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Belize Weather Forecast: October 12, 2020 #545494
10/12/20 06:10 AM
10/12/20 06:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 12, 2020

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Clear skies, except in the south by Punta Gorda. Generally fair weather prevails.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy at times tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop around the country today, but will increase over the southern districts tonight.
Winds: E-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for some showers and a few thunderstorms around the country.
Sargassum Forecast from October 6, 2020 to October 14, 2020: The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches in the next few days remain low with minimal impacts expected from any mats that do make it ashore. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves across the basin. A surface trough is noted over the Lesser Antilles extending from 16N60W to 10N63W. A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough. The combination of the Colombian 1007 mb low and the Pacific Monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection In the southwest Caribbean south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and Nicaragua. Drier conditions noted in the western Caribbean. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds tonight. Moderate to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. Strong tropical wave, currently near 46W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat. Showers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little through the forecast period.

  High Low
Coastal 32° C
89° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 34° C
94° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
20° C
68° F
High: 5:36 AM Low: 1:01 PM
High: 7:16 PM Low: 12:34 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:45 AM Moonset: 2:43 PM
Sunset: 5:32 PM Moonrise: 2:27 AM (Tue)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 12, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545495
10/12/20 06:11 AM
10/12/20 06:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave (INVEST 93L) located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands have shown signs of organization during the past few hours. Some slight additional development is possible during the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally westward near 15 mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

There is a tropical wave with a weak imbedded area of low pressure a few hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. This feature is within an area of strong wind shear that should inhibit development during the next few days as it tracks to the west-northwest.

The rest of the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet, and additional tropical development is not expected over the next three to five days.

Crown Weather:
The chances for tropical development probably in the central or southwestern Caribbean are increasing. This likelihood of development looks to occur beginning next weekend (October 17-18) with this system being an issue for much of the week of October 19.

The setup for this development will be a large high pressure system that will set up over the eastern United States, which in turn will lead to lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean by late week and next weekend (October 16-18). In addition, a tropical disturbance (Invest 93-L) now located about 1000 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles will reach the Caribbean in a few days and this, I think, will give the spark for development.

Bottom line is that I think that it is extremely possible, if not likely, that we will see the development of Tropical Storm Epsilon between October 19 and October 21 in either the central Caribbean near Jamaica or in the southwestern Caribbean.

Most likely track is either this system will be pushed westward towards Central America or pulled northeastward which would impact Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 12, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545496
10/12/20 06:44 AM
10/12/20 06:44 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,497
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 11 mph, partly cloudy sky, and expected high temperature of 89 f.


White Sands Dive Shop
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 12, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545497
10/12/20 09:14 AM
10/12/20 09:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Not much happening weather-wise, very little Caribbean winds around, some higher level cloud coming from the east.

Looks as if today will have a fair bit of sunshine, with white clouds developing, a chance of swellup rain later today.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 26C 78F Yesterday max. 33C 91F Yesterday Rain 0.2 mm ( 0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 12, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545499
10/12/20 12:32 PM
10/12/20 12:32 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 80,387
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly clear skies. Mainly fair weather prevails but conditions are expected to become moist and unstable during the next 24 to 48 hours.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny this afternoon with isolated showers or thunderstorms. Cloudy at times tonight and tomorrow morning with some showers and a few thunderstorms mainly over the south at first, then increasing over most areas by tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the country but especially northern and inland areas Tuesday afternoon then mainly southern and coastal areas Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

[Linked Image]

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