Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
The relative quiet that has been enjoyed across the Atlantic basin over the past week is likely to end over the next day or so as a non-tropical low center to the east-southeast of Bermuda takes on some tropical characteristics. It seems likely that development into a subtropical depression or subtropical storm will occur as wind shear has relaxed near the center of circulation and waters are warm enough to support development. The next name that would be given to a tropical or subtropical storm is Epsilon.
Another area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the upcoming week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear is also forecast to be relatively low, so all the ingredients for tropical development should be present. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later next week.
Should the shear be stronger than currently forecast, that may be enough to hinder any tropical development before the area of low pressure lifts northward later next week into the following weekend. Those with interests in the western Caribbean should pay close attention to this disturbance, particularly over Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here