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Hurricane Delta #545326
10/05/20 10:15 AM
10/05/20 10:15 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Delta Will Likely Strengthen To A Hurricane By Tuesday Morning & Then A Major Hurricane By Wednesday Morning

Crown Weather:

Tropical Storm Delta:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 16.4 North Latitude, 78.4 West Longitude or about 270 miles to the southeast of Grand Cayman.
Maximum Winds: 40 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 Millibars or 29.65 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 9 mph.

Satellite imagery and estimated wind data from satellite imagery indicates that Delta is becoming better organized today with banding evident and deep thunderstorm activity occurring near the center of the storm. This organization and strengthening is occurring much quicker than what was anticipated and I do think that Delta will become a hurricane by Tuesday morning, if not before then. In addition, there is the possibility that this storm could reach Category 3 strength by the time it reaches the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday morning. All signs are pointing towards a rapidly strengthening Delta over the next couple of days or so.

The center of Delta seems to be reforming further south into the deeper thunderstorm activity near 16.4 North Latitude, 78.3 West Longitude. A general west-northwest to northwest track is expected through Thursday. At the same time this is occurring, little or no wind shear and a very favorable environment is expected along the path of Delta through Wednesday and rapid intensification seems likely. The rapid intensification index from the track intensity guidance forecasts not only a 60 percent chance for a 24 hour increase of 30 mph in strength, but a whopping 62 percent chance for a 75 mph increase in strength in just 72 hours!!

So, by the time Delta reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday, I do think that it will likely be at least a Category 3 hurricane.

Beyond this, an upper level trough of low pressure is expected develop across the southern Plains States by late this week. This will cause Delta to turn north and even northeastward once it heads north of 26 North Latitude on Thursday morning. How sharp of a turn to the north and northeast will depend on both the interaction of the storm with the upper level trough and its interaction with Gamma. Right now, it seems that Delta may temporarily head westward on Wednesday as it interacts with Gamma. By Thursday, however, a turn back to the northwest and north seems likely.

The European ensemble guidance has shifted further west with many members pointing towards a track into southern Louisiana rather than southeastern Louisiana or the southern Mississippi coast. This may have to do with this model forecasting more interaction with Gamma, which would cause a longer westward track before that turn back to the northwest and north. With that said, the European model guidance tends to have a westward bias and it may be too far west with its forecast track.

The GFS ensemble model guidance suggests much more of a southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi impact on Friday.

The track model guidance all suggest a southeastern Louisiana impact on Friday.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the further west tracks as posed by the latest European ensemble guidance are too far west. So, I think the current guidance for a southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi landfall on Friday seems more reasonable based on the expected interaction with the upper level trough of low pressure. Given that it will be interacting with that trough, it is possible that a further east track towards the Alabama coastline and the Florida Panhandle is certainly in play.

As for intensity, I think that Delta will probably move across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday into Thursday. Once Delta moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the Gulf Coast, it will encounter increasing wind shear, cooler ocean water temperatures and some dry continental air. This likely means that Delta will probably weaken later Thursday into Friday as it moves onshore somewhere between the southeastern Louisiana coast and the Florida Panhandle.

With that said, it is possible that Delta may move in the same direction as the upper level wind shear, which will lead to a temporarily favorable environment on Friday and this may halt any weakening, even though it is moving over cooler ocean water temperatures.

This means that I think the range of intensity possibilities at landfall are from a 85 mph hurricane to a 110 mph hurricane.

To Sum It Up Ė I think that Delta will make landfall somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle on Friday as anywhere from a 85 mph to a 110 mph hurricane.

Forecast Impacts: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Cayman Islands from late this afternoon through tonight and into Tuesday morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected across far western Cuba on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Hurricane conditions are a possibility, as well as the potential for a storm surge and very heavy rainfall across southern and southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle starting Thursday night and continuing through Friday.

