The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Delta, centered inland over central Louisiana.
The rest of the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet, and additional tropical development is not expected through the rest of this week and through Saturday. Long-range computer forecasts are suggesting some potential for tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles late in the weekend or early next week.
A westward moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development of this system could be possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave continues moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Crown Weather:
No Tropical Development Is Expected For The Next Several Days; Possible Tropical Development Between The Central Caribbean & The Bahamas By Late Next Week (Around October 16)The tropical disturbance that is now about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa should reach the region from Jamaica to the Bahamas by later next week (October 15-16). At the same time this is happening, a trough of low pressure will push across the eastern United States leading to cooler than average temperatures and convergence & energy to increase to the south of this trough near the Bahamas and the Caribbean. This, I think, will give the spark that leads to tropical development somewhere between the central Caribbean and the Bahamas next weekend (October 17-18).
As for possible tracks, it is way too early to really tell, especially since this is still a 10 plus day forecast. There are many possible ways this development could go, ranging from a northeast track across Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas as it's picked up by the eastern trough to a westward track into the northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico because that eastern trough misses it & it is guided by a ridge of high pressure westward.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here