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Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020 #545604
10/17/20 06:06 AM
10/17/20 06:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning, more so in the south. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms over the south and along some coastal areas this morning and tonight, then mostly over inland and southern areas this afternoon.
Winds: N-NE, 0-10 kts
Sea State: Slight-Light Chop
Waves: 1-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Sunday morning and night is for cloudy spells with isolated showers and thunderstorms, except for a few more over coastal and offshore areas in the morning, then over inland areas in the afternoon.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020: Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A low pressure sytem located about 550 miles ESE of Bermuda continues to become better organised and has a medium chance of becoming a sub-tropical depression in the next few days. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A broad upper level trough extends northeastward from the tropical wave near 71W into the Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 31N56W.

The monsoon trough passes along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near and along the trough axis, south of 11N between 76W and 83W.

The tropical wave will continue to move across Hispaniola and the central Caribbean today, and reach eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Sun. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly in the western Caribbean Sea.


  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 31° C
88° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 25° C
77° F
19° C
67° F
TIDES:
High: 10:28 AM Low: 4:15 PM
High: 10:07 PM Low: 5:06 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM Moonset: 6:31 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545605
10/17/20 06:06 AM
10/17/20 06:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized in association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Although the circulation is still somewhat elongated, the center appears better defined than it was yesterday. Continued slow development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

There are two areas of concern, one of which has some potential to develop as early as this weekend whereas the other area of concern is for next week. The first area of note, a non-tropical area of low pressure some several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, is associated with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity is still relatively well removed from the center, but there is a moderate chance that some gradual development into a subtropical system could take place this weekend.

The second area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop next week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear is also forecast to be relatively low, so all the ingredients for tropical development should be present. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later next week. Should the shear be stronger than currently forecast, that may be enough to hinder any tropical development before the area of low pressure lifts northward later next week into the following weekend. Those with interest in the western Caribbean should pay close attention to this disturbance, particularly over Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545607
10/17/20 07:00 AM
10/17/20 07:00 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,181
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning the breeze is from the NE at 13 mph. The sea around our barrier reef is calm. today's expected high temperature is 86 f.

oct 17th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545608
10/17/20 09:01 AM
10/17/20 09:01 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There is another wave of rain clouds coming in, probably later this morning or around midday. But there is already a large ITCZ swellup over much of southern Belize now causing some heavy rain. So more to come later.

Looks like another cloudy day, with significant rain around, the south now, the rest later today..

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 22C 72F Yesterday max. 29C 83F Yesterday Rain 35.9 mm ( 1.4")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545609
10/17/20 12:21 PM
10/17/20 12:21 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy. A moist and unstable northeasterly airflow continues to support wet weather conditions across the country.

24hr Forecast: Mostly cloudy skies with some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms over most areas this afternoon and then mainly over coastal and offshore areas tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect mainly inland areas on Sunday afternoon and then mainly coastal and offshore areas on Sunday night and Monday morning.

A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Ominous skies in San Pedro. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

A beautiful day just to get soaked in our Corozal Bay! Photo by the Corozal Daily

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545610
10/17/20 02:35 PM
10/17/20 02:35 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,127
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
More rain around...

4CDF7B13-2B84-4F38-A471-5ED329654B79.png

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