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NEMO Advisory #1 Tropical Storm Delta
MONDAY, 05 OCTOBER, 2020 as at 11:00 AM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby informs the general public that Tropical Storm Delta is located over the Central Caribbean Sea just south of Jamaica. Delta was centered near latitude 16.4N, longitude 78.6W or about 135 miles south of Negril, Jamaica. Delta was moving to the west at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

The forecast is for Delta to turn toward the west-northwest later today and then toward the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On this track the system is expected to be near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday morning and then approach the western tip of Cuba late on Tuesday as a category 1 hurricane. The forecast models are in very good agreement that this system will move in the projected direction and as such the impacts on Belize from this system will be minimal.

The Met Service and NEMO will continue to monitor this system. The public is advised to remain vigilant. This advisory is issued as a precaution due to the proximity and direction of movement of Tropical Storm Delta. The public is advised to closely monitor Tropical Storm Delta even though the models are saying it is not assessed as being a direct threat to Belize at this time. It is in our zone and these systems can be unpredictable so out of precaution it must be monitored closely.

Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545337
10/05/20 07:19 PM
10/05/20 07:19 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...

Track moves west.....

Location: 16.5 N 79.6 W Movement: WNW at 7 mph
Wind: 75mph Pressure: 980 mb

They have revised their estimated tracking for now Hurricane DELTA The track is now coming nearer to the Yucatan and at higher hurricane strength. Looks as if they are saying Cat.3 as it passes very close to Cancun. Its winds will not significantly effect us, if the current track holds. But clouds yes, and possibly rain in a day or two's time. Unlike the earlier storm, which was very wide, this Hurricane DELTA has a very tight, compact centre, so it is able to spin up very fast and is now, already almost a hurricane. Somehow, it has sucked spin energy from Gamma. We really must watch it. .. So must all of the Yucatan and then New Orleans.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55 kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb, much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an 18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours, increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge threat to a portion of that area.

The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf Coast.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from data provided by the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

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NEMO Advisory #2: Category 1 Hurricane Delta
MONDAY, 05 OCTOBER, 2020 as at 6:30 PM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby informs the general public that Hurricane Delta is located over the Central Caribbean Sea just south of Jamaica. Delta was centered near latitude 16.5N, longitude 79.6W or about 120 miles south of Negril, Jamaica. Delta is now moving to the west-northwest at 8 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 75mph.

The forecast models remain in agreement for Delta to continue to move west-northwest and then toward the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On this track the system is expected to be near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday morning and then approach the western tip of Cuba late on Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane or stronger. The forecast models are in agreement that this system will move in the projected direction and as such the impacts on Belize from this system should be minimal.

The Met Service and NEMO will continue to monitor this system. The public is advised to remain vigilant. This advisory is issued as a precaution due to the proximity and direction of movement of Hurricane Delta. The public is advised to closely monitor Hurricane Delta even though the models are saying it is not assessed as being a direct threat to Belize at this time. Hurricane Delta is in our zone and these systems can be unpredictable so it must be monitored closely.

COVID-19 Protocols and Preparedness Tips before a Cyclone Arrival. Out of an abundance of caution, despite the current track, the public is advised to be prepared to take swift actions that will save life. Be prepared, just in case, to quickly put your Hurricane plan in place. Be reminded we are, historically, in the worst month of the Hurricane Season.

The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:

- Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140;
- Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or Mr. Leiva at 614-7177
- Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614-4735;
- San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865;
- Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Pollard at 6143244;
- Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or Mr. Eiley at 624 2365
- Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 6148604 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891;
- Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence), Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632
- Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for
- Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393

NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert and be prepared to quickly take actions that will save life. It is a must that all COVID 19 protocols are adhered to whether the country is under tropical cyclone threat or not. Adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.

COVID 19 SHELTER PROTOCOLS:

All persons in high-risk coastal areas are reminded IF the need arises for you to evacuate and you are (1) not COVID positive, (2) not in quarantine, (3) not awaiting a test result or (4) being contact traced, and (5) not showing symptoms, move early! You must wear a mask. Know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Note, people showing symptoms will be contained in a separate section of the shelter building. Hand washing /sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis. Garbage must be properly disposed of. Proper cleaning and disinfection must be done on a regular basis. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and cough /sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MoH) will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers/ Volunteers) MUST use PPE.

PREPAREDNESS TIPS BEFORE A CYCLONE ARRIVAL:

(1) Avoid being near the coast if your home is not safe if you live on the cayes and along the coast be familiar with the evacuation routes. Know which shelter you will need to go to.

