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Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020 #545242
10/01/20 06:09 AM
10/01/20 06:09 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Moist and unstable conditions continue over the area.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms increasing around the country this afternoon and tonight.
Winds: N-NW, 00-10 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is for cloudy skies with a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially over northern, central and offshore areas.
Sargassum Forecast from September 29, 2020 to October 07, 2020: Latest observations do not show significant amounts of Sargassum in the area. However, there is still the chance that a few small mats could drift into our area during the next few days with minimal impacts. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea or extreme Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night or Friday, with a high chance of a tropical depression forming in the next 5 days. The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to monitor the progression of this sytem as it moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over much of the eastern and central Caribbean this morning between high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure related to the tropical wave in the western Caribbean described in the section above. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are also noted across the central Caribbean, where the E trade winds converge with SE winds closer to the axis of the tropical wave. Observations from Leeward Islands show brief episodes of fresh to strong winds in fast-moving rain squalls.

Showers and thunderstorms may increase over the Windward Islands and adjacent Caribbean waters later today as the tropical wave near 57W moves into the area accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds and seas may increase over the northwest Caribbean through Sat depending on the development and track of the low pressure in that area. This may tighten the pressure gradient enough to support fresh to strong trade winds south of Hispaniola by late Fri. Otherwise, little change is expected through early next week.

  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
19° C
66° F
High: 9:42 AM Low: 4:06 PM
High: 9:52 PM Low: 4:18 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:43 AM Moonset: 5:30 AM
Sunset: 5:40 PM Moonrise: 5:54 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Last edited by Marty; 10/02/20 06:12 AM.
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545243
10/01/20 06:10 AM
10/01/20 06:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the next several days where environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the central or western Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave with robust shower and thunderstorm activity is moving into the western Caribbean and will interact with a front draped over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by Friday. This is expected to become more organized as an area of low pressure forms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the day on Friday and into Saturday.

The development of this area of low pressure could lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm during the upcoming weekend as the system moves northwest near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Though it remains possible the low tracks across the Yucatan which would help to limit or potentially inhibit development. This potential system may then move southwest into the eastern Bay of Campeche early next week.

Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall leading to the risk for flash flooding will develop across the Cayman Islands through Friday as well as portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico and Cuba into the weekend. All residents and interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system.

[Linked Image]

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[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545245
10/01/20 06:46 AM
10/01/20 06:46 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,497
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a heavy overcast sky after a night of rain. The sea around our barrier reef is calm from a Northwind at 6 mph.

oct 1st.jpg
Last edited by elbert; 10/01/20 06:48 AM.

White Sands Dive Shop
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545246
10/01/20 08:17 AM
10/01/20 08:17 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Not much Caribbean wind anywhere. The cool air from the north is only over the Yucatan and Guatamala now, warmer air pushing up from Honduras. The high level from the Pacific, SW is fighting its way up over the Gulf and into the north Atlantic, leaving much of the States in open sky cold air. That very large ITCZ swellup in the Caribbean broke up and dissipated in many smaller areas, but now one of those areas has reformed into a large rain area just off Honduras.

Looks like we will have a mixture of sun, low cloud, high cloud and a significant chance of some rain in a few places.

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 27C 80F Yesterday max. 32C 90F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")

That large ITCZ area broke up over night, but there is a new one just off Honduras. Now INVEST 91L

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This is where Hattie developed.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545253
10/01/20 12:23 PM
10/01/20 12:23 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Moist and unstable conditions prevail over the country as a tropical wave approaches.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms around the country this afternoon, increasing especially over inland and south this evening, then over northern and offshore areas later tonight and tomorrow morning.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 1, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545258
10/01/20 02:25 PM
10/01/20 02:25 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
That large ITCZ area off Honduras has broken up. But now causing other areas just off the Belize coast and its winds now causing swellups and possibly rain in several parts of Belize. More might come in over night, or tomorrow. Tomorrow, Friday, may be a rainy day.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

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