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Hurricane Eta #545912
11/01/20 05:10 AM
11/01/20 05:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Eta has formed over the Central Caribbean Sea, becoming the record-tying 28th storm of the season and marking the first time the 7th letter of the Greek alphabet is used!

At 9 pm, the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.0N, longitude 74.2W or about 270 miles Southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and was moving westward at 15mph, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph.

The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring this system.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Hurricane Eta [Re: Marty] #545915
11/01/20 05:50 AM
11/01/20 05:50 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point.

The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus.

Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today.

Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today and tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

[Linked Image]

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here


Re: Hurricane Eta [Re: Marty] #545923
11/01/20 11:05 AM
11/01/20 11:05 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
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Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Eta Likely Will Become A Hurricane Within The Next 24 Hours

Is Likely To Bring Hurricane Conditions, Flash Floods & Mudslides To Central America Starting Late Monday & Early Tuesday

Crown Weather:

It appears that Eta is about to undergo a round of significant and rapid strengthening as satellite imagery indicates that the storm has developed a consolidated area of very deep thunderstorm activity. In addition, several banding features are noted as well on satellite imagery. It’s going to be “interesting” to see what reconnaissance aircraft find when they investigate Eta this afternoon. The combination of low wind shear, plenty of moisture and very warm waters will lead to a very favorable environment for significant strengthening. The intensity guidance indicates that there is about a 50 percent chance that Eta will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall late Tuesday.

One thing to note about Eta’s strengthening is that the stronger it becomes over the next couple of days, the more it could “feel” the trough to the north leading to an eventual turn to the north rather than a straight westward track across Central America. Also, some of the guidance just does not make sense to me. Some of the model guidance forecast Eta speeding up as it heads across the mountainous terrain of Central America. This is after slowing down and nearly stalling as it makes landfall. The slow down and stall is something that I agree with & I think that it will occur, but given the very weak steering winds at landfall, I don’t see how a potentially very strong hurricane would suddenly speed up and head well inland after nearly stalling along the coast or just offshore.

The only reason why I can think of why some of the guidance speeds up the forward motion of Eta is that these model guidance are forecasting a weak storm that decouples with the low-level center speeding across Central America. This, I think, is going to be wrong & instead, I think we may be looking at a hurricane and potentially a major hurricane that slows way down as it moves onshore into northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Tuesday.

I think that Eta will probably become a hurricane possibly as soon as later today, but more likely on Monday. I also think that Eta has a shot of rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane during Monday into Tuesday as it begins to slow down on its approach to Nicaragua and Honduras.

At this point, I think that a track that leads this system to first make landfall very near the Nicaragua/Honduras border as a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. From there, the steering currents are expected to collapse leading to Eta to stall along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Wednesday into possibly part of Thursday. Even though significant weakening is likely, I don’t think Eta will be “destroyed” as the terrain across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras is relatively flat. By late this coming week, a gap in the high pressure ridge should be enough to start to pull Eta to the north and even northeast. This means that Eta will probably move back over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean where it could be pulled northward towards Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas next weekend (November 7-8).

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NEMO ADVISORY #1: Tropical Storm ETA
SUNDAY, 01 NOVEMBER, 2020, 6:00 PM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby informs the general public that Tropical Storm Eta located over the western Caribbean Sea south-southwest of Jamaica was centered near latitude 14.9N, longitude 78.9W or about 285 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua Border. The storm was moving to the west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and minimum central pressure of 992 mb. The forecast is for Eta to continue moving westward tonight with a decrease in forward speed followed by a slower motion toward the west-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. The system is forecast to rapidly strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours and is now expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Based on this forecast, Eta is expected to make landfall along the north-eastern coast of Nicaragua late on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

There uncertainty in the forecast after the system reaches the coast of Central America. There is the possibility of the system or its remnants curving west-northwestward then northward and re-emerge over the Gulf of Honduras on Friday. In any event, rapid weakening is forecast once the system moves across the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras and even if the system re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras, it will be significantly weaker. It appears that the most significant impact on Belize will be very heavy rainfall starting as early as Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with locally higher amounts are possible, especially over southern Belize. These rains could lead to flooding and landslides.

Tropical cyclone watches or warnings are not required for Belize as yet. However, the NMS of Belize will continue to monitor this storm very closely and update you of any changes in the forecast as time progresses.

A flood watch is in effect for the Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Farmers are reminded to secure their crops and assets. People living in flood-prone areas are reminded to put food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. If your home is likely to flood turn off the main power supply. Do not remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters. If where you are not, safe move to higher ground, move away from streams and riverside. Do not play or drive in floodwaters. Do not cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. All drivers are asked to put on their hazard light when driving through rain.

NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert and take action if are at risk to flood. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.

The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:

Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140;
Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or Mr. Leiva at 614-7177
Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614-4735; San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865;
Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Pollard at 6143244;
Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or Mr. Eiley at 624 2365
Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 6148604 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891;
Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence), Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632 Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for
Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393

COVID 19 SHELTER PROTOCOLS:
All persons in high-risk coastal areas are reminded IF the need arises for you to evacuate and you are (1) not COVID positive, (2) not in quarantine, (3) not awaiting a test result or (4) being contact traced, and (5) not showing symptoms, move early!

You must wear a mask. Know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Note, people showing symptoms will be contained in a separate section of the shelter building.

Hand washing /sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis. Garbage must be properly disposed of. Proper cleaning and disinfection must be done on a regular basis. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and cough /sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MoH) will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers/ Volunteers) MUST use PPE.

PREPAREDNESS TIPS BEFORE A CYCLONE ARRIVAL:

(1) Avoid being near the coast if your home is not safe if you live on the cayes and along the coast be familiar with the evacuation routes. Know which shelter you will need to go to. Make early preparations.

(2) Protect windows with plywood or shutters,

(3) Review your family emergency plan, consider all COVID 19 measures,

(4) If you can afford to purchase non-perishable foods and water. Store additional water.

(5) Keep an extra supply of medication. If a member of your household is bed-ridden, seek medical advice. Notify authorities ahead of time if you have persons in your neighbourhood require special assistance to evacuate due to a medical condition.

(6) Secure your important documents and identification. Save the emergency contact numbers for NEMO, the police, fire, and medical facility in your cell phone. Keep your phone charged.

(7) Pets are not allowed in shelters, make plans for your pets, continue to trim trees, clear drains, and secure outdoor items. Farmers make plans to move your animals to higher ground and stockpile feed when required.

Re: Tropical Storm Eta [Re: Marty] #545928
11/02/20 05:51 AM
11/02/20 05:51 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline. After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area.

The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very similar to the various model consensus predictions.

Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta.

Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

Eta is expected to produce significant rainfall amounts through Friday evening, this rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Tropical Storm Eta [Re: Marty] #545934
11/02/20 10:13 AM
11/02/20 10:13 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt. The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass through the center. With the continued improvement in organization since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta.

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Crown Weather:

Eta Is Rapidly Strengthening Today & Will Bring Major Hurricane Conditions & A Catastrophic & Life Taking Storm Surge, Flash Flooding & Mudslides To Central America Starting Late Today & Continuing Through Late This Week

As feared & expected, Eta is undergoing rapid strengthening today. Even though the latest NHC advisory has the hurricane at a Category 2 hurricane, I think that it is very likely already at Category 3 strength and well on its way to being a Category 4 hurricane. In fact, the environmental conditions are so favorable right now that Eta could make it to Category 5 strength before it makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua on Tuesday morning. This is expected to be an extreme, catastrophic impact on northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras with extremely major hurricane conditions expected later tonight and Tuesday.

It should be noted that the last Category 4 hurricane in November in the Atlantic Basin is Paloma in 2008. As for the last Category 5 hurricane in November? We have to go back to 1932 for that.

Eta is heading almost due west and seems to be slowing down in forward speed. It is expected that Eta will make landfall near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua on Tuesday morning as at least a Category 4 hurricane. A slow westward track further inland into northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras seems very likely through Wednesday before it turns to the north and northeast. This turn looks very likely now and it means that Eta will very likely emerge into the northwestern Caribbean and strengthen again as we get into Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

All of the model guidance, including the GFS model, the GFS ensemble model, the European model and the European ensemble models, all forecast that Eta will strengthen in the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this week. The individual guidance do have different ideas, however, on where this strengthening storm will head with the European model signaling more of a track towards the Yucatan Channel and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the first half of next week. The GFS model, on the other hand, seems to suggest a meandering track that impacts the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and eventually the Florida Peninsula next week. Unfortunately, it looks like we may not see the end of Eta after it moves inland tomorrow & in fact, this storm may be with us for quite a while.

Forecast Impacts: Eta is expected to bring catastrophic wind damage to northeastern Nicaragua and southeastern Honduras late tonight through Tuesday. Wind gusts of 130 to 150 mph are likely in this area.

In addition to the wind damage, Eta is also expected to bring a catastrophic and life taking storm surge of 15 to 20 feet across the coast of northeastern Nicaragua.

If that wasn’t enough, catastrophic and life taking flash flooding and mudslides are expected beginning later today and continuing until late this week across much of Nicaragua and Honduras. 20 to 30 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are expected.