(2) Protect windows with plywood or shutters,

(3) Review your family emergency plan, consider all COVID 19 measures,

(4) If you can afford to purchase non-perishable foods and water.

(5) Keep an extra supply of medication. If a member of your household is bed-ridden, seek medical advice. Notify authorities ahead of time if you have persons in your neighbourhood require special assistance to evacuate due to a medical condition.

(6) Secure your important documents and identification. Save the emergency contact numbers for NEMO, the police, fire, and medical facility in your cell phone.

(7) Pets are not allowed in shelters, make plans for your pets, continue to trim trees, clear drains, and secure outdoor items. Farmers make plans to move your animals to higher ground and stockpile feed when required.

To read this advisory and more, visit: http://site.nemo.org.bz/

Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545340
10/06/20 04:11 AM
10/06/20 04:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
...DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to -90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge. On the last pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of 80-85 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt.

The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC intensity forecast reflects this likelihood. However, an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made to the intensity forecast near landfall.

Delta is moving much faster this morning to the west-northwest, with the latest estimates at about 13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge across Florida should steer the hurricane to the west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Likely because of the deterioration of Gamma, model guidance is showing less poleward motion before Yucatan, and the official track is shifted to the west for the first day or so. Over the Gulf of Mexico, Delta should slow down and turn northward ahead of a trough moving eastward across Texas in a few days. Model guidance has again shifted westward, like the last cycle, and the official forecast is trended in that direction. However, it remains slightly east of the model consensus, due to a notable westward bias in some of the guidance during this hurricane season.

Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

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For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545362
10/06/20 09:09 AM
10/06/20 09:09 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
...REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Satellite imagery and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data show that Delta is a very symmetric and compact hurricane. The aircraft reported a tiny 5-nmi-wide eye, which has also been seen in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands, and there is a hint of a pinhole eye in infrared satellite data. The central pressure has continued to fall, with the lastest center dropwindsonde data supporting a pressure of 955 mb. The plane has reported a peak flight-level winds of 109 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 102 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt, making Delta the third major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Location: 18.2 N 82.6 W Movement: WNW at 14 mph
Wind: 115mph Pressure: 955 mb

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest motion is forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

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Crown Weather:

Delta continues to rapidly strengthen & is on the cusp of being a Category 3 major hurricane. Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the hurricane have found a central barometric pressure of 960 millibars and maximum winds of 110 mph. Delta has strengthened from a 40 mph tropical storm to a 110 mph hurricane in just the time span of 24 hours. This is most strengthening in a 24 hour period for an October Atlantic storm since Wilma of 2005.

Delta has a tiny eye that is about 6 miles wide based on reports from reconnaissance aircraft. Satellite imagery indicates that a large feeder band is beginning to wrap into the hurricane and unfortunately I think weíre going to be looking at a feedback loop with this hurricane. This means that the feeder band will intensify the more Delta decreases in barometric pressure. This means that very rapid strengthening is likely to continue today bringing the hurricane to Category 4 strength by tonight. I do have very serious concerns that Delta may try to make a run for Category 5 strength before it reaches the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and Wednesday morning.

For Those Of You In The Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Including Cancun & Cozumel: You need to prepare immediately for a major Category 4 hurricane impact tonight. Wind gusts of 120 to 150 mph are likely with this hurricane, especially from midnight tonight into Wednesday morning. This will be the most intense hurricane impact for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula since Wilma (2005) and Gilbert (1988).

Delta is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night into Thursday where it will likely maintain its Category 3 to Category 4 major hurricane status. It looks likely that Delta will gradually turn to the north and then the northeast as it heads from the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday to the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The reason for the turn to the north and northeast is due to a trough of low pressure that will be pushing eastward across the southern Plains States. The track model guidance consensus seems to be honing in on a landfall on the area around Morgan City, Louisiana on Friday night. I do think that the European model and especially the European ensemble model guidance are too far west with their forecast track of Delta which brings the hurricane into southwestern Louisiana. The European model has had a bias all season of forecasting storms to track too far west than what they actually tracked.

