Belize Weather Forecast: October 29, 2020 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning, especially in the south. Relatively moist and unstablr conditions will continue over the area. Advisories: *A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially in the south.* 24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mostly inland and south today, then mainly along the coast tonight. Winds: E-SE, 5-10 kts Sea State: Light Chop Waves: 2-4 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85 Outlook: For Friday and Friday night is for a similar pattern to prevail. Sargassum Forecast from October 27, 2020 to November 04, 2020: There is the chance that a few Sargassum mats could impact local beaches in the coming days but impacts are expected to remain minimal to moderate. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00 am Tropical Storm Zeta was centered near latitude 35.3N, longitude 83.5W, or about 50 miles West of Asheville, North Carolina. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Click for more... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea There are two tropical waves crossing the Caribbean, one of which has a potential for tropical development this weekend or early next week. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough crosses Costa Rica and extends along 10N to 73W in northern Colombia. Precipitation in the vicinity of the trough is primarily associated with a tropical wave described in the above section. A western Caribbean tropical wave is around 80W and will reach Central America tonight. Another tropical wave along 63W will cross the eastern Caribbean through tonight, the central Caribbean through Fri night, then enter the western Caribbean this weekend. Thunderstorms and gusty winds will accompany this wave. This wave is expected to help low pressure to form in the SW Caribbean this weekend. Gradually development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system meanders in the SW Caribbean.   High Low Coastal 30° C 86° F 24° C 76° F Inland 31° C 88° F 22° C 72° F Hills 26° C 79° F 18° C 66° F TIDES: High: 8:49 AM Low: 2:56 PM High: 8:45 PM Low: 3:27 AM (Fri) Sunrise: 5:50 AM Moonrise: 4:30 PM Sunset: 5:22 PM Moonset: 5:01 AM (Fri) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located over central Alabama.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.





For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

most recent NHC update increases the chances of development to 60% and sends the system into Nicaragua/Honduras.

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have an East wind at 6 mph creating a calm sea around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is 86 f.

Awesome photo Elbert!!!

The easterly Caribbean winds are starting up again, but there is some air moving up from the south ans from the SW There is high level cloud from the east, which has cause a large area of swellups over southern Belize and into Guatamala, probably with some rain. There is another swellup over north Belize that might have brought a little rain.

Looks like today will start cloudy, then increasing sunshine, but cloud building later, a small change of rain.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 25°C 77°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")

Central & Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is Likely Late This Weekend & Early Next Week

A large and strong looking tropical disturbance is now just moving across the Lesser Antilles and will be pushing into the eastern Caribbean over the next 24 hours or so. Analysis reveals that there seems to be already a mid-level circulation associated with this disturbance & I think that once it moves into an environment of lower wind shear this weekend in the central Caribbean we should see it develop into a tropical system.
All-in-all, I think that there is at least a 90 percent chance that we will see the development of a tropical storm and then a hurricane in the central and western Caribbean between Sunday and Tuesday.

Beyond this, the big question will be where exactly will this tropical system track. The model guidance seems to be split in that the operational models, such as the GFS, Canadian and European models show an eventual landfall in Central America later next week.

The ensemble model guidance, on the other hand, shows a very different scenario in that a large number of members of the GFS ensemble and European ensemble models forecast an eventual turn to the northwest and north leading to a threat to the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Florida late next week into next weekend. It seems that the ensemble members that forecast a very strong storm show the turn to the northwest and north while the members that show a much weaker system forecast a westward track into Central America.

Here Are My Thoughts On The Potential Track: I still think that it is way too soon to determine where this potential tropical storm or hurricane will ultimately go. I do think that there are at least 3 scenarios:

The first scenario is that a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the southwestern North Atlantic will push this system westward into Central America late next week.

The second scenario is that this tropical system hangs around the western and northwestern Caribbean for a few days later next week before it gets picked up by a trough of low pressure passing to the north and sent northward. This would lead to impacts to Cuba, parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas next weekend.

A third scenario is for this system to to be pulled northeastward and sent across Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas by a stronger trough of low pressure later next week and next weekend.

Bottom line is that I urge everyone on the island of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula to closely watch the progress of this system as you may be impacted first. In addition, those of you on the island of Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas should also keep close tabs on the progress of this system.

Crown Weather

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USA National Hurricane Center:

A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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Even the latest sleepers among us can agree that—when they happen to get up and catch it, anyway—sunrise is one of the most special times of the day. Caught this one just in time before the skyline changed over our Corozal Bay this morning. Photo by the Corozal Daily

Something to watch here off Honduras. ITCZ swellups causing cloud to build up again.



Present Condition: Mostly clear. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Some cloudy spells during the daytime and mostly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, increasing mainly over coastal and southern areas tonight. Then, a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms will linger over central and northern areas tomorrow mmorning.

Outlook: A few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms will affect mainly inland areas Friday afternoon, then mostly southern and coastal areas Friday night into Saturday morning.

A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially in the south.





Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Goodness, it's a beautiful day. Walking about at 6.5-7 miles north. HOT. Xtan Ha is in the distance.Photo by San Pedro Scoop



By the Seashore. Photos by Marlena Gomez