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Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 #545215
09/30/20 06:09 AM
09/30/20 06:09 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: *A small craft caution rmains in effect for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.*
24-hour forecast: Isolated showers or thunderstorms will develop around the country this morning, then will increase along with periods of rain this afternoon and tonight.
Winds: W-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: A similar trend will occur on Thursday and Thursday night.
Sargassum Forecast from September 29, 2020 to October 07, 2020: Latest observations do not show significant amounts of Sargassum in the area. However, there is still the chance that a few small mats could drift into our area during the next few days with minimal impacts. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in the next few days. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is moving over the west Caribbean, while another one is approaching Puerto Rico. Across the southwest Caribbean, the extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N between 75W-83W with scattered to numerous moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trade winds across most of the basin except east of 76W, where fresh to strong winds are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean through Thu morning. The tropical wave along 77W will move over the Gulf of Honduras by Thu evening inducing fresh to strong winds and building seas. There is a medium chance for this feature to evolve into a tropical cyclone through the next 5 days.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
24° C
75° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
21° C
71° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
High: 9:06 AM Low: 3:39 PM
High: 9:29 PM Low: 3:39 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:42 AM Moonrise: 5:20 PM
Sunset: 5:41 PM Moonset: 5:30 AM (Thu)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545216
09/30/20 06:10 AM
09/30/20 06:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward to west-northwestward over the next few days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to monitor forecast models that show a broad area of low pressure forming over the Northwest Caribbean sea and then move west-northwestward towards the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize this weekend.

The latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows the low pressure system moving near the Northeast Coast of Honduras early on Friday. It then slowly develops in 24 hours and moves west-northwest crossing over northern Belize early on Saturday morning.

Worst case scenario at the moment is that either a tropical depression or weak tropical storm makes landfall over northern parts of the country early on Saturday morning. If this scenario pans out, the major threat foreseen at the moment will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall with possibility of flash flooding and landslides.

This is subject to change as we go along so we will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently the National Hurricane Center gives this system a medium chance (50%) of development in 5 days. We will continue monitoring and update you accordingly.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


Reports have begun circulating of a weather system that may be poised to affect portions of Belize towards the end of the week. Maps of predictions have been circulating on social media platforms, but you may want to hold back on the umbrellas for now. According to Meteorologist Ronald Gordon, the system is merely a prediction and is not an actual weather disturbance on their radar. Gordon stressed that while the system poses no imminent danger to Belize the public is reminded to always be prepared and stay alert.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545217
09/30/20 06:40 AM
09/30/20 06:40 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,181
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning, after a night of rain we have a calm sea around our barrier reef from a Northern breeze at 4 mph. Today's expected high temperature is 87 f.

sept 30.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545218
09/30/20 09:45 AM
09/30/20 09:45 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There has been a significant change to our weather developing over the last few days. Being caused by the first fold front, coming down from the north. It has no got as far as close to north Yucatan, and even causing the regular Pacific high level cloud to roll over towards the Yucatan. The effect nearer to us, is that the regular small developing white clouds are moving over central and south Belize from the west. This has encouraged a strong SW "Tiger" wind this morning. There was a more typical swellup and rain go over southern Belize from the NE, but that has long since passed. Despite the measured temperatures still showing way higher than normal for this time of the year, the actual feel temperatures have started to come down.

Looks like today will be mainly sunny, with white clouds developing, but moving in the wrong direction, not expecting much rain, although there is still a risk of NE high level swellups, presently more likely in the north.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 25°C 76°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545223
09/30/20 11:42 AM
09/30/20 11:42 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545225
09/30/20 11:58 AM
09/30/20 11:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Possible rain might come in to some coastal areas and the north.
Cool air pushing in from the NW

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Relatively moist and unstable conditions will continue over the area.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms around this country this afternoon and evening, then mostly along coastal and offshore areas later tonight and tomorrow morning.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 30, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545226
09/30/20 10:41 PM
09/30/20 10:41 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There is a very large ITCZ activity in the central Caribbean, just south of Jamaica.
A long way from Belize, but we have to keep watch on things like this, this time of the year, storms can develop fast and just on our door step. The hurricane people do not have any storms or even areas of interest for any part of the Atlantic or Caribbean.

View of our Corozal Bay - September 30th, 2020. Photo by the Corozal Daily

[Linked Image]

====================

Monthly Weather Summary, September 2020

National Meteorological Service of Belize

September is typically a wet month for the country of Belize. It also coincides with the peak of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season and a significant amount of the historical tropical cyclones that have affected the country occurred during the month of September. Apart from tropical cyclones, other systems that typically affect Belize during the month of September include tropical waves, Tropical Upper Troposheric Troughs (TUTTs) and at times cold fronts and frontal shear lines affect the country as early as September.