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Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545363
10/06/20 10:19 AM
10/06/20 10:19 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Hurricane Delta strengthens to Category 4 storm

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

====================

Crown Weather:

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicates that Delta continues to rapidly strengthen and is now a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 954 millibars.

Additional rapid strengthening is very likely this afternoon and tonight and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that Delta could be near or at Category 5 strength when it impacts the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later tonight and Wednesday morning. This is an extremely serious situation for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, especially around Cancun. Please prepare now for a major hurricane impact if you are on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

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Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545365
10/06/20 10:54 AM
10/06/20 10:54 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
[Linked Image]

Update on Category 4 Hurricane Delta

The National Meteorological Service continues to monitor Hurricane Delta which became a major hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at 9 this morning.

At that time the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.2N, longitude 82.6W or about 320 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Delta was moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and minimum central pressure 955mb. Delta is forecast to continue moving in a west-northwestward to northwestward direction during the next couple of days. On this track the system should make landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just south of Cancun early on Wednesday morning as a major hurricane. The forecast has been relatively consistent and most of the models agree on this track.

The impacts from Delta on Belize are still expected to be minimal as the system tracks north of the country. A slight increase in rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected over the northern districts later today and tonight. Winds are expected to be relatively strong and gusty and the National Meteorological Service of Belize will upgrade the current small craft caution to a warning at midday today. A small warning means that operators of small crafts should remain in safe harbour until after the warning has been lifted. Although rainfall is not expected to be very heavy, there is the chance that moderate rainfall amounts could result in localized flooding in the north over areas that are prone to flooding.

The National Meteorological Service will continue to monitor Delta as it tracks across the northwest Caribbean Sea and keep NEMO and the general public informed.

Regards,
--
Ronald Gordon MSc
Meteorologist
National Meteorological Service

Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545370
10/06/20 12:03 PM
10/06/20 12:03 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
NEMO ADVISORY # 3 CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DELTA
TUESDAY, 06 OCTOBER, 2020 as at 10:30 AM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby informs the general public that Hurricane Delta is now a major hurricane. The center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.2N, longitude 82.6W or about 320 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Delta was moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and minimum central pressure 955mb. Delta is forecast to continue moving in a west-north-westward to north-westward direction during the next couple of days. On this track the system should make landfall on the north-eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just south of Cancun early on Wednesday morning as a major hurricane. The forecast has been relatively consistent and most of the models agree on this track.

The impacts from Delta on Belize are still expected to be minimal as the system tracks north of the country. A slight increase in rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected over the northern districts later today and tonight. Winds are expected to be relatively strong and gusty and the National Meteorological Service of Belize will upgrade the current small craft caution to a warning at midday today. A small craft warning means that operators of small crafts should remain in safe harbour until after the warning has been lifted. Although rainfall is not expected to be very heavy, there is the chance that moderate rainfall amounts could result in localized flooding in the north over areas that are prone to flooding.

This major Hurricane is still in our zone of concern and due to its unpredictable nature we must remain alert. This advisory is issued as a precaution due to the proximity and direction of movement of Hurricane Delta. The public is advised to continue closely monitor Hurricane Delta even though the models are saying it is not assessed as being a direct threat to Belize, out of an abundance of caution, despite the current track, the public is advised to be prepared to take swift actions that will save life.

All must be prepared, just in case, to quickly put your Hurricane plan in place. Be reminded we are, historically, in the worst month of the Hurricane Season. NEMO City and District Emergency Committees will convene their second emergency meeting this afternoon. Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) countrywide will be on a 24 hours watch to closely monitor Hurricane Delta and to plan for the worse as we continue to hope for the best. We must maintain our guard and our vigilance.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545375
10/06/20 02:36 PM
10/06/20 02:36 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
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Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather 4 pm EDT/3 pm CDT Update On Major Hurricane Delta

Over the last few hours, Delta has maintained its Category 4 intensity and hasnít yet undergone another round of strengthening. With that said, I think that it is likely that we should probably see another round of strengthening before Delta moves across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 4 and very possibly a Category 5 hurricane on Wednesday morning.

