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Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 #545901
10/31/20 06:05 AM
10/31/20 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.*
24-hour forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly over southern and inland areas today and then mainly over the south tonight. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: N-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Sunday and Sunday night is for generally isolated showers and thunderstorms affecting the mainland, especially southern areas during the day, increasing during the night especially offshore.
Sargassum Forecast from October 27, 2020 to November 04, 2020: There is the chance that a few Sargassum mats could impact local beaches in the coming days but impacts are expected to remain minimal to moderate. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is slowly becoming better organized with producing an area of shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression this weekend as it moves westward into the central and western Caribbean Sea. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring this system. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is along 69W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N69W. This disturbance is slowly becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please the Special Features section above for more details.

A second tropical wave is about 240 nm west of the first wave along 73W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. These two waves are expected to merge during the next 24 hours near 75W.

The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific Ocean is along 09N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia across Panama into Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers are noted south of 13N southward and from 73W westward. Little change in the position of the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is expected through Sunday.

Developing low pressure along a tropical wave in the central Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall is possible in Central America early next week.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
High: 10:02 AM Low: 3:50 PM
High: 9:35 PM Low: 4:38 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:51 AM Moonset: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM Moonrise: 5:39 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545902
10/31/20 06:05 AM
10/31/20 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
A tropical wave located over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A strong tropical wave continues to progress westward through the central Caribbean this morning. Periodic convection continues to flare up with this wave and there appears to be some consolidation. However, this wave continues to lack a low-level circulation, preventing this wave from being upgraded to a tropical depression or storm. Despite this, infrared satellite continues to show an increasingly organized tropical wave and an organized tropical cyclone is expected to develop, perhaps as early as later today, with this feature as it continues to drift westward through the Caribbean Sea.

We expect this disturbance to develop into a tropical storm and potentially a hurricane later this weekend or early next week. It will generally remain on a westerly trajectory, steered by a broad subtropical anticyclone to the north of the feature. This trajectory will bring the storm into Central America early next week, likely affecting Honduras and Nicaragua. All interests across Central America should closely monitor this feature over the weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, conditions will remain unfavorable for additional tropical development though at least the middle of the upcoming week.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545903
10/31/20 07:13 AM
10/31/20 07:13 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,328
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning it's sunny and the sea around our barrier reef is calmed by a 9 mph breeze from the North.
Today's expected high temperature is 88 f.

oct 31st.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545905
10/31/20 09:31 AM
10/31/20 09:31 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
There is definitely a significant drift of cool air coming down from the north, over the whole of the Yucatan, even deflecting sone of the Caribbean air presently. There is only a small amount of high level from the NE, causing a few small clashing areas. But the north cool air is causing a blanket of cloud over the whole area.

Looks as if today will be mainly cloudy, with a few patches of sunshine occasionally, more so in the south. It looks as if there could be some clashing later, causing some rain in any part of Belize, perhaps more so in central areas.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 25°C 76°F Yesterday max. 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 11 mm ( 0.1")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545906
10/31/20 11:06 AM
10/31/20 11:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There is a drift of cool air moving down from the north.
But with the sun gaps between the clouds, do not assume we will feel cooler, it is presently ridiculously hot for the end of October. It has been raining at the western border off and on since early this morning.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545907
10/31/20 12:02 PM
10/31/20 12:02 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly cloudy in the south, more clear in the north. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially over inland areas and southern districts this afternoon, then mainly along the coast tonight, decreasing tomorrow morning.

Small craft caution for occasional gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook: Between Sunday afternoon and Monday midday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect mainly southern coastal areas and the sea. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated elsewhere.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545910
10/31/20 02:24 PM
10/31/20 02:24 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The Yellow circle ITCZ activity, off Honduras, keeps producing rain, and then collapsing. They have identified it as INVEST 96L . It is most definitely rotating, and moving slowly west through the central Caribbean, presently south of Haiti

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Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545911
10/31/20 03:44 PM
10/31/20 03:44 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Both NOAA and Wunderground now think it will develop into a Tropical Storm and now it is identified as TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-NINE and they, at present, think it will come temporarily toward Belize, then, as it develops into a Cat.1 hurricane, dip down at East Honduras, and dissipate in the Mountains of Honduras. . . But, if it does not dip down, then it could come toward Belize.

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Today's sunset view from Corozal Bay. Photo by Belize Scoop

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Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545914
11/01/20 05:14 AM
11/01/20 05:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,097
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
October’s Blue Moon. Happy Halloween! Photos by Marlena Gomez

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Flood Report and Forecast | October 31, 2020

The BECOL storage facilities on the Macal River became active overnight causing the river at San Ignacio to rise significantly. Therefore, residents in the San Ignacio area are advised to exercise caution as the low-level bridge may become inundated.

