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Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 #545627
10/19/20 05:59 AM
10/19/20 05:59 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. A gradual decrease in moisture is expected over the area.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly offshore this morning and inland this afternoon and evening, then mainly south tonight. Elsewhere showers will be isolated.
Winds: N-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for generally fair weather with isolated showers or thunderstorms mostly over the south.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020: Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda has a high chance of becoming a subtropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it meanders well southeast of Bermuda. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There are two tropical waves in the Caribbean. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through Panama to a 1006 mb low near 11N77W. With this, scattered moderate convection prevails south of 12N between 76W-83W. To the northwest scattered moderate convection prevails over Cuba and Jamaica mainly north of 17N between 75W-80W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia and Venezuela, while light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Seas average 3-6 ft with up to 7 ft north of Colombia.

A tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean will reach the Yucatan Peninsula late today enhancing winds and convection over the region. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly northwestward or north- northwestward over the area.


  High Low
Coastal 29° C
85° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 25° C
77° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
Low: 6:00 AM High: 12:14 PM
Low: 5:31 PM High: 11:29 PM
Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonrise: 8:43 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM Moonset: 8:14 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545628
10/19/20 05:59 AM
10/19/20 05:59 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization in association with a large non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, a subtropical or tropical depression could still develop later today or on Tuesday. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. See NOAA High Seas Forecast products for more details on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda continues to be monitored for development as it slowly moves southward. This disturbance is located along the western end of a front that stretches across the central and northeastern Atlantic. It is highly likely that this system will acquire enough tropical characteristics in the next 24-48 hours such as to be declared a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The next name that would be given to a tropical or subtropical storm is Epsilon.

Another area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the upcoming week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear may be a limiting factor, however, and the ultimate development prospects are heavily skewed toward the magnitude and duration of the wind shear. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later this week or early this weekend.

Should the shear be strong, then development into an organized tropical system would be unlikely with a disorganized area of low pressure then expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, if the shear is weak, then there is some potential for a significant system to develop and pose a threat to the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas. All interests across these regions should monitor the situation closely this week.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545629
10/19/20 07:35 AM
10/19/20 07:35 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,285
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning, after a night of heavy rainfall, we have a flat calm sea around our barrier reef from a 10 mph Northern breeze. Today's expected high temperature is 85 f.

oct19.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545630
10/19/20 08:13 AM
10/19/20 08:13 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Much, Much Lower Chance For Tropical Development In The Central & Western Caribbean

Crown Weather:

It looks like the model guidance, especially the GFS model, led us on a big time wild goose chase with the potential for tropical development over the next week or so in the central and western Caribbean.

With that said, it still looks possible that we could see an increase in thunderstorm activity in the western half of the Caribbean by late this week. An area of thunderstorms is currently situated over the Bahamas today. It looks as if this convection will sink southwestward into the western Caribbean by about Wednesday or Thursday where we could see some sort of low pressure system form.

Even though the model guidance have all essentially dropped their forecasts of robust tropical development, I still am going to keep a very close eye on any low pressure system development in the western Caribbean later this week.

Interestingly, even though the GFS and European operational models do not forecast any sort of tropical development, the UKMET model seems to show some hints of tropical development over the northwestern Caribbean by Friday and Saturday. In addition, the GFS ensemble model does still hint that we could see a tropical system form near the Cayman Islands by this weekend. Meanwhile, there are crickets from the European ensemble model guidance as it forecasts very little in the way of potential Caribbean tropical development.

At This Point, My Thoughts Are That this is going to be more of a wait and see situation in regards to potential tropical development in the western Caribbean. At this point, I am very skeptical that we will see tropical development occur, but given the weather pattern of rising barometric pressures over the eastern United States and subsequent lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean, I do think that it is something that does need to be watched, just in case.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545631
10/19/20 08:58 AM
10/19/20 08:58 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The Caribbean winds are from further north this morning, and with a fair amount of cloud. The high level is, well it is not sure, but ranging from the SW to from the NW. there was some night rain, presently there does not appear to be much rain around, but that could change.

Looks as if today will be mainly cloudy, short periods of sunshine, but could also be periods of rain later today.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24C 75F Yesterday 31max. C 87F Yesterday Rain 8.8 mm ( 0.4")

CF5C8978-55E0-43A5-9EFB-7864EF857205.png
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545634
10/19/20 11:47 AM
10/19/20 11:47 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Looks as if rain is starting to develop in several areas. There appears to be cool air coming down from the north now as well.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545635
10/19/20 12:13 PM
10/19/20 12:13 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Generally fair conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with isolated showers or thunderstorms. A few more will affect the Toledo district tonight.

Outlook: Between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday midday is for only isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545640
10/20/20 04:28 AM
10/20/20 04:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 76,247
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Amazing sunset on Ambergris Caye Monday night! Photo by Gach Guerrero

[Linked Image]

Street view Sunset in San Pedro Town. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

Flood Report and Forecast from the National Hydrological Service for October 19, 2020

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, Douglas and downstream to the coast levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are normal and falling.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are below the spillways at Chalillo, Mollejon and Vaca facilities. At San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels are near normal and falling. On the BELIZE RIVER, levels at Banana Bank and Double Run are above normal and steady. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels are below the causeway and falling.

REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is above normal and falling. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and falling. The Swasey and Blades branch of the MONKEY RIVER are above normal and falling. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are above nominal and steady. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South is above normal and steady. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Clique Sarco are above normal rising steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are above normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas above nonnal levels are expected. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill levels and Caledonia above nominal levels are expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillways at Chalillo, Mollejon and Vaca facilities. At San Ignacio, nonral and steady levels are expected. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels are expected to become normal. On the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank and Double Run levels are expected to become normal over the next few days. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels are expected to remain below the causeway over the next few days.

REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibiu) are expected to continue to become normal over the next few days. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village normal and steady levels are expected. In watersheds on the Eastern Slopes of the Mayan Mountains levels are expected to become near normal. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is expected to become normal over the next few days. On the Swasey and Blades branch of the MONKEY RIVER levels are expected to remain at above normal levels and become steady. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are expected to fall to near nominal levels. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, normal and steady levels are expected. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Clique Sarco are expected to continue to decrease over the next few days.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER above nominal levels are expected.

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Wednesday October 21, 2020 at 12 pm.

Beautiful sunset Monday night, Photo by the Ambergris Today

[Linked Image]


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