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Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 #545901
10/31/20 06:05 AM
10/31/20 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: *A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.*
24-hour forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly over southern and inland areas today and then mainly over the south tonight. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated.
Winds: N-NW, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Sunday and Sunday night is for generally isolated showers and thunderstorms affecting the mainland, especially southern areas during the day, increasing during the night especially offshore.
Sargassum Forecast from October 27, 2020 to November 04, 2020: There is the chance that a few Sargassum mats could impact local beaches in the coming days but impacts are expected to remain minimal to moderate. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is slowly becoming better organized with producing an area of shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression this weekend as it moves westward into the central and western Caribbean Sea. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring this system. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is along 69W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N69W. This disturbance is slowly becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please the Special Features section above for more details.

A second tropical wave is about 240 nm west of the first wave along 73W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. These two waves are expected to merge during the next 24 hours near 75W.

The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific Ocean is along 09N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia across Panama into Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers are noted south of 13N southward and from 73W westward. Little change in the position of the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is expected through Sunday.

Developing low pressure along a tropical wave in the central Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall is possible in Central America early next week.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES:
High: 10:02 AM Low: 3:50 PM
High: 9:35 PM Low: 4:38 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:51 AM Moonset: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM Moonrise: 5:39 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545902
10/31/20 06:05 AM
10/31/20 06:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
A tropical wave located over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A strong tropical wave continues to progress westward through the central Caribbean this morning. Periodic convection continues to flare up with this wave and there appears to be some consolidation. However, this wave continues to lack a low-level circulation, preventing this wave from being upgraded to a tropical depression or storm. Despite this, infrared satellite continues to show an increasingly organized tropical wave and an organized tropical cyclone is expected to develop, perhaps as early as later today, with this feature as it continues to drift westward through the Caribbean Sea.

We expect this disturbance to develop into a tropical storm and potentially a hurricane later this weekend or early next week. It will generally remain on a westerly trajectory, steered by a broad subtropical anticyclone to the north of the feature. This trajectory will bring the storm into Central America early next week, likely affecting Honduras and Nicaragua. All interests across Central America should closely monitor this feature over the weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, conditions will remain unfavorable for additional tropical development though at least the middle of the upcoming week.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545903
10/31/20 07:13 AM
10/31/20 07:13 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,985
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
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elbert  Offline
On Ambergris Caye this morning it's sunny and the sea around our barrier reef is calmed by a 9 mph breeze from the North.
Today's expected high temperature is 88 f.

oct 31st.jpg

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545905
10/31/20 09:31 AM
10/31/20 09:31 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
There is definitely a significant drift of cool air coming down from the north, over the whole of the Yucatan, even deflecting sone of the Caribbean air presently. There is only a small amount of high level from the NE, causing a few small clashing areas. But the north cool air is causing a blanket of cloud over the whole area.

Looks as if today will be mainly cloudy, with a few patches of sunshine occasionally, more so in the south. It looks as if there could be some clashing later, causing some rain in any part of Belize, perhaps more so in central areas.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 25°C 76°F Yesterday max. 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 11 mm ( 0.1")

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545906
10/31/20 11:06 AM
10/31/20 11:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
There is a drift of cool air moving down from the north.
But with the sun gaps between the clouds, do not assume we will feel cooler, it is presently ridiculously hot for the end of October. It has been raining at the western border off and on since early this morning.

[Linked Image]

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545907
10/31/20 12:02 PM
10/31/20 12:02 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Present Condition: Partly cloudy in the south, more clear in the north. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms especially over inland areas and southern districts this afternoon, then mainly along the coast tonight, decreasing tomorrow morning.

Small craft caution for occasional gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook: Between Sunday afternoon and Monday midday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect mainly southern coastal areas and the sea. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated elsewhere.

[Linked Image]

Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill


Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545910
10/31/20 02:24 PM
10/31/20 02:24 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The Yellow circle ITCZ activity, off Honduras, keeps producing rain, and then collapsing. They have identified it as INVEST 96L . It is most definitely rotating, and moving slowly west through the central Caribbean, presently south of Haiti

[Linked Image]

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Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545911
10/31/20 03:44 PM
10/31/20 03:44 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Both NOAA and Wunderground now think it will develop into a Tropical Storm and now it is identified as TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-NINE and they, at present, think it will come temporarily toward Belize, then, as it develops into a Cat.1 hurricane, dip down at East Honduras, and dissipate in the Mountains of Honduras. . . But, if it does not dip down, then it could come toward Belize.

[Linked Image]

Today's sunset view from Corozal Bay. Photo by Belize Scoop

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Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 31, 2020 [Re: Marty] #545914
11/01/20 05:14 AM
11/01/20 05:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
October’s Blue Moon. Happy Halloween! Photos by Marlena Gomez

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Flood Report and Forecast | October 31, 2020

The BECOL storage facilities on the Macal River became active overnight causing the river at San Ignacio to rise significantly. Therefore, residents in the San Ignacio area are advised to exercise caution as the low-level bridge may become inundated.



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