Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave (INVEST 93L) located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands have shown signs of organization during the past few hours. Some slight additional development is possible during the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally westward near 15 mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
There is a tropical wave with a weak imbedded area of low pressure a few hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. This feature is within an area of strong wind shear that should inhibit development during the next few days as it tracks to the west-northwest.
The rest of the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet, and additional tropical development is not expected over the next three to five days.Crown Weather:
The chances for tropical development probably in the central or southwestern Caribbean are increasing. This likelihood of development looks to occur beginning next weekend (October 17-18) with this system being an issue for much of the week of October 19.
The setup for this development will be a large high pressure system that will set up over the eastern United States, which in turn will lead to lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean by late week and next weekend (October 16-18). In addition, a tropical disturbance (Invest 93-L) now located about 1000 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles will reach the Caribbean in a few days and this, I think, will give the spark for development.
Bottom line is that I think that it is extremely possible, if not likely, that we will see the development of Tropical Storm Epsilon between October 19 and October 21 in either the central Caribbean near Jamaica or in the southwestern Caribbean.
Most likely track is either this system will be pushed westward towards Central America or pulled northeastward which would impact Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas. For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here