Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Clear in the east, cloudy in the west and south. Relatively moist and unstable condition prevails over the area.
Advisories: *A Flood Warning remains in effect for some communities, especially those in the Belize district due to downstream river levels rising.*
Some cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mostly inland this afternoon becoming isolated by tonight.
Winds: N-NE, 0-10 kts Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
Showers, periods of rain or thunderstorms will be isolated Sunday morning, increasing to a few Sunday afternoon and night.
Sargassum Forecast from November 10, 2020 to November 18, 2020:
No significant impact from sargassum is expected during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 3:00 am, Tropical Storm Iota was centered near latitude 13.5N, longitude 74.8W or about 340 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica. Iota was moving to the west-southwest at 5mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring the progress of this system and there is the potential for more flooding over Belize in the coming week. At 3:00am Tropical Storm Theta was centered near latitude 32.0N, longitude 20.8W, or about 540 miles SE of the Azores.
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The Caribbean Sea
Tropical Storm Iota is located over the central Caribbean Sea with associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding
Outside of Iota, overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean with seas of 4-7
ft, and gentle to moderate winds W of 80W with seas of 2-4 ft.
Very active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the
SW Caribbean through the weekend. Marine conditions will
gradually improve in the wake of Iota from east to west through
early next week. A cold front may move into the NW Caribbean by
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the far eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Iota, located over the central Caribbean Sea.
Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 13.5N 74.8W at 14/0900 UTC or 300 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 70W- 76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N-16N between 70W-76W and from 09N-11N between 76W-83W. This deep convection extends over far NW Venezuela and coastal sections of northern Colombia producing very heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible. The heavy rainfall threat will shift to Central America later in the forecast as Iota moves closer and eventually inland. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft and are forecast to build significantly as Iota strengthens.
Further tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
There is more cloud around this morning than the last few days. But the easterly Caribbean winds, are being deflected down south out at sea. I think, mainly due to the cool air coming down from the north, but this is contributing or even caused this new storm Tropical Storm Iota to start to rotate, not much yet, but continuing ITCZ swellups to its south, due to the abnormally warm weather we are still having, is fuelling the storm. They reckon it will develop more rapidly tomorrow, and get to Nicaragua as a Cat.2 or 3 on Monday.
Looks like today, we will have more cloud than yesterday, and a little higher chance of some rain.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 26°C 78°F Yesterday 32°C 89°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")
We are actually having our own mid-level depression, resulting in rotating clouds, centred along the Mexico / Guatamala border, less than 100 miles to our west. It is causing clouds to be circulating around that centre, and clouds to build over much of north Belize and ridges of clouds down south. This is not going to be a storm for us. The other storm, now called TS IOTA is several hundred miles to our east. Not clear how it will behave, but it could cause us a lot of rain, or very little impact. Too far away to know as yet.
Present Condition: Mostly clear. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area.
24hr Forecast: Some cloudy spells with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mostly over inland areas this afternoon, becoming isolated tonight into tomorrow morning. A Flood Warning is in effect for communities in the Belize district.
Outlook: A few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly over inland and southern areas Sunday afternoon. Then activity will continue mainly over central, southern and offshore areas Sunday night becoming generally isolated on Monday morning.