The morning of September first 2020 saw the development of Tropical Storm Nana over the central Caribbean Sea, with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Tropical Storm Nana was moving west at 18mph and was projected to make landfall on Belize, prompting a tropical storm watch for the entire coastline of the country. In the evening, the tropical storm watch was upgraded to a hurricane watch as the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center was for the system to become a hurricane before making landfall. However, mainly fair and warm weather prevailed over most areas on that day. At 9am on the second of September a hurricane warning was issued from Belize City to the southern border as the projection was for a category 1 hurricane to make landfall near southern Belize within 24 hours. Tropical Storm Nana had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and continued to track westward at 17 mph. Isolated thunderstorms and showers started to affect northern districts in the afternoon then coastal areas by early evening. At 6pm Tropical Storm Nana was about 100 miles east-southeast of Belize City and at 9pm, was about 48 miles east of Dangriga Town and about 60 miles southeast of Belize City. At that time Nana was upgraded to a hurricane as maximum sustained winds had increased to near 75 mph. In Belize City, winds were gusting to near tropical storm force strength and the projected area for landfall was south of Dangriga, and near to Hopkins village in the Stann Creek District. Hurricane Nana made landfall around 11:45pm in this general area. Some reports suggest hurricane force winds occurred in the Hopkins area and a weather station at Carrie Bow Caye, reported sustained winds of 61mph with gust of up to 75 mph.

Hurricane Nana weakened to a tropical storm soon after landfall, with gusty winds impacting mostly inland areas and heavy rainfall mainly over the Toledo district. Later that morning of the 3rd the storm was further downgraded to a tropical depression over the southwest portion of the country. Winds had decreased but heavy rainfall continued to affect the Toledo district.

The approach of a tropical wave on the 4th led to an increase in moisture resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms around the country that continued on the 5th during the passage of the wave. Showers and thunderstorms increased on the night of the 5th through to the early morning of the 6th with the activity gradually decreasing during the day.

A slack pressure pattern dominated across the area from the 7th through to the 11th and conditions were relatively moist. Showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated during the period except for a few showers and thunderstorms that affected most areas during the night of the 9th.

The second tropical wave for the month crossed the country around midnight on the 12th and supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly over the Orange Walk district and over southern coastal areas with only isolated activity later that morning. Conditions continued relatively moist on the 13th supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms inland, north and south in the afternoon.

Moisture decreased over the area from the 14th to the 20th and a slack pressure gradient maintained light and variable winds. Warm and mostly fair weather prevailed from the 14th to the 17th with only isolated thunderstorms and isolated showers inland in the afternoons and over the Toledo district at nights. A warning for severe thunderstorms was issued after mid-morning on the 18th as strong thunderstorms affected most areas of the country except the Toledo district. This warning was discontinued by early evening as only isolated thunderstorms and isolated showers developed along the coast and over the south during the latter part of the evening. Conditions continued warm and mostly fair with only isolated activity on the 19th and 20th.

Generally fair conditions prevailed across the country from the 21st through to the 24th. Showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated with a few more along with isolated thunderstorms at nights over the Toledo district. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms occurred mostly over northern and coastal areas on the 25th as a low center dominated the country. The 26th to the 28th saw a return to mostly dry conditions during the daytime with only isolated thunderstorm activity over the mountains in the afternoon and over southern districts during the night time.

The last two days of the month were relatively moist as a pre-frontal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula supported a light easterly to northeasterly airflow over the area. Showers and thunderstorms affected mostly northern and central areas on the 29th then spread to other areas of the country on the 30th.

In summary, on September 2nd the country experienced its first hurricane landfall for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, namely Hurricane Nana. The strongest winds occurred north of the storm’s center and the heaviest rainfall occurred south of the center in Corazon village, Toledo district where 144mm (5.7inches) was recorded. Although the country received some rainfall associated with Hurricane Nana and the passage of two tropical waves, the total rainfall recorded for September 2020 was mostly below normal. The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was below normal for most of the country except for Towerhill in the Orange Walk district that recorded slightly above normal rainfall. In terms of maximum temperatures all of the stations sampled show higher than average maximum/daytime temperatures while minimum/nighttime temperatures were above normal for all the stations except for Towerhill in the north and Punta Gorda in the south.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

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Monthly Maximum Temperatures

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Monthly Minimum Temperatures

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Rainfall Observed: September 2020 (mm)

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Rainfall Observed: September 2020 (% Above/Below Average)

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F4C0753D-54D3-4D23-BD01-FCFA0F678A0F.pngCE57340D-DC0C-41B2-89CF-511DABA0D2D0.png

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