Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Hurricane iota affecting the region.
Advisories: *A small craft warning is in effect for the coast of Belize. Operators of small crafts are advised to seek safe harbour. A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding in the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts.*
Cloudy, becoming overcast with some showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms.
Winds: N-NE, 20-30 kts Sea State: Very Rough
Waves: 7-10 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
For Wednesday and Wednesday night is for overcast skies with numerous showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from November 10, 2020 to November 18, 2020:
No significant impact from sargassum is expected during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 6:00am, Hurricane Iota was centered near latitude 13.7N, longitude 84.8W, or about 90 miles WSW of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Iota was moving to the west at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 85mph. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring the progress of this system and there is the potential for more flooding over Belize this week.
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The Caribbean Sea
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iota, located inland over extreme northeastern Nicaragua.
Outside the influence of Hurricane Iota, isolated to scattered
moderate convection is moving across the northern islands of the
Lesser Antilles. Showers are also noted across the rest of the
Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted
in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas range 3-6 ft outside
the influence of Iota.
A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly westward or west-southwestward across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh
trades will prevail SE of the front in the NW Caribbean through
the end of the week into the weekend. Conditions in the NW
Caribbean will greatly improve this weekend as the front washes
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Iota, located inland over extreme northeastern Nicaragua.
Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.7N 84.3W at 17/0900 UTC or 10 nm ENE of El Pia Nicaragua moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Iota is moving toward the west and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday. Additional rapid weakening is expected today into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the center of Iota. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 360 nm in the N semicircle and 270 nm in the SW quadrant of Iota. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
This is the updated ECMWF model 5-day cumulative rainfall associated with Hurricane Iota.
Accumulated rainfall in the hilly central and southern areas of Belize, extending northwards along the central coast will be in the order of 10-20 inches through Saturday 6:00 pm. Expect dangerous flash floods and flooding with this type of rainfall, now that soil moisture is at field capacity!.
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a heavy overcast sky and North wind at 18 mph. The expected high temperature for the day is 80 f. Advisories: *A small craft warning is in effect for the coast of Belize. Operators of small crafts are advised to seek safe harbor.
This HURRICANE IOTA crossed the Nicaragua coast last night as a Cat.4, dropping a it went in, but is still listed as Cat.1 this morning, half way across that country, where it will now start to reach hillier country, then rapidly reduce its winds.
The normal clouds over Belize are from the NNE but outer bands of active weather from the Hurricane are now beginning to come over Belize. There is a particularly strong ling presently off shore, going into Toledo first, but stretching right up to Corozal. There are patches of rain in that line, some heavy.
Presently the clouds are overcast, but there are patches through them in places. But there will be bands of rain coming in, starting in the south, then occurring further north, but with dry periods between them. I am not expecting any wind from the hurricane, but heavy rains can cause their own winds.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 24°C 74°F Yesterday 30°C 87°F Yesterday Rain 8 mm ( 0.3")
Bands or patches of heavy clouds coming in, some with light rain, some with heavy rain patches.
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy. Tropical Storm Iota will continue to support moist and unstable conditions over our area.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy to overcast skies with some showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, increasing to numerous showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning.
A small craft warning is in effect for the coast of Belize. Operators of small crafts are advised to seek safe harbour. A flood warning remains in effect for communities in the Belize district due to downstream river levels rising. A flood watch is in effect for the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo districts, for the possibility of flooding with increasing rainfall this week.
Outlook: For Wednesday afternoon through to midday on Thursday is for overcast skies with continuous rain, some showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST Tuesday November 17, 2020 12:00 pm
Flood alert for the middle and lower reaches of the Belize River (Belize River valley communities, Crooked Tree and other downstream communities. Residents in these areas are to remain vigilant as areas are already saturated giving a higher chance for flooding to occur.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING is in effect for rivers in the South reference impending effects of Hurricane Iota.
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek levels remain above the banks and steadily falling and downstream to the coast at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are now above normal and slowly rising. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are rising now receding slowly.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at Chalillo facility remains below the spillway and at Mollejon and Vaca facilities levels are above the spillway. At San Ignacio, river levels are below the low-level bridge and continue to recede slowly. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town. levels are above normal and receding slowly.
On the BELIZE RIVER, flood levels in the upper Belize River at Banana Bank and surrounding areas, levels are steadily receding, while in the lower Belize River at Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, levels have crest. River levels at Double Run, near the Haulover Creek, levels have crest and are expected to start to recede slowly. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON. levels remain above the causeway and are expected to start to recede slowly.
REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is below the banks and continues to recede slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and steady. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is normal and steady. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER are near normal and receding. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South are near normal and receding. The MOHO RIVER at Jordan and Blue Creek South are near normal and steady. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco are near normal and show a minimal rise.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are above normal and show a minimal rise.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CROOKED TREE. THE BELIZE RIVER VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES.
REFERENCE HURRICANE IOTA, FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS and WATERWAYS IN THE CENTRAL, WESTERN. AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, river levels are expected to continue to recede, and at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are expected to become steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, and Caledonia. receding levels are expected to become steady then minimally rise again through later this evening.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir at all BECOL facility are expected to rise. At San Ignacio. river levels are expected to increase. On the MOPAN RIVER, at Benque Viejo river levels are expected to rise.
On the BELIZE RIVER, in the upper Belize River at Banana Bank and surrounding areas, levels are expected to continue receding. In the lower Belize River at Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, Double Run and near Haulover Creek, river levels have crest and are expected to begin to recede slowly. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels remain above the causeway but have crest, levels is expected to begin to recede slowly.
REGION 11 - LEVELS on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is expected to continue to recede. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is expected to remain normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, river levels are expected to rise to bankfull stage. On the MOHO AND TEMASH RIVERS. river levels are expected to increase to bankfull stage.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER. an increase in river levels is expected.
The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Wednesday November 18. 2020 at 12 pm.
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 17, 2020
#546313 11/18/2012:06 AM11/18/2012:06 AM
You can see the circulating waves coming round over Belize from the east and NE with patches. Several high cloud swellups the length of Belize. More moving in tomorrow. The actual storm is now down to Tropical Storm, probably dropping to just Depression over night, but the rain is likely to continue on and off through tomorrow, quite possibly even more rain than today. . . I expect there still to be some rain into Thursday. That accumulated rain is 6 - 8" generally and 10 - 12" in some places, such as the eastern mountains. So far today, I have got 41mm ( 1.6" )
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 17, 2020
#546314 11/18/2001:43 AM11/18/2001:43 AM