Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the next several days where environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the central or western Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave with robust shower and thunderstorm activity is moving into the western Caribbean and will interact with a front draped over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by Friday. This is expected to become more organized as an area of low pressure forms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the day on Friday and into Saturday.
The development of this area of low pressure could lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm during the upcoming weekend as the system moves northwest near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Though it remains possible the low tracks across the Yucatan which would help to limit or potentially inhibit development. This potential system may then move southwest into the eastern Bay of Campeche early next week.
Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall leading to the risk for flash flooding will develop across the Cayman Islands through Friday as well as portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico and Cuba into the weekend. All residents and interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system.