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Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 #545741
10/24/20 06:06 AM
10/24/20 06:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear skies this morning. Conditions have become relatively moist and unstable over the area.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for the possibility of gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas across the country.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy skies with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms and periods of rain mainly in the north this morning; increasing and spreading to most areas this afternoon and tonight.
Winds: W-NW, 5-15 kts, Gusty
Sea State: Slight-Rough
Waves: 2-7 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
Outlook: For Sunday and Sunday night is for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the country with the chance of slightly more affecting the south.
Sargassum Forecast from October 21, 2020 to October 28, 2020: The chance of sargassum affecting local beaches in the coming days is low with minimal impacts from any mats that do make it ashore. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure located just south of Grand Cayman is becoming better organized and has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next couple of days as it drifts slowly northward or northwestward. At 3:00am the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 36.9N, longitude 62.0W, or about 355 miles NNE of Bermuda. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is low pressure near the Cayman Islands that is likely to develop into a tropical depression this weekend.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwest Caribbean along 11N from Costa Rica into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection resides south of this trough.

Regardless of development of the low near the Cayman Islands, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba this weekend into early next week. Winds and seas will increase continue to increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic.


  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 11:33 AM High: 6:01 PM
Low: 10:50 PM High: 5:10 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:48 AM Moonrise: 1:26 PM
Sunset: 5:24 PM Moonset: 12:57 AM (Sun)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545742
10/24/20 06:06 AM
10/24/20 06:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. Hurricane Epsilon remains the only organized feature in the Atlantic basin at this time. Epsilon remains a Category 1 (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph) hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Epsilon will begin to accelerate to the northeast over the next 24 hours as it transitions to a powerful non-tropical cyclone.

We are watching a broad area of low pressure near the Cayman Islands which has been designated as Invest 95L. A tropical depression or storm seems likely to develop within the next 24-48 hours as 95L is located over very warm waters. Satellite imagery continues to show 95L becoming better organized as it continues to drift northward and will likely cross western Cuba during the day on Sunday. Regardless of development, moisture flowing northeastward from 95L will send locally heavy rain across parts of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, South Florida and the northwestern Bahamas at times through the weekend into early next week. As we head into early next week, we anticipate that 95L will continue to track northward and will likely be centered in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. Beyond that time frame, it is possible 95L is drawn northward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545743
10/24/20 06:37 AM
10/24/20 06:37 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,983
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a flat calm sea around our barrier reef from a10 mph. Northwest wind and an overcast sky.
Today's expected high temperature is 86 f.

oct 24th.jpg

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545745
10/24/20 09:12 AM
10/24/20 09:12 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
We do have a storm on our door step, even though Wunderground are not admitting it, just an area to watch INVEST 95L. But NOAA do say it is likely to develop, but they say again, going towards thy Yucatan - Cuba straights, but I have seen it move more SW, that is now putting it closer to us, and some of its high cloud is over Belize and other action clashing off shore of Honduras. So we do need to be watchful.

Looks as if today will be a mixed bax of sunshine, cloud and an increasing chance of rain later to day, at first, just in isolated patches.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 26°C 79°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545746
10/24/20 10:36 AM
10/24/20 10:36 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
That storm is certainly starting to effect our weather. Not only is it putting out clouds that are causing some minor clashing, it is also sucking in the cool air from the north, causing it to be NW winds over Belize.

Crown Weather:
Invest 95-L Is Still Expected To Become A Tropical Storm During This Weekend In The Northwestern Caribbean

It still looks very likely that Invest 95-L will be our next named storm of the season, Zeta, possibly as soon as later this afternoon or tonight.

Satellite imagery today indicates that the thunderstorm activity with Invest 95-L continues to increase and is becoming better organized. In addition, barometric pressures near the Cayman Islands are falling and I think that when reconnaissance aircraft get in there to investigate this system this afternoon, they will find that it’s a tropical depression or even a tropical storm.

The environmental conditions around Invest 95-L are favorable for additional organization, development and strengthening as wind shear values are less than 20 knots, especially near the deepest thunderstorm activity. In addition, there is an upper level high pressure system located right over the deepest thunderstorm activity and this will make for favorable to very favorable conditions for this system to strengthen.

The track guidance for Invest 95-L has shifted westward as compared to yesterday at this time. The consensus track guidance now forecasts Invest 95-L to make it to near the far western tip of Cuba on Monday as a tropical storm and then for it to head northwestward reaching the central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night as a 50 mph tropical storm. Beyond this, the consensus guidance forecasts this system will turn more northeastward and make landfall near Pensacola, Florida as a weakening tropical storm on Wednesday night.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545750
10/24/20 12:13 PM
10/24/20 12:13 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy. A broad area of low pressure over the northwest Caribbean supports relatively moist and unstable conditions over the area.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy skies with some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain developing this afternoon and tonight over most areas. Showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms will decrease and become isolated by tomorrow morning.

Outlook: For Sunday afternoon through to midday Monday is for isolated showers and thunderstorms with the chance of slightly more over the south.

A small craft caution is in effect for the possibility of gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas across the country.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545751
10/24/20 02:38 PM
10/24/20 02:38 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
This un-announced storm is now having an effect on our weather. Its high clouds coming over Belize, clashing with the low winds from the north, now causing many areas of rain.

[Linked Image]

=====

Today. A little rain, a little sun. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

========

The rain comes... Photo by Jorge Aldana...

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545752
10/24/20 06:13 PM
10/24/20 06:13 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,235
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
OK, they have finally spotted this and are calling it TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT. I hope they are right about it drifting to the north. But, its present centre is much further south than they are showing here. . . I go by the centre of rotation, the centre of action, I think they use the low pressure centre, which are not always the same place.

Crown Weather:
Reports from reconnaissance aircraft, as well as satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance that was Invest 95-L has organized enough to be declared a tropical depression. The depression is expected to slowly move across the northwestern Caribbean through Monday before heading into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

I still think that we will see this depression head northward across the Gulf of Mexico during Tuesday into Wednesday. I do not believe the model guidance that are showing a landfall as far west as the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline. The reason being is that given the usual weather pattern during late October, it is much more common to see a Gulf of Mexico storm head northeastward towards the area between the Alabama coastline and the west coast of Florida.

Forecast Impacts: Tropical storm conditions are expected across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Monday through Tuesday. In addition to this, heavy rainfall is expected over the next 2 to 3 days across the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys and South Florida.

2A0697B7-1DC8-48BB-834D-A9AF0EC68EE1.pngIMG_1698.jpg

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