================

Monthly Weather Summary, October 2020

National Meteorological Service of Belize

October is typically a wet month for the country of Belize, signaling the secondary peak of the rainy season over most areas and coinciding with the peak of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. The second largest amount of historical tropical cyclones have also affected the country during the month of October. Additionally, other systems such as tropical waves, Upper Level Troughs (UTLs), Surface Troughs (SfTs) and occasional early season cold fronts and frontal shear lines influences the month of October's rainfall.

Being in the peak of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season, the month of October started off rather active with the developement of two tropical depressions (#25 and #26) that would later develop into Tropical Storm Gamma and Hurricane Delta, respectively, within the first week of the month. Conditions over Belize were moist and unstable during the 1st to the 3rd due to the development of a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean sea, an inverted trough east of the country, and tropical depression 25 east of Belize, enhacing a divergent upper level pattern over the area, supporting the development of showers and thunderstorms over the country. These showers and thunderstorms gradually decreased on the 3rd into the 4th with most activity occuring over offshore areas and the northern districts that were being supported by a stationary front over the Yucatan Peninsula. Lingering moisture over the area supported cloudy skies with mostly layered clouds and no significant rainfall activity. The proximity of these tropical systems resulted in a light westerly surface flow across the country which later became strong and gusty due to the approach of hurricane Delta that had formed to the south-southwest of Jamaica on October 6th. A feeder band from hurricane Delta resulted in moderate to heavy rainfall over the northern and some central portions of the country late night on Octover 6th into early morning on the 7th with the highest rainfall amount being recorded at the Tower Hill Station. Hurricane Delta quickly moved on a northwesterly path and by October 8th, was over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Louisiana, United States. An Upper Level Cyclone along with a Northeasterly to Southwesterly oriented Upper Level TUTT overnight thunderstorms concentrated over the southern districts started over the Toledo district and progressing northward late night on Octover 8th into early morning on 9th October with the Punta Gorda station recording 80mm of rinfall.

Drier conditions prevailed from the 9th though to the 14th in week two over most areas with only isolated showers or thunderstorms developing. This was supported by a dry east to southerly suface flow and over the area. The upper level pattern throughout the period was primarliy neutral coupled with a relatively dry mid-upper levels. The wet spots during this period occured in the southern parts of the country around the 12 to 14 October as a result of an approaching tropical wave which was east of Belize and a moist northeasterly airflow due to troughing over the area. This tropical wave enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity in the south leading to 68.7mm of rainfall in Melinda on the 12th and 119.7mm of rainfall in Savannah on October 13. A moist northeasterly surface flow prevailed over the area along with an upper level trough, producing a southwesterly upper level flow and divergent conditions across the country from Octover 14 to 18 October. The increase in moisture and instability led to the development of a few showers and thunderstorms around the country, especially over central and southern areas. A second tropical wave crossed the country on October 19 leading to a few showers and thunderstorms over most areas of the country, decreasing to light periods of rain on the 20th.

Moist conditions persisted in the latter quater of the month as a broad area of low pressure developed over the west-central Caribbean that progressed westward towards the country on the 21st and 22nd, however, this system supported only brief and isolated showers. A west to southwesterly surface flow prevailed over the area supporting keeping most of the showery activity offshore associated with the braod low. During the 22nd-23, this system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cylone as it moved slowly north or northwestward. On October 24, however, the system started to become better organized and had a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. This system supported some showers over most areas of the country. The surface flow had shifted to a more east to northeasterly flow and dry conditions prevailed at the upper levels with a neutral pattern, except for over the extreme south of the country. By the early morning on the 25th, the broad low had developed into tropical storm Zeta which formed over the NW Caribbean and Zeta continues to rapidly streghten as developed into a hurricane late on the night of 26 October. Between October 27 to October 28, skies were cloudy over the area due to lingering moisture from Hurricane Zeta but shower and thunderstorm activity over the country were minimal, except for over the south. The month ended with pre-frontal activiy over the area due to an approaching cold front over the Yucatan Peninsula which supported some showers and periods of rain along with severe thundestorms over the south late night on the 28th into early morning on the 29th, resulting in the Punta Gorda station recording 109mm of rainfall. Rainfall gradually decreased over the south October 30 to 31 and isolated showers and thunderstorms were recorded elsewhere. Additionally, Tropical Depression 29 formed over the Central Caribbean Sea.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal over the northern and southern districts with normal to below normal rainfall recorded over the remainder of the country. In terms of maximum temperatures, the stations sampled show near normal to slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/nighttime temperatures were above normal for all the stations except for Punta Gorda in the south.

Monthly Rainfall Summary

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Monthly Maximum Temperatures

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Monthly Minimum Temperatures

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Rainfall Observed: October 2020 (mm)

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Rainfall Observed: October 2020 (% Above/Below Average)

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