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Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2020 #545552
10/15/20 06:07 AM
10/15/20 06:07 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area.
Advisories: *A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.*
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur mainly over inland areas this afternoon. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: E-NE, 5-10 kts
Sea State: Slight-Light Chop
Waves: 1-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to occur mostly over central and southern areas during the day, and then a few more over the southern districts in the night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020: Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A broad east-west upper level trough extends across the western Caribbean Sea from Cuba and Hispaniola to Central America. Scattered moderate convection is occuring from 12N to 17N between 73W and 89W. A tropical wave along 62W may produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 73W in Colombia across Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is occuring from 12N to 17N between 73W and 89W.

Widespread showers associated with the tropical wave 62W will move into the NE Caribbean today and reach the Mona Passage Fri. Winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean tonight as high pressure builds north of the area.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
67° F
TIDES:
High: 8:43 AM Low: 3:01 PM
High: 8:56 PM Low: 3:22 AM (Fri)
Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonset: 4:59 PM
Sunset: 5:30 PM Moonrise: 5:32 AM (Fri)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545553
10/15/20 06:07 AM
10/15/20 06:07 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
A weak area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, well to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to continue to inhibit development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles, through a region featuring strong westerly wind shear. This shear will remain strong enough to inhibit tropical development during the next few days as this tropical wave tracks to the west-northwest. Although not expected to develop, this tropical wave will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward and northern Windward islands today. This active weather will also impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into Friday. This tropical wave is expected to track westward from the eastern Caribbean on Friday into the central Caribbean this coming weekend.

Another strong tropical wave that brought locally heavy rain and gusty wind to the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday into early this morning will track to the west and into the open waters of the eastern Atlantic. Due to strong westerly shear this tropical wave is unlikely to become any better organized.

Several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda, an area of low pressure is expected to develop into the day on Friday. There is some chance this low pressure area will attempt to become a tropical or subtropical depression over the weekend or early next week as it meanders in the central Atlantic. However, similar to the other features in the Atlantic, unfavorable wind shear is expected to inhibit significant strengthening.

Some long-range computer models suggest an area to watch for tropical development will be the south-central or western parts of the Caribbean Sea later next week. Some of the computer guidance shows an area of low pressure forming south or southwest of Jamaica around the middle of next week before slowly becoming stronger and better organized, perhaps into a tropical depression or storm.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545554
10/15/20 07:12 AM
10/15/20 07:12 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,181
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a breeze from the East at 7 mph and a calm sea around our barrier reef. The expected high temperature for the day is 88 f.

oct15th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545555
10/15/20 07:46 AM
10/15/20 07:46 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There does not appear to be much air movement around us at any level. But I am getting the feeling that we have been seeing the sort of the last of the normal summer ITCZ activity as it generally moves further south, and I think there may be a bit of a large bubble of cooler air coming down from the north. We will probably not see much change to our weather for several days, but it does look as if the clashing rain clouds are presently off shore.

Today, again, looks like a mixture of weather, fair amount of sun in the north, cloud in the south, but a reduced chance of rain today.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24°C 76°F Yesterday max. 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 14.5 mm ( 0.7")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545564
10/15/20 12:51 PM
10/15/20 12:51 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Looks as if the easterly Caribbean winds are winning, but causing significant cloud build up, some of which could turn to rain in patches.

[Linked Image]

Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Relatively moist and unstable conditions linger over the area.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells this afternoon and tomorrow morning and cloudy skies at times tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over inland areas this afternoon, while activites will be isolated elsewhere.

Outlook: Between Friday afternoon and Saturday midday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect central and southern parts of the country.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Over the water hammocks at Hurricane‘s ceviche bar and grill. Photos by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


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