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Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020 #545616
10/18/20 06:22 AM
10/18/20 06:22 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,067
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and slightly unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy skies at times with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly offshore this morning and then spreading to the mainland later this evening and early tonight.
Winds: NW-N, 5-15 kts, Gusty
Sea State: Light Chop-Rough
Waves: 3-7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: A few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue mainly over coastal and offshore areas on Monday morning, spreading inland on Monday afternoon and then gradually decrease on Monday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020: Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles ESE of Bermuda continues to show signs of organization and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while this system meanders well south of Bermuda. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Caribbean. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes along the coasts of northern Colombia westward to Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 13N to include S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh winds pulsing overnight south of 13N and within 200 nm south of Cuba.

The tropical wave across the W Caribbean will continue moving west enhancing winds and convection over the area. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
85° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 25° C
77° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
High: 11:20 AM Low: 4:52 PM
High: 10:46 PM Low: 6:00 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonrise: 7:39 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM Moonset: 7:21 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545617
10/18/20 06:23 AM
10/18/20 06:23 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,067
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The relative quiet that has been enjoyed across the Atlantic basin over the past week is likely to end over the next day or so as a non-tropical low center to the east-southeast of Bermuda takes on some tropical characteristics. It seems likely that development into a subtropical depression or subtropical storm will occur as wind shear has relaxed near the center of circulation and waters are warm enough to support development. The next name that would be given to a tropical or subtropical storm is Epsilon.

Another area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the upcoming week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear is also forecast to be relatively low, so all the ingredients for tropical development should be present. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later next week.

Should the shear be stronger than currently forecast, that may be enough to hinder any tropical development before the area of low pressure lifts northward later next week into the following weekend. Those with interests in the western Caribbean should pay close attention to this disturbance, particularly over Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545618
10/18/20 06:59 AM
10/18/20 06:59 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,178
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a flat calm sea around our barrier reef from an 8 mph Northern breeze. Today's expected high temperature is 85 f.

oct18.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545619
10/18/20 08:56 AM
10/18/20 08:56 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,067
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There are still a lot of rain clouds around, but presently out in the Caribbean. The Caribbean winds are from the ENE. the high level from the SW and causing clashing out at sea, but this may we move inland later today or this evening.

Looks as if today may well be fairly sunny, but with a fair bit of cloud around, there could be the odd shower in a few places, and more significant rain late this afternoon or evening.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24C 76F Yesterday max. 29C 84F Yesterday Rain 9.6 mm ( 0.4")

EA42C275-9501-4CDA-9815-D6D123FCAC57.png80BE6FEB-2774-4206-9862-FC6E02D319D6.png
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545621
10/18/20 12:21 PM
10/18/20 12:21 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,067
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly cloudy. A gradual decrease in moisture and instability is expected during the next 24 to 48 hrs.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with isolated showers and thunderstorms except for a few more inland this afternoon then along the coast tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly inland Monday afternoon then over southern districts Monday night becoming generally isolated Tuesday morning.

A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Today on Caye Caulker... Photo by Wendy Auxillou

[Linked Image]

Pretty red hot day! Photos by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 18, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545622
10/18/20 04:25 PM
10/18/20 04:25 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 74,067
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Here comes the rain I was mentioning.

3C9019F8-A061-4176-AEF1-DE3E10024B99.png

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