Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Drier and more stable conditions affecting the area.
Cloudy spells with isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Winds: W-NW, 10-20 kts Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
For Monday and Monday night is for no major changes.
Sargassum Forecast from September 29, 2020 to October 07, 2020:
Latest observations do not show significant amounts of Sargassum in the area. However, there is still the chance that a few small mats could drift into our area during the next few days with minimal impacts. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 3:00 am Tropical Storm Gamma was centered near latitude 22.0N, longitude 88.2W, or about 110 miles ENE of PROGRESO, Mexico. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Click for more...
The Caribbean Sea
T.S. Gamma and tropical waves are in the central Caribbean. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from 11N74W
to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is active from 13N- 15N between 71W-77W. Isolated
thunderstorms continue to impact the Virgin Islands westward into
Puerto Rico. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across most
of the Caribbean with fresh winds near the Greater Antilles and
light winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are from 3-6 ft across most
of the basin with upwards of 8 ft near the low along the tropical
wave, and 5 to 7 ft near the Yucatan Channel
Gamma will continue to move NW into the south-central Gulf,
allowing winds and seas over the Yucatan Channel to diminish
through Sun. The focus turns to the development and track of the
low pressure south of Haiti There is a high chance this low may
form into a tropical depression or tropical storm through next
several days as the low moves west- northwest through the
northwest Caribbean, south of Cuba.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico.
A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southeast of Jamaica. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system should move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today and Monday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development is not expected beyond that time due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2020
#545309 10/04/2007:34 AM10/04/2007:34 AM
The TS GAMMA is presently classified only as a weak Tropical Storm, but I am seeing a lot of energy there. They reckon it will make a sharp turn to the west soon, if it does, it could either gain in strength, or be dissipated by the cool air still coming down from the north. In either case, we will still have some of its high cloud effects close to north Belize. The north cool winds are continuing to send normal clouds over Belize from the west, but there are high level clouds from the east, mainly of the south half of Belize, with some significant swellups, presently off the coast. There is a very strong surface wind from the SW at present.
Looks as if again, we will have variable conditions, low clouds, high clouds, some sunshine, particularly in the north and a possibility of some rain later.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 30°C 87°F Yesterday Rain 16 mm ( 0.6")
Two different high level winds over north Belize, not clashing with each other. The south area high level winds are not presently causing any rain on land. But the cool air clouds from the west are beginning to clump in larger clouds, so could develop into lightning or rain this afternoon in some places. The surface wind continues very strongly from the SW
This wind speed is getting close to storm force winds sometimes.
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy. Mainly fair weather conditions prevail over the area. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy skies at times. Showers or thunderstorms, if any, will be isolated.
A small craft caution is in effect for occasionally gusty winds and locally rough seas.
Have we got another one in the Caribbean, below Jamaica, that could develop?
The hurricane people now do suspect this other one to develop fairly fast, but stay north of this first one, so they do not expect it to be any threat to Belize. . . But they are suggesting it could hit New Orleans in a few days time as a Cat.2 Hurricane yet again. Ouch.!
To make it worse, TS Gamma is going to be giving New Orleans rain first, in the next couple of days. This this new storm hurricane "Delta" hitting New Orleans around the 9 - 10 October.
Invest 92-L Located Over The Central Caribbean Is Very Likely To Become A Tropical Depression & Then A Tropical Storm By Or Before Tuesday In The Northwestern Caribbean
Invest 92-L, which is a tropical disturbance that is located over the central Caribbean, continues to become gradually better organized today. Satellite imagery indicates there has been some improvement in the upper level outflow and there has been some increase in the deeper thunderstorm activity.
Invest 92-L is being impacted by northeast and east-northeast wind shear of 15 to 25 knots and this shear will likely lead to slow development until this system reaches the northwestern Caribbean on Tuesday. This means that I think that we should probably see Invest 92-L strengthen into a tropical depression and very likely a tropical storm by about Tuesday.
The track model guidance continues to be quite aggressive with the forecast intensity of Invest 92-L. 7 out of the 10 intensity models forecast this system will become a hurricane by Wednesday as it’s entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance also suggest that there is the potential for this system to become a Category 2 or even a Category 3 hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by about Thursday and Friday.
The latest GFS model guidance forecast (12Z run) now forecasts Invest 92-L to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to make landfall on the Mississippi and Alabama coast as a hurricane on Friday.
Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 92-L: I think that it is very likely (90-plus percent chance) that Invest 92-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm by or before Tuesday. From there, the environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening and possible significant strengthening when this system reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. This means that I think that it is quite likely that we will probably have a hurricane in the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico perhaps as soon as Wednesday.
By late this week through next weekend, Invest 92-L likely will be pulled to the north-northeast and even to the northeast by a trough of low pressure pushing eastward from the central United States. This could lead to this system making landfall somewhere between extreme southeastern Louisiana and the Big Bend area of northwest Florida next weekend.
The question then becomes how strong could this system be when it makes landfall. I do think that this system will probably be on a weakening trend as it approaches the Gulf Coast due to decreasing ocean water temperatures and increasing wind shear. With that said, there’s the possibility that Invest 92-L will be moving in the same direction as the wind shear leading to a temporarily favorable environment on Friday and this may halt any weakening until it makes landfall. So, while I think it’s highly unlikely that this system will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall, it is possible that it could still be a hurricane when it moves inland somewhere between extreme southeastern Louisiana and the Big Bend area of Florida on Saturday.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020
Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined. The associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been some increase in convection just south of the estimated center. The earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Invest 92-L Has Been Upgraded To Potential Tropical Cyclone #26 In The Central Caribbean
Tropical Storm Warnings Have Been Issued For The Cayman Islands & A Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued For Western Cuba. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 92-L to Potential Tropical Cyclone #26. This means that while this disturbance doesn’t yet have a closed circulation, it is extremely likely that it will develop one & be upgraded to a Tropical Storm late Monday or on Tuesday when it is near the Cayman Islands.
Beyond this, it looks very likely that this system will strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night into Wednesday as it nears the Yucatan Channel and pushes into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. By late this week into next weekend (October 9-October 10), it is possible that a hurricane may be approaching the Gulf Coast somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The full discussion I posted earlier today explains everything I am thinking in regards to track and strength.