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Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 #545761
10/25/20 06:09 AM
10/25/20 06:09 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies this morning. A gradual decrease in moisture and unstable conditions is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for the possibility of gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas across the country.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms, slightly more south.
Winds: W-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight-Rough BECOMING Light Chop
Waves: 2-7 ft BECOMING 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
Outlook: For Monday is for isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a few more north Monday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 21, 2020 to October 28, 2020: The chance of sargassum affecting local beaches in the coming days is low with minimal impacts from any mats that do make it ashore. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure located just south of Grand Cayman is becoming better organized and has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next couple of days as it drifts slowly northward or northwestward. At 3:00am the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 36.9N, longitude 62.0W, or about 355 miles NNE of Bermuda. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Zeta is in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, and adjacent waters through Wednesday, with localized amounts of 12 inches possible.

Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave described the tropical wave section above and that associated with Tropical Storm Zeta, the only significant precipitation in the basin is occurring along the eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough, which stretches from Costa Rica into northern Colombia. To the north of this trough, fresh east winds are occurring across most of the basin.

Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean into mid-week between this system and higher pressure over the Atlantic.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 12:32 PM High: 6:50 PM
Low: 12:10 AM (Mon) High: 6:24 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:48 AM Moonrise: 2:08 PM
Sunset: 5:24 PM Moonset: 1:49 AM (Mon)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centerís Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545762
10/25/20 06:11 AM
10/25/20 06:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located a few hundred miles south of Cape Race Newfoundland, and on Tropical Storm Zeta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 42.8N 53.7W at 25/0900 UTC or 230 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 26 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Epsilon is growing even larger as it accelerates northeastward. Continued acceleration in that direction is expected through Mon night. Epsilon is forecast to become post-tropical later today

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 17.7N 83.5W at 25/0900 UTC or 270 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba moving N at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Although Zeta has been nearly stationary overnight, it is expected to gradually begin to move a bit faster northwestward in a day or two. On this forecast track, Zeta will approach the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Mon night and then lift into the central Gulf of Mexico by Tue night. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning. Deep convection continues to increase mainly south and west of the estimated low-level position. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N-20N between 81W- 87W.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545763
10/25/20 06:36 AM
10/25/20 06:36 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,987
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a flat calm sea around our barrier reef from a13 mph. Northwest wind and an overcast sky.
Today's expected high temperature is 88 f.

oct sunday.jpg

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545764
10/25/20 09:57 AM
10/25/20 09:57 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
In my opinion, that Storm is now a STORM and is not where they said it was, it now poses more of a risk for us.

Yesterday there were two sort of active areas, one where they said, in the north Caribbean and the one I was saying further south near Honduras. Well, this morning there is very definitely very significant rotation and it is just off Honduras, if it moves the direction the say, it could pose a threat to northern Belize, but now it has a loose secondary cloud area just off our coast.

Yes, I see they have now officially defined it as a storm TROPICAL STORM ZETA but still giving the wrong position, they appear to have no idea where it is, I do, but I don't know where it will be going.

[Linked Image]

That secondary cloud area, not exactly part of the storm, but heavier cloud helped by the storm, is likely to be moving in on Belize with cloud cover most of the day and possibly rain in any parts of Belize today, possibly not a lot, but some.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 25įC 78įF Yesterday max. 32įC 90įF Yesterday Rain 17 mm ( 0.7")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545765
10/25/20 12:07 PM
10/25/20 12:07 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy. A gradual decrease in moisture is expected over most places during the next 24-48 hours.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times with isolated showers, isolated thunderstorms and possible periods of light rain, especially over the north and offshore.

Outlook: Monday night through midday Tuesday :- cloudy spells with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms and periods of rain expected over the north and some offshore areas, with possibly gusty winds during the night; while activity will be isolated elsewhere.

A small craft caution is in effect for the possibility of gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Crown Weather:

Zeta Likely Will Impact The Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula As A Hurricane On Monday

Even though Zeta isnít organized today, it is still producing deep thunderstorm activity over the southern part of the circulation. This southward removal of the convection is due to a little bit of northerly wind shear. Right now, Zeta remains nearly stationary as itís caught in a light steering flow. Hurricane conditions are expected across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. This includes Cancun and possibly Cozumel. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next couple of days across central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Florida Keys and South Florida.

An area of high pressure near the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas is likely to induce a northwesterly motion starting as soon as Monday morning. This will lead to Zeta moving very near, if not right over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night as a strengthening tropical storm that could reach hurricane strength by then. The question is how quickly will Zeta strengthen over the next 24 to 36 hours. If the light northerly wind shear ends and we are left with a favorable low wind shear and high water temperature environment, then I think that fairly quick strengthening is possible. I urge everyone on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel to be ready for hurricane conditions on Monday night.

Beyond this, it is likely that Zeta will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as a hurricane. The question is how quickly will Zeta turn to the north and northeast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Right now the European model and the GFS model are about 400 miles apart in their forecast tracks with the European model forecasting Zeta to make landfall on the central coast of Louisiana on Wednesday evening while the GFS model forecasts a landfall on the Alabama coastline on Wednesday afternoon.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545766
10/25/20 06:19 PM
10/25/20 06:19 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
This rotating storm, is not going anywhere at present, still just sitting just of the NE tip of Honduras.
According to their pressure figures, it strengthened during the night, but reduced during today.
1002mb at midnight, now risen to 1005mb

I can't see where it is moving.. . . Yesterday it was two sorts of parts, but now it is closer to Honduras.

Look where they say it is :

[Linked Image]

And look where it really is :

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545767
10/25/20 06:56 PM
10/25/20 06:56 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The storm has started to move, away from Honduras and moving N-by-E I suspect it will intensify over night, I will keep watching until around 10pm I have just spotted that Wunderground now think it will become a hurricane before it gets to Cancun. . . From what I have been seeing, that would not surprise me, but they still have its movement wrong, but it is moving closer to where they think it is. They think it is winding up and I would agree, could get close to hurricane by morning.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 25, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545774
10/26/20 04:41 AM
10/26/20 04:41 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,292
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
San Pedro October Sunsets here just beautiful. Video & Photo by Gach Guerrero

[Linked Image]



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