Flash flooding is also expected across Jamaica, southeastern Mexico, El Salvador and the Cayman Islands throughout this week as Eta remains in the immediate area.

Finally, It is looking increasingly more likely that Eta could be a real big problem again once it moves back out into the northwestern Caribbean late this week into this weekend. I strongly urge everyone in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas to keep very close tabs on the progress of Eta. There is a very real chance that Eta will bring significant impacts to first the Cayman Islands and Cuba this weekend and then possibly to the Florida Peninsula and some part of the Bahamas sometime next week.

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Re: Tropical Storm Eta [Re: Marty] #545945
11/02/20 12:46 PM
11/02/20 12:46 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
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Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor Hurricane Eta which is now a major category 3 hurricane. At 12pm local time Eta was centered near latitude 14.7N, longitude 82.0W or about 85 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua Border. The storm was moving to the west at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and minimum central pressure of 957 mb. The forecast is for Eta to slow down further and to start moving to the west-southwest this afternoon. Based on this forecast, Eta is expected to make landfall along the north-eastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected once the storm starts to move over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras in a westward and then west-northwestward direction.

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the motion of the system after 72 hours but there is the possibility of the remnants of Eta re-emerging into the Gulf of Honduras on Friday where it could regain some strength.

For now the major threat from this system to Belize is heavy rainfall with the possibility of flooding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. These rains could lead to flash flooding, river flooding and landslides. Winds will also become gusty and this will produce large swells and damaging waves along coastal areas of the country. No tropical cyclone watches or warnings are required for Belize since landfall will be well south of Belize over Nicaragua. However, the NMS of Belize will continue to monitor this storm very closely.

--
Ronald Gordon MSc
Meteorologist
National Meteorological Service

================

High still holding it down. Looks like it will curve right around the tail end of the dissipating occluded front. or the high breaks down.

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Re: Hurricane Eta [Re: Marty] #545947
11/02/20 02:44 PM
11/02/20 02:44 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

NEMO ADVISORY #2: HURRICANE ETA

MONDAY, 02 NOVEMBER, 2020,1:00 pm

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public to closely monitor Hurricane Eta which is now a category 3 hurricane. Eta was centered near latitude 14.7N, longitude 82.0W or about 85 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The hurricane is moving to the west at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph with a minimum central pressure of 957 millibars. Eta is forecasted to slow down and to start moving to the west- southwest this afternoon and is expected to make landfall along the north-eastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday.

Rapid weakening is expected once Eta makes impact with mountainous terrain over Nicaragua and Honduras. This is likely to cause Eta to turn westward and then west-northwestward. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the motion of the system after 72 hours. There is a possibility that the remnants of Eta will track into the Gulf of Honduras on Friday where it could regain some strength. Tropical cyclone watches or warnings are not required for Belize since landfall will be well south of Belize over Nicaragua. The main threat to Belize is heavy rainfall, starting later today and tonight. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches or higher is anticipated especially over southern Belize which is likely to cause flooding and landslides. Gusty winds are expected which are likely to produce large swells and damaging waves along the coast.

A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for the Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Southern Belize must brace for and be prepared to respond to severe flooding. People living along rivers and creeks BE WARNED! If where you are is not safe be prepared to move to higher grounds move away from streams and riverside. DONT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. People living in flood-prone areas are reminded to place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. If your home is likely to flood, turn off the main power supply. Do not remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters. Do not play or drive in floodwaters.

Farmers are reminded to secure their crops and assets. Do not cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. Drivers are reminded to put on their hazard light when driving through rain. A small craft warning is in effect. Small craft operators are advised to seek safe harbor.

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

National Weather Service, USA

At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast this afternoon and will continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Satellite data indicate that Eta continues to rapidly strengthen. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued strengthening is expected until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).




Re: Hurricane Eta [Re: Marty] #545949
11/03/20 04:59 AM
11/03/20 04:59 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
This HURRICANE ETA is now up to Cat.4 just before landfall today.
And will be near to us, Thursday and Friday, with a lot of rain, but only a Depression by then.

The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to monitor Hurricane Eta off the coast of Nicaragua. The Category One hurricane poses no direct threat to Belize; however, heavy rainfall is expected. As of Monday, November 2nd, a small craft warning is in effect for the coastal waters. As the weather disturbance moves inland, it is forecast to reach Belize as a Tropical Depression, prompting a flood watch for the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek, and Toledo Districts.

Eta is expected to produce heavy rainfall through Friday, November 6th pouring up to 20 inches in Belize. This rainfall may lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America, like Guatemala and Honduras.

