A weak area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, well to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to continue to inhibit development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles, through a region featuring strong westerly wind shear. This shear will remain strong enough to inhibit tropical development during the next few days as this tropical wave tracks to the west-northwest. Although not expected to develop, this tropical wave will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward and northern Windward islands today. This active weather will also impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into Friday. This tropical wave is expected to track westward from the eastern Caribbean on Friday into the central Caribbean this coming weekend.
Another strong tropical wave that brought locally heavy rain and gusty wind to the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday into early this morning will track to the west and into the open waters of the eastern Atlantic. Due to strong westerly shear this tropical wave is unlikely to become any better organized.
Several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda, an area of low pressure is expected to develop into the day on Friday. There is some chance this low pressure area will attempt to become a tropical or subtropical depression over the weekend or early next week as it meanders in the central Atlantic. However, similar to the other features in the Atlantic, unfavorable wind shear is expected to inhibit significant strengthening.
Some long-range computer models suggest an area to watch for tropical development will be the south-central or western parts of the Caribbean Sea later next week. Some of the computer guidance shows an area of low pressure forming south or southwest of Jamaica around the middle of next week before slowly becoming stronger and better organized, perhaps into a tropical depression or storm.