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Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 #545534
10/14/20 06:15 AM
10/14/20 06:15 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning, especially in the south. A moist northeasterly airflow prevails over the area.
Advisories: *A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy at times with some showers and periods of rain affecting most places, along with a few thunderstorms mostly over the south, coast and offshore this morning and inland this afternoon. Activity will gradually decrease with a few showers and thunderstorms lingering over some coastal areas tonight.
Winds: N-NE, 00-10 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: Some cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly along the coast Thursday morning and over the southern districts Thursday night; while being isolated elsewhere.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020: Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

An upper level trough extends from 17N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N to 20N between 58W and 70W, and from 17N northward between 70W and 80W, including in the coastal waters of Hispaniola and Cuba.

A tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from Cuba southward, with widely scattered moderate showers within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A surface trough curves from the Mona Passage toward the Paraguana Peninsula of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 690 nm on either side of the surface trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in Colombia, across Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward and 73W westward, in the the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An area of low pressure, along a tropical wave that is to the east of Barbados, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the Lesser Antilles today. The low pressure center will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Wind speeds will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea on Thursday evening, as high pressure builds north of the area.

  High Low
Coastal 29° C
84° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
19° C
67° F
High: 7:47 AM Low: 2:24 PM
High: 8:23 PM Low: 2:30 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:45 AM Moonset: 4:15 PM
Sunset: 5:31 PM Moonrise: 4:30 AM (Thu)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545535
10/14/20 06:16 AM
10/14/20 06:16 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has a weak low pressure area associated with it. This feature, designated 93L, is moving through a region featuring strong westerly wind shear. This shear will remain strong enough to inhibit tropical development during the next few days as this tropical wave and area of low pressure tracks to the west-northwest. Regardless of development, 93L will bring the Lesser Antilles gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall today into Thursday. 93L is expected to track westward through the eastern Caribbean during the latter part of the week then into the central Caribbean by this coming weekend.

Another strong tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa and is moving west at about 10-15 knots. This tropical wave will bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall over the Cabo Verde Islands today into Thursday and head west and away from those islands by Thursday night. Some computer forecasts show some support for tropical development if low pressure can become established along the wave axis late this week or during the upcoming weekend.

The rest of the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet, and additional tropical development is not expected through the rest of this week and through the upcoming weekend.

Some long-range computer models suggest an area to watch for tropical development may be the south central or western parts of the Caribbean Sea later next week. Some of the computer guidance shows an area of low pressure forming south or southwest of Jamaica around the middle of next week before slowly becoming stronger and better organized, perhaps into a tropical depression or storm.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545536
10/14/20 07:45 AM
10/14/20 07:45 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,181
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have heavy rainfall and a wind from the North at 10 mph. Today's expected high temperature is 84 f.


White Sands Dive Shop
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545537
10/14/20 09:02 AM
10/14/20 09:02 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Both the Caribbean winds and the high level winds are coming down from the NE causing a lot of clashing areas. Brought some rain to parts of Belize over night, possibly some northern coastal areas presently, and probably patches of rain at any time today.

Looks as if it will be mainly cloudy today, there could be patches of sun occasionally, but more likely areas of rain, some heavy at times.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 25C 77F Yesterday max. 33C 91F Yesterday Rain 14 mm ( 0.7")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545538
10/14/20 11:39 AM
10/14/20 11:39 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
The earlier high level clashing stopped. But there is a wave of cloud moving down from the north.
These clouds will probably develop more as they come down and then produce rain in many places. Probably already causing patches of rain up north.

[Linked Image]

The chances of having a Tropical Cyclone within the Caribbean continue to increase, as is seen by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the 20th of this month.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545539
10/14/20 12:13 PM
10/14/20 12:13 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
The rain areas are moving down.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Partly cloudy. A moist northeasterly airflow continues to dominate our weather.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times along with a few showers and thunderstorms over most areas, especially inland this afternoon and then mostly over southern and coastal areas tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger over offshore areas tomorrow morning.

Outlook: For Thursday afternoon through to midday on Friday is for generally fair weather to prevail. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, with the chance of a few more occurring over inland areas on Thursday afternoon.

A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of localized flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill

A little hope in the sky this morning on Ambergris Caye. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 14, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545543
10/14/20 04:25 PM
10/14/20 04:25 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
A lot of rain around.


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