Belize Weather Forecast: November 16, 2020 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. A relatively moist northeasterly airflow prevails over the area. Weather conditions are expected to start deteriorating within the next 24 hours or so. Advisories: *A small craft warning will likely go into effect later today. Operators of small crafts are advised to start preparing for their crafts to remain in safe harbor. A Flood Warning is in effect for communities in the Belize district. * 24-hour forecast: Some cloudy spells along with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms, especially over central and southern areas. Winds: N-NE, 10-20 kts , BECOMING N-NE, 15-25 kts, Gusty Sea State: Choppy BECOMING Rough-Very Rough Waves: 3-5 ft BECOMING 7-10 ft Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84 Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms across the country, increasing in the afternoon and even more during the night. Sargassum Forecast from November 10, 2020 to November 18, 2020: No significant impact from sargassum is expected during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Category Four Hurricane Iota was centered near latitude 13.6N, longitude 81.1W, or about 170 miles ESE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua/Honduras border. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring the progress of this system and there is the potential for more flooding over Belize in the coming week. Click for more... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Iota, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Isla de Providencia. Outside of Iota, fair weather prevails across the eastern and far NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate NE winds in the far NW basin. Seas range 3-6 ft outside of the influence of Iota. Iota will move to 13.8N 82.2W this afternoon, move inland to 14.1N 83.7W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 14.3N 85.2W Tue afternoon, move to 14.3N 86.8W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 14.1N 88.3W Wed afternoon, and move to 13.8N 89.7W Thu morning. Iota will dissipate early Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras early Thu. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach to the Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves mix with southerly swell from Iota.   High Low Coastal 30° C 86° F 23° C 74° F Inland 30° C 86° F 21° C 70° F Hills 21° C 70° F 19° C 66° F TIDES: High: 11:14 AM Low: 4:20 PM High: 10:22 PM Low: 5:49 AM (Tue) Sunrise: 5:58 AM Moonrise: 7:26 AM Sunset: 5:16 PM Moonset: 6:53 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Iota, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Isla de Providencia.

Major Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.6N 81.1W at 16/0900 UTC or 20 nm NE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Iota is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next 12-18 hours, and Iota could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight. A westward to west- northwestward motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. Iota is forecast to produce rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, and southern Belize, and isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras, with 4-8 inches in Costa Rica and Panama, and isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, with 3-5 inches in El Salvador and southern Nicaragua, and isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days over the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development could subsequently occur late this week while the system moves slowly westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.







This is the updated ECMWF Model projected 5-day rainfall valid from Sunday 6:00 pm until Friday 6:00 pm.

Hurricane Iota is now a strong Cat 4 Hurricane after rapid cyclogenesis during the past 6 hours.

Rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with locally higher amounts, are projected for the hilly areas of Toledo, Stann Creek, and Cayo districts.



For more on Hurricane Iota, click here

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the North at 11 mph. The expected high temperature for the day is 86 f. The forecast is for a stronger wind from the NE for this afternoon and up to 28 mph tonight and tomorrow with hazardous sea conditions around our barrier reef.

That HURRICANE IOTA is now Cat.4 almost Cat.5 We are now coming under the Caribbean winds from the NNE influenced or driven by this Hurricane. The cloud cover over most of Belize is now under, is not part of the Hurricane, but influenced by it, some is patchy heavy, other is more blanket cover. This could resulting patches of rain in any part of Belize today.

Looks as if we will have a fair amount of cloud, some thin, some heavy which could result in some periods of rain.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24°C 75°F Yesterday 31°C 88°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")

Nice morning in Belize City... Video by George Villanueva



Present Condition: Partly cloudy. A relatively moist northeasterly airflow prevails over the area. Weather conditions are expected to start deteriorating within the next 24 hours or so.

24hr Forecast: Some cloudy spells along with a few showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms, especially over central and southern areas. A small craft warning will likely go into effect later today. Operators of small crafts are advised to start preparing for their crafts to remain in safe harbor. A Flood Warning is in effect for communities in the Belize district.

Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms across the country, increasing in the afternoon and even more during the night.

For more on Hurricane Iota, click here





Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill

FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST
Monday November 16, 2020 1:00 pm

Flood alert for the middle and lower reaches of the Belize River (Belize River valley communities, Crooked Tree and other downstream communities.

Flash Flood Alert for rivers in the South reference impending passage of Hurricane Iota.

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, levels are above normal and receding slowly. Downstream at Santa Cruz, levels are increasing steadily and at San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are above normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, levels are receding slowly and at Caledonia levels are above normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at the Mollejon and Challilo facilities, reservoir levels are receding slowly; however, at the VACA facility the levels remain above the spillway and steady. At San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and continues to recede slowly. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are above normal and receding slowly.

On the BELIZE RIVER. flood levels in the upper Belize River at Banana Bank and surrounding areas, levels are steadily receding, while in the lower Belize River at Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, levels will continue to rise. At Double Run, river levels are approaching the historical Mitch Stage and near the Haulover Creek, levels will continue to rise. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON. levels remain above the causeway and are expected to peak and start to recede slowly.

REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is below the banks and continues to recede slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and steady. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is normal and steady. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER are receding. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South are receding. The MOHO RIVER at Jordan and Blue Creek South are normal and steady. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco is normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are above normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CROOKED TREE, THE BELIZE RIVER VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES.

REFERENCE HURRICANE IOTA, FLOOD ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS and WATERWAYS IN THE SOUTH.

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, levels are expected to continue receding and at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are expected to continue to increase. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, and Caledonia, receding levels are expected to continue.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL and MOPAN RIVERS, levels are expected to continue receding.

On the BELIZE RIVER. in the upper Belize River at Banana Bank and surrounding areas. levels are expected to continue receding. In the lower Belize River at Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, at Double Run and near Haulover Creek, slowly increasing levels are expected. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels remain above the causeway and are expected to crest.

REGION 11 - LEVELS on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun will continue to recede slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is expected to remain normal and steady. In 'watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS normal and steady levels are expected to continue. On the MOHO AND TEMASH RIVERS. an increase in river levels is expected.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. an increase in river levels is expected.

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Tuesday November 17. 2020 at 12 noon.

The first very high level outflow ribbed clouds from the Hurricane are now just starting to approach Belize (Pink arrows)





For more on Hurricane Iota, click here

Today on Ambergris Caye in the afternoon. Photo by San Pedro Scoop



And then here's later in the evening... Photo by Marlena Gomez