General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS:
Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning, less so in the north. Generally fair weather prevails.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast:
Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, but slightly more will affect the Toledo district tonight.
Winds: NW, 5-15 kts Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook:
Wednesday and Wednesday night is for a similar trend to occur.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020:
Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 3:00am the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6N, longitude 54.7W, or about 765 miles SE of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph and the system was moving ENE at 3 mph.
Click for more...
Marine Conditions:
The Caribbean Sea
There are two tropical waves in the Caribbean. A 1007 mb surface low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N81W
with a trough extending NW from the low to 24N87W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean
between 70W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. Seas average between 3-5 ft, except 4-6
ft in the Yucatan Channel.
The tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America today. The broad
area of low pressure in the west-central Caribbean is forecast to
move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula over the next
day or two. Expect unsettled weather over the western Caribbean
and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
A trough of low pressure extends southeastward from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico across the northwestern Caribbean Sea to a broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is currently accompanied by disorganixed shower and thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so before moving slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through midweek. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Tropical Storm Epsilon is moving slowly northward at this time in the central Atlantic Ocean. This storm is located along the western end of a front that stretches across the central and northeastern Atlantic.
Another area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the upcoming week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear may be a limiting factor, however, and the ultimate development prospects are heavily skewed toward the magnitude and duration of the wind shear. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later this week or early this weekend.
Should the shear be strong, then development into an organized tropical system would be unlikely with a disorganized area of low pressure then expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, if the shear is weak, then there is some potential for a significant system to develop and pose a threat to the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas. All interests across these regions should monitor the situation closely this week.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 20, 2020
[Re: Marty]
#545651 10/20/2007:47 AM10/20/2007:47 AM
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a flat calm sea around our barrier reef from an 11 mph Northernwest breeze. Today's expected high temperature is 85 f.
We have a rotation near us, centered around about Cancun. Unlikely to actually develop, the Weather people do not even appear to have spotted it. There is widespread fog or low, Overcast cloud over much of the southern Yucatan and Belize this morning. Only small amounts of west high level clashing way out at sea. there is a light "Tiger" wind from the SE
A bit early yet to see what is going to happen, but I expect cloud and a bit of sunshine later, only a low chance of rain.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 24°C 75°F Yesterday 31max. °C 89°F Yesterday Rain 7.5 mm ( 0.3")
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 20, 2020
[Re: Marty]
#545653 10/20/2010:43 AM10/20/2010:43 AM
Regarding The Western Caribbean: I really don’t know what to think in regards to whether we see development or not in the Caribbean. Satellite imagery today indicates there are some convection occurring over the southwestern Caribbean that should be monitored, just in case, especially since wind shear values are favorable for development.
In addition, the overall pattern over the next week or so is going to be supportive of tropical development in the western Caribbean, especially once Epsilon moves away to the northeast by this weekend. With that said, it’s not a slam dunk and I’m pretty skeptical now that we will even see tropical development in the western Caribbean.
The model guidance have all almost dropped the forecast of tropical development. The UKMET, the 00Z GFS, the Canadian model and the European model all forecast no tropical development in the western Caribbean. On the other hand, the 06Z GFS model and the 06Z NAVGEM model now forecasts tropical development in the western Caribbean next week.
Here Are My Thoughts: Let’s not sleep on this as I think there is a chance that we will eventually see tropical development in the western Caribbean, it just may not occur until next week sometime. As I mentioned yesterday, this still looks to be much more of a wait and see situation in regards to potential tropical development in the western Caribbean.
At this point, I continue to be skeptical that we will see tropical development occur. With that said, given the favorable overall weather pattern of rising barometric pressures over the eastern United States and subsequent lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean, I do think that it is something that does need to be watched, just in case.
Since Epsilon is likely now to not significantly impact Bermuda, the next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook: click here.
Present Condition: Mostly clear. Generally fair weather will prevail over the area.
24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, except for a few more over some coastal areas and the southern districts tonight.
Outlook: For Wednesday afternoon through to midday Thursday is for similar weather conditions to prevail.
Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 20, 2020
[Re: Marty]
#545665 10/21/2004:02 AM10/21/2004:02 AM
The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.
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General Situation:
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