=========

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) with gusts to 91 mph (146 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time.

The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

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Re: Hurricane Eta [Re: Marty] #545964
11/03/20 11:30 AM
11/03/20 11:30 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area today. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and less distinct in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher, but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week.

Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the long range portion of the track and intensity forecast.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

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The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor Hurricane Eta which is now a major category 4 hurricane. At 6am local time Eta was centered near latitude 13.7N, longitude 83.1W or about 30 miles southeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta was moving to the west-southwest at 4 mph with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and minimum central pressure of 936 mb. Eta will make landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua this morning. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall and the system will start to move to the west and then to the west-northwest over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. This will cause significant weakening.

There continues to be significant uncertainty in the track forecast but several of the models now show the remnants of Eta moving as far west as Guatemala before curving northward and northeastward across Belize and into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is a chance that the system could restrengthen into a tropical storm over the weekend as it heads generally northeastward away from Belize. For now the major threat from this system to Belize continues to be heavy rainfall with the possibility of flooding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches are possible. These rains could lead to flash flooding, river flooding and landslides. Winds will also become gusty and this will produce large swells and damaging waves along coastal areas of the country.

No tropical cyclone watches or warnings are required for Belize since landfall will be well south of Belize over Nicaragua. However, the NMS of Belize will continue to monitor this storm very closely.
--
Ronald Gordon MSc
Meteorologist
National Meteorological Service

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Hurricane Eta [Re: Marty] #545968
11/03/20 05:05 PM
11/03/20 05:05 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 70,279
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP

Hurricane Eta near Cat 5 as it bears down on Central America...

400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening should occur as the center moves inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin, and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours. At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period.

Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.



Eta smashed into Nicaragua's northern Caribbean coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday, unleashing fierce winds that tore up trees and ripped roofs off dwellings.

The hurricane, which intensified rapidly from a Category 1 storm on Monday over the warm waters of the Caribbean, hammered impoverished indigenous communities along the coast, already pummeled by high winds for the previous 10 hours.

"The edge of the eye of the storm is already beginning to touch down," said Marcio Baca, head of Nicaragua's meteorology institute.

Packing 140 mile per hour (225 kilometer per hour) winds, Eta tore up trees and ripped roofs off homes in Bilwi, the biggest town on the northeastern coast, also known as Puerto Cabezas.

"We spent the whole night with strong gusts of wind, accompanied by rain," Kenny Lisby, head of a local radio station, told AFP. "It's possible there will be quite a lot of destruction."

Winds tore down the concrete perimeter walls of the town's baseball stadium, and left a trail of fallen trees as dazed cattle and domestic animals wandered through the streets, AFP reporters said.

The Nicaraguan government reported no immediate fatalities, while authorities in Honduras said that a child died in a collapsed house.

France24.com


NEMO ADVISORY # 3: HURRICANE ETA MAKING LANDFALL ON NICARAGUA

TUESDAY, 03 NOVEMBER, 2020, 4:30 pm

The National Meteorological Service and NEMO continue to closely monitor Category 4 Hurricane Eta which was centered near latitude 13.8N, longitude 83.5W or about 15 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta is moving to the west at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and minimum central pressure of 940 mb. Eta is making landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua. Significant weakening is expected after landfall. The system is expected to move to the west and then to the west-northwest over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras after that the track forecast remains uncertain. Several models show the remnants of Eta moving as far west as the Guatemala/Honduras border before turning northward to north-eastward across Belize and into the north-western Caribbean Sea. There is a possibility that the remnants of Eta could develop into a tropical storm over the weekend as it heads generally north-eastward away from Belize or it could move over Belize before moving out to sea.

The major threat from Eta continues to be heavy rainfall and flooding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated. Winds are becoming gusty which could produce large swells along the coast. Belize is outside the Hurricane and Tropical storm wind field however the outer cayes are currently experiencing an increase in wind and wave action. When the system weakens to a depression as it interacts with the mountains in Nicaragua and Honduras the winds should die down and sea swells are expected to decrease. Waves as much as 5 feet above normal rough weather swells and tide levels is anticipated along the coast. A small craft warning remains in effect. The Coast Guard is standing by for any emergency situation. Fisheries personnel in the outer cayes were directed by their management to shelter in place.

Rainfall is expected for the next five to seven days which can cause dangerous floods in Belize. A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for the entire country with particular concerns for Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. People along rivers and streams need to start relocating to higher grounds, if you can shelter in your home place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. Farmers are reminded to secure their assets. DONT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. If your home is likely to flood, turn off the main power supply.


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