This continues to be an extremely serious situation for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, especially around Cancun. Please prepare now for a major hurricane impact if you are on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

One change to the track forecast for Delta is that the track model guidance continues to shift slightly to the west in its forecast of Delta. A majority of the guidance now points to Delta making landfall in extreme eastern Cameron Parish and southern Vermilion Parish in Louisiana.

Based on what Iím seeing this afternoon, I think that the eye of Hurricane Delta will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast between the Cameron Parish and Vermilion Parish line and Houma late Friday night or Saturday morning.

As for intensity, I think that Delta will probably move across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico as at least a Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday night and Thursday. Once Delta moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the Gulf Coast, it will encounter increasing wind shear, cooler ocean water temperatures and some dry continental air. This likely means that Delta will probably weaken some on Friday, however, the rate of weakening may be slowed by itís increasing forward speed and its interaction with the trough of low pressure to the west. This trough interaction may lead to Delta moving in the same direction as the upper level wind shear leading to a low wind shear environment. This could significantly slow down the amount of weakening over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

As of right now, Iím thinking that Delta will make landfall as anywhere from a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane to a 125 mph Category 3 hurricane.

To Sum It Up Ė I think that Delta will make landfall on the Louisiana coast between the Cameron and Vermilion Parish line and Houma late Friday night and Saturday morning as anywhere from an 110 mph to an 125 mph hurricane.

Forecast Impacts:
Storm Surge: A 6 to 10 foot storm surge is expected across the northern and eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel, tonight into Wednesday.

Looking ahead, I have very serious concerns that AT LEAST a 10 to 15 foot storm surge will impact the Louisiana coast from areas around Vermilion Bay and points east on Friday night into Saturday. This includes Intracoastal City, New Iberia, Morgan City and Grand Isle. A 10 to 15 foot storm surge is also quite possible along the entire Mississippi coast on Friday night into Saturday.

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Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545376
10/06/20 05:09 PM
10/06/20 05:09 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS...

A small craft warning continues in effect for Belize as strong wind gusts and rough seas are expected due to Category 4 Hurricane Delta, which is near Belizean waters and making its way to Mexico's south-eastern State of Quintana Roo. Operators of small crafts in Belize are advised to keep them in safe harbor. In addition, there is a flood watch in effect for northern Belize.

Although this major hurricane will have minimal effects in the country, Belizeans are advised to continue monitoring Hurricane Delta.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt. The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the hurricane is scheduled for this evening.

There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land, weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening, and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week.

Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough. This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.1 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

Location:18.9N 84.1W
Movement:WNW
Wind:145 mph
Pressure: 956 mb

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Re: Hurricane Delta [Re: Marty] #545377
10/07/20 04:25 AM
10/07/20 04:25 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,862
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
...WEATHER QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING SOON...

Location:20.6N 86.4W
Movement:NW
Wind:115 mph
Pressure: 972 mb

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta, with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest of the center overnight. However, this structure has not resulted in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened since earlier today. The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt, with SFMR values near 90 kt. Early in the mission, the flight director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed. Recent Cuban radar data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt.

Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear. The regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on the stronger regional hurricane models. I should also note that all of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable area of hazardous conditions to the coast.

Fixes from the aircraft and Cuban radar data indicate the storm is moving faster to the northwest or 305/15 kt. Delta should make landfall during the next few hours between Cozumel and Cancun, and move quickly across northeastern Yucatan before emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. The hurricane is then expected to move to the northwest or west-northwest around the southwestern and western portion of the subtropical ridge for about the next 36 hours. Thereafter, Delta will likely turn northward by early Friday between the ridge and a mid-level trough over Texas. While there is broad agreement on the synoptic pattern, subtle differences in the subtropical ridge and the depth of the cyclone are causing some challenges. The ECMWF and its ensembles, for instance, are showing a stronger ridge and a weaker storm, which results in a slower track toward southwestern Louisiana. The GFS and UKMET, on the other hand, are showing a deeper cyclone, which would feel stronger upper-level winds, and move Delta faster to the coast. Given the expectation of a powerful cyclone at landfall, the NHC forecast is shaded toward the latter two models, which results in a slightly faster and westward-shifted forecast from before, not too different from the model consensus.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

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