Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized in association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Although the circulation is still somewhat elongated, the center appears better defined than it was yesterday. Continued slow development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
There are two areas of concern, one of which has some potential to develop as early as this weekend whereas the other area of concern is for next week. The first area of note, a non-tropical area of low pressure some several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, is associated with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity is still relatively well removed from the center, but there is a moderate chance that some gradual development into a subtropical system could take place this weekend.
The second area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop next week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear is also forecast to be relatively low, so all the ingredients for tropical development should be present. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later next week. Should the shear be stronger than currently forecast, that may be enough to hinder any tropical development before the area of low pressure lifts northward later next week into the following weekend. Those with interest in the western Caribbean should pay close attention to this disturbance, particularly over Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here