Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies this morning. Generally fair weather will prevail over the country today.
Skies will appear cloudy at times, while generally fair weather will prevail. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, with a few more developing over offshore and some coastal areas tonight.
Winds: SW-S, 5-15 kts, BECOMING E-SE, 5-15 kts Sea State: Choppy
Waves: 3-5 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
For Wednesday and Wednesday night is for generally isolated showers and thunderstorms developing mostly inland during the day and then especially over southern and central areas during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 21, 2020 to October 28, 2020:
The chance of sargassum affecting local beaches in the coming days is low with minimal impacts from any mats that do make it ashore. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 6:00am Tropical Storm Zeta was centered near latitude 21.3N, longitude 89.0W, or about 45 miles east of Progreso, Mexico.
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The Caribbean Sea
Tropical Storm Zeta is in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The tropical storm will continue in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Heavy
rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
Previous convection over Central America from moist southwesterly
flow over the area has diminished.
Away from the direct influence of Zeta, moderate to fresh trade
winds are noted per scatterometer data across the remainder of the
basin, with the exception of mainly light to gentle winds over
the SW Caribbean.
A tropical wave has crossed the Lesser Antilles overnight and is
followed by fresh to strong east winds. The wave will move across
the eastern Caribbean through tonight, the central Caribbean
through Wed night, and the western Caribbean by Thu night.
Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Wed night.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Zeta, located inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Zeta has weakened to a tropical storm over the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and is centered near 21.0N 88.4W at 27/0900 UTC or 70 nm ESE of Progreso Mexico. Tropical Storm Zeta is moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 17N to 24N between 84W and 91W, including the Yucatan Peninsula. Along, scattered moderate convection is located along a band from 21N84N to 11N78W. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this morning, then restrengthen to a hurricane this afternoon. Zeta is then expected to accelerate northward, and the center should reach the northern Gulf coast late Wed at or near hurricane strength.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
For more information on Tropical Storm Zeta, click here
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 27, 2020
#545807 10/27/2007:42 AM10/27/2007:42 AM
Not much cloud around, more of thin, patchy high level cloud, just a few small regular clouds, which will increase over the day, as a tiny trace of easterly Caribbean wind is just starting.
Caribbean Tropical Development Continues To Look Likely Next Week: Even though a majority of the operational models have dropped next week’s forecast tropical development in the Caribbean, I still think that it is very likely that we will see tropical development next week in the Caribbean. The model guidance seems to be following a pattern of first showing development then backing off and dropping the development before bringing it back just before it actually forms. This is exactly what just happened with Zeta.
I would be beyond shocked and surprised if we don’t see a Caribbean hurricane late next week.
Even though the operational models have dropped next week’s development, the ensembles still forecast development. The European ensemble model guidance has a strong signal for development between Jamaica and Nicaragua by about Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The GFS ensemble model is slightly quicker with its members forecasting development with many members showing development near and to the south of Jamaica by later Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that there is at least a 60 to 70 percent chance that we will see a tropical storm and then a hurricane form in either the central or western Caribbean between about Tuesday and Thursday of next week. In spite of the model guidance dropping the tropical development forecast, the environmental conditions look extremely favorable for this to occur. These conditions include an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, very warm Caribbean waters and La Nina conditions (November tropical storms and hurricanes are common in the Caribbean during La Nina years).
The catalyst for this development appears to be a tropical disturbance that is now located to the east of the Lesser Antilles near 47 West Longitude. This disturbance is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles bringing squally weather on Wednesday into Thursday. This disturbance will then gradually move across the Caribbean this weekend into next week where I think it will develop into a tropical storm and then probably a hurricane.
It is way too soon to determine where this potential tropical system may ultimately go. At this point, I urge everyone in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula to closely watch the progress of this system. Also, any November troughs of low pressure passing to the north of this system could grab it and send it north and northeastward towards Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas and this is something that will also need to be watched closely.
Present Condition: Mostly clear. Generally fair weather prevails.
24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells this afternoon and cloudy at times tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, except for a few more over the coast and sea tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated on Wednesday afternoon, then increasing over southern and central areas Wednesday night Thursday morning.