Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly clear skies this morning. Mainly fair weather will prevail today then an increase in moisture is expected tonight.
Mostly sunny today with isolated showers or thunderstorms then cloudy at times tonight with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the south and coast.
Winds: W-NW, 5-10 kts Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over most areas Saturday, increasing Saturday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 21, 2020 to October 28, 2020:
The chance of sargassum affecting local beaches in the coming days is low with minimal impacts from any mats that do make it ashore. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
A trough of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has a low chance of some slow development in the next few days, while it moves northeastward near western or central Cuba. At 3:00am the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 33.1N, longitude 61.6W, or about 195 miles ENE of Bermuda.
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The Caribbean Sea
There is a
tropical wave moving west across the Lesser Antilles this morning.
A surface trough extends from the Yucatan peninsula near 20N88W to
15N82W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W. A 1011 mb low
pressure center has formed along this trough, south of the Cayman
Islands, near 18N82W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 74W and 83W. This
activity is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of the
Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across Panama through
the extreme SW Carribbean, and to the north coast of Colombia
near 11N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough from 80W eastward.
The aforementioned low pressure in the NW Caribbean may strengthen
through Sat when it should reach northward into central or
western Cuba, and there is a low chance of tropical formation
during this time. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty
winds could impact the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters
through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the
Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on Sat through Tue, ahead
of a tropical wave near 48W this morning, that will approach the
Lesser Antilles by the start of next week.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic about 200 miles east of Bermuda.
Epsilon remains a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale early Friday morning. Epsilon is centered around 200 miles to the east of Bermuda and continues to track off to the north around 10 mph. Although Epsilon continues to encounter cooler ocean waters and an increase in wind shear, the storm should retain its current wind intensity through Saturday. As Epsilon tracks east of Bermuda Friday, the outermost rain bands will bring a bit of rain and occasional wind gusts to the islands. By Friday night, Epsilon should be accelerating to the northeast away from Bermuda and any remaining rain and wind gusts will come to an end across the islands.
A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island. Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
The broad but disorganized area of low pressure continues to swirl over the western Caribbean Sea. This feature has now been designated as Invest 95L. Strong wind shear will prevent 95L from developing any further over the next few days. However, a surface trough of low pressure extends northward into the Gulf of Mexico from this low and will gradually move eastward through the weekend. As it reaches the Florida Straits Sunday and the southwest Atlantic Ocean by Monday, there is a chance that 95L can develop and strengthen into a tropical depression or storm near or just east of the Bahamas next week.
In the longer range, a cold front will reach the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean early next week. An area of low pressure may try to develop by midweek in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or far northwestern Caribbean Sea near the tail end of this front. This area will be monitored for possible tropical development next week.
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 23, 2020
#545718 10/23/2009:21 AM10/23/2009:21 AM
The Cloud I mentioned in the Caribbean yesterday, is getting nearer to us and it looks as if it could develop into a Storm. I am now seeing some rotation in it. This is not part of the cloud rotation I have been seeing over the Yucatan, which is still bringing cloud over Belize from the west, with some high level from the SE just off the coast. There is a strong surface "Tiger" wind from the SW still.
Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, but with more cloud building and a chance of some rain showers.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 23, 2020
#545719 10/23/2010:31 AM10/23/2010:31 AM
Invest 95-L Located Over The Western Caribbean Is Very Likely To Develop Into A Tropical Storm This Weekend
Invest 95-L, which is an area of disturbed weather currently located over the western Caribbean, is becoming better organized today & I think it’s well on its way to becoming our next named storm. Satellite imagery today indicates that there are some deep scattered thunderstorm activity across much of the western Caribbean, in association with Invest 95-L. In addition, satellite imagery and radar loops from the Cayman Islands indicate that there is a low-level center now located just northwest of Grand Cayman, however, it seems that there is a mid-level center located to the southeast of the Cayman Islands. This means that Invest 95-L is currently sheared and still disorganized.
It appears though that the environmental conditions will become more favorable this weekend as Invest 95-L heads slowly across the northwestern Caribbean. I do think that it is fairly likely that this will be our next named storm (Zeta) this weekend in the northwestern Caribbean.
The track guidance for Invest 95-L is all over the place with the consensus guidance forecasting Invest 95-L to cross western Cuba on Monday before heading into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. From there, the consensus guidance (TVCN model) forecasts this system to head for the Big Bend area of northwest Florida on Wednesday as a tropical storm.
Given how quickly Invest 95-L seems to be organizing today, I think that it is very likely (90-plus percent chance) that this system will become a tropical storm this weekend in the northwestern Caribbean.
From there, I think that a track either northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico or a track northeastward towards the Florida Straits, South Florida and the northern Bahamas seems more likely than a track northwestward towards the central or western Gulf of Mexico. The reason why I think this is because it seems fairly likely that we should see an upper level trough of low pressure move eastward from the central United States by the middle and later parts of next week. This should be enough to pull this system northward towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
In terms of potential threat areas from this system – I think that tropical storm conditions could become a threat across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and maybe the far northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend into very early next week.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Present Condition: Mostly clear. A gradual increase in moisture is expected during the next 24 hours.
24hr Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly along the coast tonight and tomorrow morning, increasing to some, along with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms, then spreading over most areas tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook: Some showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms will continue mostly over central and northern areas Saturday night, decreasing to a few and affecting mostly southern areas on Sunday.
Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 23, 2020
#545727 10/24/2004:29 AM10/24/2004:29 AM
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek levels are above normal and falling, at Santa Cruz, Sari Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas and downstream to the coast levels are below normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are normal and steady.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are below the spillways at Chalillo, Mollejon and Vaca facilities. At Sari Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels are normal and steady. On the BELIZE RIVER. at Banana Bank and Double Run levels are above normal and rising. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels are below the causeway and steady.
REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is near normal and falling. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is near normal and falling. The Swasey and Blades branch of the MONKEY RIVER are at above normal levels but falling. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at Sari Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are above normal and falling. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South is normal and steady and at Jordan levels are near normal and falling. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco are near normal steady.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are normal and steady.
WEEKEND FLOOD FORECAST
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek above normal levels are expected to increase minimally over the next few days, at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, Sari Roman, Douglas below normal and steady levels is expected to increase to near above normal levels over the next few days. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia above normal levels are expected.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are expected to increase at Chalillo, Mollejon and Vaca facilities. At Sari Ignacio, levels are expected to increase. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels are expected to increase minimally. On the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank and Double Run levels above normal and steady levels are expected to continue over the next few days. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels are expected to increase minimally but remain below the causeway over the next few days.
REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun are expected to increase to above normal over the next few days. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village are expected to remain at normal levels. In watersheds on the Eastern Slopes of the Mayan Mountains levels are expected to increase minimally over the next few days. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge normal and steady levels are expected to increase to near above normal levels. On the Swasey and Blades branch of the MONKEY RIVER levels are expected to increase minimally over the next few days. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at Sari Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are expected to increase to near above normal levels over the next few days. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan above normal levels are expected over the next few days. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco are expected to show a minimal increase over the next few days.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER above normal and levels are expected over the next few days.
The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Monday October 26, 2020 at 12 pm.
Heading over bridge at about 515pm...look how STILL that ocean is! To the right and to the left. Spot the lone swimmer. Photos by San Pedro Scoop