General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS:
Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Mainly fair conditions prevail with an increase in showery activity expected tomorrow.
Advisories: *Residents, especially those inland are advised to remain hydrated.*
24-hour forecast:
Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, developing mainly along the coast this morning and inland this afternoon. Then showers and thunderstorms will be isolated at first mainly over southern districts and increasing along the coast tonight.
Winds: Light and Variable Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook:
A few showers and thunderstorms will affect most places on Friday, then mainly coastal areas Friday night.
Sargassum Forecast from September 22, 2020 to September 30, 2020:
No significant amounts of sargassum was seen over the area on the latest satellite imagery. However, there is still the chance for smaller mats to affect the country in the coming days with minimal impacts. San Pedro has a low probability and a mnimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.
Click for more...
Marine Conditions:
The Caribbean Sea
A stationary front passes through 22N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
cutting across Cuba, to 25N86W in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N
to the stationary front between 60W and Hispaniola. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally strong is in
the interior and coastal waters areas of Cuba.
The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The
GFS model for 250 mb, and the water vapor satellite imagery,
show a trough that extends from the south central Caribbean Sea,
toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea and central Panama.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated to locally strong is from 15N
southward from 70W westward.
Northerly swell previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and an early
season cold front in the western Atlantic will continue through
Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through this evening. Mainly
moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through the forecast
period, with the exception of fresh, possibly locally strong, winds
near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta, centered inland over Mississippi.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
A relatively quiet period coming to the Atlantic
Jeff Masters
None of the top three models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting formation of any new Atlantic tropical cyclones over the coming five days. As IBM meteorologist Michael Ventrice tweeted on Sunday, the Atlantic this week is experiencing passage of an atmospheric disturbance called a convectively suppressed Kelvin wave, which creates dry, sinking air unfavorable for tropical storm formation.
Consider that respite a break after seeing 10 named storms form this month - an all-time record for the month of September.
The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Gamma. Let's hope we don't see it until October.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have rain. The sea around our barrier reef is glassy from a 2 kt. South breeze. The expected high temperature for the day is 90f.
That high level and mid-level Caribbean cloud I was mentioning a couple of days ago, is now over northern Belize. May have caused over night rain to a number of places in the north and possibly more to come this morning, over the next few hours. Presently, there is no Caribbean winds as such, just a slow drift up from the south.
Looks as if it will be a cloudy day, with some rain, some heavy, for the north, but nearly clear skies for the south, most of Cayo and the rest of the south. Clouds building there, later this morning, probably no rain in the south today.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 26°C 79°F Yesterday max. 34°C 93°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")
Those high level rain making clouds are now leaving Belize. General clouds are now forming as per normal morning activity. No indication of any rain around, but swellups could develop this afternoon.
Present Condition: Clear skies. Warm and mainly fair weather prevails. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, developing mainly over northern and inland areas this afternoon; and then a few more will develop over coastal and offshore areas tonight and tomorrow morning.
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