Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Very cloudy this morning with rain and wind. In San Pedro, lots of rain overnight. Heavy rain, lightening, and strong winds at the moment. Moist and relatively unstable conditions prevail but improvements are on the way as eta moves out of the area.
Advisories: *A Small Craft Warning is in effect for coastal waters of the country. Operators of small crafts should seek safe harbor. A Flood Warning is in effect for the entire country, especially the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts.*
Cloudy to overcast today with some periods of rain along with a few showers and thunderstorms, decreasing this afternoon and becoming generally isolated tonight.
Winds: N-NW, 10-20 kts , Gusty Sea State: Rough
Waves: 6-8 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
For Saturday and Saturday night is for generally fair weather with only isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from October 27, 2020 to November 04, 2020:
There is the chance that a few Sargassum mats could impact local beaches in the coming days but impacts are expected to remain minimal to moderate. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 6:00am Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.5N, longitude 87.3W, or 65 miles east of Belize City and 410 miles WSW of Grand Cayman. This system will continue to produce rainy conditions with gusty winds at times conditions over Belize this morning and then rains will gradually subside this afternoon and tonight as Eta moves away from the country. Widespread flooding will continue over the country even after weather conditions improve.
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The Caribbean Sea
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eta, located over the Gulf of Honduras. Outside of
Eta, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and
Tropical Depression Eta near 17.3N 87.4W 1004 mb at 4 AM EST
moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.0N 86.6W this
afternoon, move to 19.1N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.2N 82.2W Sat
afternoon. Eta will shift north of the area Sun and Sun night,
with conditions improving through early next week.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eta, located over the Gulf of Honduras.
Tropical Depression Eta is centered near 17.3N 87.4W at 06/0900 UTC or 100 nm NNW of La Ceiba Honduras moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm NE and 60 nm SW semicircles. Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.
Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Further tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Attached is the ECMWF 72-hour cumulative rainfall projection valid for the period: Thursday 6:00 am Nov 5 to Sunday 6:00 am Nov 8, 2020.
Cumulative rainfall of over 12 inches are expected in the elevated terrain and the eastern foothills of the Maya Mountains in Belize.
The flooding will continue in the Stann Creek, Toledo, Cayo, and Belize districts, Also, expect increase flooding in the Orange Walk District. The Belize River Valley will get the impact of the flood waves coming down the Belize River in the next 3 – 5 days. Folks must get their livestock to higher grounds.
Cumulative rainfall of 3-6 is also projected for the upper reaches of the Sarstoon River, and the Mopan/Chiquibul Rivers.
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 6, 2020
#546053 11/06/2006:44 AM11/06/2006:44 AM
Wake up and smell the Rain. And do not complain if you have leaks in your house because EVERYBODY else has them. Smell the coffee, mop the floor, check your neighbors if they are okay. Call Mel Spain and place your order because you don't feel like cooking today. Have a great day. Photo by Angel Nunez
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 6, 2020
#546054 11/06/2008:00 AM11/06/2008:00 AM
Despite where they are showing the depression centre as being way off in the Caribbean sea, so me, it looks as if it is more or almost on top of Belize at present, but who ever is right, it will be moving away to the north during the day. I recorded 47mm rain yesterday, a tiny bit less than Wednesday, and already 32mm this morning, from steady rain, which is more typical of low pressure areas.
Looks as if there there will be continual rain, varying from steady to light, but generally reducing during the day, as the rain areas move up northwards, away from the south.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 23°C 73°F Yesterday max. 24°C 76°F Yesterday Rain 47 mm (1.8")
Present Condition: Heavy rain and winds from TropicalDepression Eta continue. Moist and unstable conditions continue with a gradual decrease expected as the tropical depression moves away from the country.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy to overcast skies with periods of rain, a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, gradually decreasing into tomorrow.
Outlook: Cloudy spells with periods of rain, a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over central, southern and coastal areas in the afternoon becoming generally isolated through to midday Sunday.
A Flood Warning is in effect for the entire country of Belize. A Small Craft Warning is in effect for coastal waters of the country. Operators of small crafts should seek safe harbor.
As you can see, the rain is easing off, but there is a new swellup over southern Toledo, and there can still be more rain about. The Caribbean wind is from the NNE, the surface wind is from the NNE, there is a little high level from the SW, moving the depression away.
BUT the flooding is just starting, as all that water comes down the rivers.. . Even the brand new Roaring Creek bridge is under water, or more correctly, its west approach in Roaring Creek is now under about 3 ft of water, so impassable to most vehicles. . . I was able to get over and round a side road. . . But I had to keep my engine running fast, not easy with automatics, but easy for me, since I normally use two feet driving automatics. But many bridges and road sections are under water and the water will probably be rising for the next day or three.
Flood Forecast for November 6, 2020
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are now steadily rising. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are rising and is now only 0.14metres below bankfull stage at Caledonia.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir at all BECOL facilities have significantly exceeded their spillways. At San Ignacio, levels are now more 7.0 metres above the low-level badge. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is now 3.9 metes above its banks. On the BELIZE RIVER, levels at Banana Bank is at Flood Stage and at Double Run levels are 0.85 metres above Its banks. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels remain below the causeway but is steadily rising. Residents in these areas are reminded to be vigilant of the RISING FLOOD WATERS as the Flood waters FROM THE MACAL AND MOPAN RIVERS ARE NOW MAKING ITS WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.
REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun 6 centimeters below the historical hurricane Mitch level and continues to rise. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is at Flood Stage and rising. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are at FLOOD STAGE and continue to rise. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is in Flood Stage and rising. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER are at Flood Stage and continue to rise. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are at Flood Stage and continue to rise. The MOHO RIVER at Jordan and Blue Creek South is in Flood Stage and rising steadily. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Clique Sarco is in Flood Stage and rising steadk
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are at Flood Stage and rising.
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS and WATERWAYS IN THE SOUTH, WEST and CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY and also the BELIZE RIVER (especially the Iguana Creek, Roaring Creek and Belize River Valley area)
Residents are advised that the CROOKED TREE LAGOON VILLAGE is now under a FLOOD WATCH (as the APPROACH TO ACCESS CROOKED TREE VILLAGE MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE) over the next few days.
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are expected to continue to increase. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are expected to continue to increase. ALERT- RIVERS IN THIS REGION WILL APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE AND CITIZENS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, above spillway levels are expected to continue over the next few days. At San Ignacio, FLOOD levels will continue over the next few days. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels increasing Flood levels will continue over the next few days. On the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank and Double Run increasing Flood levels will persist over the next few days. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, Increasing Flood levels will continue over the next few days.
REGION 11 - FLOOD LEVELS on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun will continue to rise. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village will continue at FLOOD Stage over the next few days. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS FLOOD STAGE LEVELS are expected to continue. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan Flood levels are expected to continue. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco Flood levels are expected to persist.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER Flood stage are expected to continue over the next few days.
The next Flood Report and Forecast will be Issued on Saturday November 7, 2020 at 12 noon.