Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly clear skies this morning. Generally fair conditions prevail over the country.
Sunny with some cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: W, 5-10 kts Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
Friday-Friday night:- Mainly fair conditions with showers and thunderstorms being isolated at first, then activity will increase mainly along the coast during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 21, 2020 to October 28, 2020:
The chance of sargassum affecting local beaches in the coming days is low with minimal impacts from any mats that do make it ashore. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
A trough of low pressure over the Western Caribbean Sea is producing some disorganised showers and thunderstorms. This system has a low chance of some slow development in the next few days, while it moves north-eastward near western or central Cuba. At 6:00am the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 30.6N, longitude 61.3W, or about 385 miles ESE of Bermuda.
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The Caribbean Sea
A surface trough extends from 22N95W in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is along
20N at the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, into the
Caribbean Sea near 17N83W, and to 13N78W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters,
from 94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northern
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and to the Yucatan Channel.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in
clusters is within 430 nm to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea
surface trough from Haiti westward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is between 67W and 73W. Isolated moderate is
from 11N northward to the trough from 78W westward.
The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the waters from the monsoon
trough southward between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate to
strong in clusters is in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W
and 78W, and from 08N to 10N between the Colombia/Venezuela
border and 74W.
The surface trough in the western Caribbean Sea is producing
widespread rain showers and thunderstorms to the north of 15N in
the west-central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds and the sea
heights will increase to the east and southeast of the Windward
Islands on Saturday, from a tropical wave that will move across
the area during the upcoming weekend.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
Epsilon is a Major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and is centered about 310 miles southeast of Bermuda and is moving to the west-northwest at about 8 mph. Sustained winds are near 115 mph.
A trough of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms which primarily extend near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Development of this system is unlikely to occur during the next few days as it passes near western Cuba and moves over the Straits of Florida. By late this weekend or early next week, however, some slow development is possible while the system moves generally northeastward from near the northwestern Bahamas toward the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A broad but disorganized area of low pressure continues to swirl over the western Caribbean Sea. Strong wind shear will prevent this low from developing any further, and tropical development is no longer likely with this feature. However, as this feature drifts northward this weekend, locally heavy rain can fall over western Cuba and the Bahamas. Tropical development is not expected elsewhere in the basin through at least the weekend.
In the longer range, a cold front will reach the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean early next week. An area of low pressure may try to develop by midweek in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or far northwestern Caribbean Sea near the tail end of this front. This area will be monitored for possible tropical development next week.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2020
#545695 10/22/2006:48 AM10/22/2006:48 AM
We still have low level cloud rotating slowly around the Yucatan, bringing blanket cloud over most of Belize from the west. There is not much high level cloud, the only clashing is off shore. There is a lot of cloud in the Caribbean, that could get to us over the next few days, but not today.
Looks as if there will be a fair bit of cloud this morning, some sunshine getting through, looks as if probably no rain.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 26°C 78°F Yesterday 31max. °C 87°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 22, 2020
#545697 10/22/2010:17 AM10/22/2010:17 AM
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean to the west and southwest of Jamaica is being created by a trough of low pressure in the area. Satellite imagery today indicates that the thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized as compared to yesterday. In addition, this area of thunderstorm activity is in an area of favorable environmental conditions, including low wind shear, warm waters and high moisture levels. I do think that this is something that will need to be watched for signs of tropical development through this weekend and into early next week as it begins to head north-northeastward towards the Florida Straits and the Bahamas.
I think that we shouldn’t ignore the area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean as the environmental conditions are favorable for development. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it try to make a go at development once it reaches the area between western Cuba on Saturday and Grand Bahama and Great Abaco Islands on Sunday.
Beyond this, the background atmospheric state is expected to be favorable for development through the first half of November. This means that the guidance that is hinting at another chance for tropical development in the Caribbean during the first week of November may not be too far off. With that said, I am still very skeptical, given the bias the models have with showing erroneous tropical development in the Caribbean this time of year.