Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.*
Sunny with some cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly over southern and inland areas today and then mainly over the south tonight. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: N-NW, 5-15 kts Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
For Sunday and Sunday night is for generally isolated showers and thunderstorms affecting the mainland, especially southern areas during the day, increasing during the night especially offshore.
Sargassum Forecast from October 27, 2020 to November 04, 2020:
There is the chance that a few Sargassum mats could impact local beaches in the coming days but impacts are expected to remain minimal to moderate. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is slowly becoming better organized with producing an area of shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression this weekend as it moves westward into the central and western Caribbean Sea. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring this system.
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The Caribbean Sea
A tropical wave is along 69W, from 22N southward, moving
westward at 15 knots. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave
axis near 15N69W. This disturbance is slowly becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours is high. Please the Special Features section above for
A second tropical wave is about 240 nm west of the first wave
along 73W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
These two waves are expected to merge during the next 24 hours
The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern
Pacific Ocean is along 09N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia
across Panama into Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers
are noted south of 13N southward and from 73W westward. Little
change in the position of the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean
is expected through Sunday.
Developing low pressure along a tropical wave in the central
Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Heavy
rainfall is possible in Central America early next week.
A tropical wave located over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
A strong tropical wave continues to progress westward through the central Caribbean this morning. Periodic convection continues to flare up with this wave and there appears to be some consolidation. However, this wave continues to lack a low-level circulation, preventing this wave from being upgraded to a tropical depression or storm. Despite this, infrared satellite continues to show an increasingly organized tropical wave and an organized tropical cyclone is expected to develop, perhaps as early as later today, with this feature as it continues to drift westward through the Caribbean Sea.
We expect this disturbance to develop into a tropical storm and potentially a hurricane later this weekend or early next week. It will generally remain on a westerly trajectory, steered by a broad subtropical anticyclone to the north of the feature. This trajectory will bring the storm into Central America early next week, likely affecting Honduras and Nicaragua. All interests across Central America should closely monitor this feature over the weekend.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, conditions will remain unfavorable for additional tropical development though at least the middle of the upcoming week.
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020
#545903 10/31/2007:13 AM10/31/2007:13 AM
There is definitely a significant drift of cool air coming down from the north, over the whole of the Yucatan, even deflecting sone of the Caribbean air presently. There is only a small amount of high level from the NE, causing a few small clashing areas. But the north cool air is causing a blanket of cloud over the whole area.
Looks as if today will be mainly cloudy, with a few patches of sunshine occasionally, more so in the south. It looks as if there could be some clashing later, causing some rain in any part of Belize, perhaps more so in central areas.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 25°C 76°F Yesterday max. 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 11 mm ( 0.1")
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020
#545906 10/31/2011:06 AM10/31/2011:06 AM
There is a drift of cool air moving down from the north. But with the sun gaps between the clouds, do not assume we will feel cooler, it is presently ridiculously hot for the end of October. It has been raining at the western border off and on since early this morning.
Present Condition: Partly cloudy in the south, more clear in the north. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially over inland areas and southern districts this afternoon, then mainly along the coast tonight, decreasing tomorrow morning.
Small craft caution for occasional gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Outlook: Between Sunday afternoon and Monday midday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect mainly southern coastal areas and the sea. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated elsewhere.
The Yellow circle ITCZ activity, off Honduras, keeps producing rain, and then collapsing. They have identified it as INVEST 96L . It is most definitely rotating, and moving slowly west through the central Caribbean, presently south of Haiti
Both NOAA and Wunderground now think it will develop into a Tropical Storm and now it is identified as TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-NINE and they, at present, think it will come temporarily toward Belize, then, as it develops into a Cat.1 hurricane, dip down at East Honduras, and dissipate in the Mountains of Honduras. . . But, if it does not dip down, then it could come toward Belize.
The BECOL storage facilities on the Macal River became active overnight causing the river at San Ignacio to rise significantly. Therefore, residents in the San Ignacio area are advised to exercise caution as the low-level bridge may become inundated.