be adhered to. You must wear a mask, people showing symptoms will be isolated in a separate section of the shelter building, hand washing / sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens and Managers will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis, garbage properly disposed of. Proper cleaning and disinfection cannot be emphasized enough. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and exercise cough / sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MOH) staff will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers / Volunteers) MUST use PPE. The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:
1. Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140; 2. Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or Mr. Leiva at 614 7177 3. Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614 4735; 4. San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865; 5. Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Pollard at 614 3244; 6. Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or Mr. Eiley at 624 2365 7. Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891; 8. Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence), 9. Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632 10. Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for 11. Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393
We don't anticipate the need to evacuate San Pedro and the Cayes. NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert and start putting your plan into action. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.
===================== From 8pm Thursday night:
The high level cloud from that Depression will be coming over Belize over night, but I don't think the rain will be getting to us until tomorrow. Also, it looks as if its rain and activity is rapidly reducing, not so many swellups in it, it is meeting up with high level from the Pacific hurricane and being deflected to the north and braking up. I am not expecting much, if any rain from it tonight, and possibly not much tomorrow either.
Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect.
2The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days
Tropical Depression #14 Will Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To The Northern Yucatan Peninsula By Late Saturday
Tropical Depression #14: 8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics: Location: 16.2 North Latitude, 84.2 West Longitude or about 160 miles to the east of Isla Roatan, Honduras. Maximum Winds: 35 mph. Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 Millibars or 29.77 Inches. Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.
Tropical Depression #14 is very close to tropical storm strength. Even though it seems that TD 14 has a fairly well defined circulation, it lacks in deep convection near the center. With that said, there is banding noted on satellite imagery. This means that I do think that this system will be upgraded to a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon or tonight.
Gradual strengthening is then expected through Saturday before this system moves across the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.
It is expected that Tropical Depression 14 will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as probably a tropical storm. There are uncertainties, however, as to how much TD 14 will strengthen as it tracks northward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected that wind shear is expected to increase by Monday night and Tuesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico and this will likely lead to any strengthening to stop.
Another thing that will affect the track and strength of TD 14 is its interaction with TD 13/Laura. This interaction could lead to Laura pushing TD 14 further west towards eastern Mexico or allow TD 14 to speed up and strengthen and head for southern and southeastern Louisiana. The interaction between 2 systems this close together in the Gulf of Mexico is extremely rare and there are more unknowns than knowns on what may happen.
Bottom Line Is That it is likely that TD 14 will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a tropical storm and may try to strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks towards either the Texas or Louisiana coast.
I urge everyone along the Texas and Louisiana coast to prepare as if a hurricane is coming on Tuesday. The uncertainties with TD 14 are very large and impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coast could be anything from just some squally weather to a full-blown major hurricane.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches)
It is a bit of a mystery why the depression has struggled to develop much central convection, given a seemingly low-shear environment and warm waters. Since these conditions are expected to continue for the next few days, intensification is still indicated in the official forecast, although the rate of strengthening has been muted a bit while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula given its current structure. After the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, many of the models still show the cyclone reaching hurricane intensity in about 3 days, including the intensity consensus, and that possibility is still shown in the NHC forecast. By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by 30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The official forecast has been reduced at that time, although it's noteworthy to mention that it still lies above all the guidance on day 4.
Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could still be near hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.
The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated Sunday and Monday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.
The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.
====================
TD 14 Will Sail By Belize, Forecasts Say
Last night, we told you about Tropical Depression 14. That's the storm that formed several days ago off the coast of Nicaragua and quickly began gaining strength.
Forecast models were suggesting that could make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, which meant that Belize, specifically the northern districts, would have been experiencing tropical storm force winds and large volumes of rain.
Well, the updated information on this storm suggests that its path has shifted a bit more east, which means Belize may not be as heavily impacted, as was initially feared. But, you should still prepare for bad weather, related to this system's outer bands.
The experts believe that once it crosses over the Yucatan, it with gather strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and it will then head to the southern coast of the United States as a category 1 hurricane.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Herrito to Cancun, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and that same area of Punta Herrito to Cancun, Mexico. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north and west of Cancun, all the way to Dzilam de Bravo, Mexico.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast by tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane conditions are also possible later in the day.
This afternoon, the center of TD-14 was located over the Western Caribbean Sea about 180 miles east-northeast of Isla Roatan, Honduras. Its maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour, with higher gusts.
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Marco is centered near 18.7N 84.9W at 22/0300 UTC or about 155 miles SE of Cozumel, Mexico moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 230 nm in the northern semicircle. Seas are 12 feet within 30 nm of the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, a slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening.
Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.
The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
Our depression has intensified and starting to move north faster and has now been classified as a storm TROPICAL STORM MARCO as it goes up past western Cuba. The other one over Haiti TROPICAL STORM LAURA has also strengthened. . . Interestingly they expect the two to cross paths twice, 2 days later, in the north Gulf area, as they both go over New Orleans area, both, still close to Cat.1 The Pacific hurricane has now completely collapsed.
The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.