Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Very cloudy this morning. Moist and unstable conditions will continue over the area.
Advisories: *A small craft warning is in effect for coastal waters of the country. Operators of small crafts should seek safe harbour. A Flood Warning is in effect for the Belize, Cayo, Stann-Creek and Toledo Districts, as heavy rainfall from Iota will continue to affect the country for the next few days. Residents in the Belize River Valley and downstream to the coast should remain vigilant as the rising flood waters move downstream to the coast.*
Cloudy to overcast skies with continous rain, some showers and isoated thunderstorms over most areas today, then mostly over northern, coastal and offshore areas tonight.
Winds: NE, 15-25 kts , Gusty Sea State: Rough-Very Rough
Waves: 7-10 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
For Thursday and Thursday night is for cloudy to overcast skies with continous rain, some showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from November 17, 2020 to November 25, 2020:
Sargassum impacts over our area remain low and no major change is expected during the new few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 3:00am, Tropical Depression Iota was centered near latitude 13.7N, longitude 88.3W, or about 20 miles NE of El Papalon, El Salvador.
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The Caribbean Sea
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iota, located inland over Central America near the
Honduras/El Salvador border.
A cold front is just NW of the basin and will move into the far NW
Caribbean later this morning, as is described above. Ahead of this
front, fresh to strong NE winds are already occurring across the
NW Caribbean due to a tight pressure gradient between Tropical
Depression Iota and building high pressure N of the area. Mainly
moderate trades prevail elsewhere, locally fresh in the eastern
Gulf. Seas are 8-13 ft in the NW Caribbean in mixed NE wind waves
and remnant E-SE swell generated by Iota. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail
elsewhere across the basin.
The cold front will stall by early Thursday and will gradually
wash out Friday through Saturday, and the pressure gradient N of
the remnant boundary will weaken. Thus trades will weaken across
the basin this weekend with marine conditions improving.
A 1008 mb low pressure area is noted in the SW Caribbean Sea near
11N83W. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for slow development over the next several
days while the system moves slowly west-southwestward or westward
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the
next several days from Nicaragua southward across Central America
and into Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns,
especially across previously inundated areas.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Iota, located inland over Central America near the Honduras/El Salvador border.
Tropical Depression Iota is centered near 13.7N 88.3W at 18/0900 UTC or 20 nm NW of El Papalon, El Salvador moving WSW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iota is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system later today. Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has dissipated, however a few disjointed bands of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are noted across portions of the western Caribbean. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days while the system moves slowly west-southwestward or westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially across previously inundated areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Recent runs of the GFS and European models have consistently predicted that an area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical storm will form late this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Panama. However, the models were less certain about development of this disturbance in their Tuesday morning runs than they were in their Monday runs. The most recent model forecasts show the disturbance developing very close to the coast of Panama by Friday or Saturday, then potentially crossing into the eastern Pacific Ocean, bringing heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Central America early next week. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Kappa, the 10th letter of the Greek alphabet. If Kappa does form, the storm is unlikely to have sufficient time over water to develop into a hurricane, and it would be a relatively small tropical storm.
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have rain and a heavy overcast sky. The NE wind is 24 mph. Advisories: *A small craft warning is in effect for the coastal waters of the country. Operators of small crafts should seek a safe harbor.
The storm is now down to TD IOTA and is breaking up. The cloud left around the western Caribbean still covers a large area, but does not look as if it will produce a lot more rain for Belize. This storm was born out of a bunch of ITCZ swellups over warm water, and in air much warmer than we should be having this time of the year. And now more ITCZ swellups are continuing to the east of Nicaragua again.
Belize will be covered by low and high cloud most of the day, there will be some clashing, but looks as if less rain than originally expected.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 22°C 72°F Yesterday 26°C 78°F Yesterday Rain 46.5 mm ( 1.8")
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: November 18, 2020
#546330 11/18/2010:59 AM11/18/2010:59 AM
Present Condition: Very cloudy throughout the country. Moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area.
24hr Forecast: Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy along with continuous rain, some showers and isolated thunderstorms across the country. A decrease in rainfall activity is expected over inland areas for tonight.
A Small Craft Warning is in effect for coastal waters of the country. Operators of small crafts should seek safe harbor. A Flood Warning is in effect for the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. Residents in the Belize River Valley and downstream to the coast should remain vigilant as the rising flood waters move downstream to the coast.
Outlook: For Thursday afternoon through to midday on Friday is for similar rainy weather with some showers and isolated thunderstorms.
FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST Wednesday November 18, 2020 12:00 pm
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS and WATERWAYS IN THE CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY (includes - San Ignacio, Benque, Banana Bank, Double Run, Crooked Tree, the Belize River Valley and surrounding communities and Downstream to the coast).
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COMMUNITIES DOWNSTREAM ON THE RIO HONDO.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING is in effect for rivers in the South of the country
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek. Flood levels remain above the banks and increasing, downstream to the coast at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are above normal and slowly increasing. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are increasing.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at Chalillo. Mollejon and Vaca facilities reservoir levels are above the spillway. At San Ignacio, Flood levels have exceeded the low-level bridge and continue to increase. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, river levels are approaching flood stage and continue to increase.
On the BELIZE RIVER, in the upper Belize River at Banana Bank and surrounding areas, Flood Levels are once again increasing, while in the lower Belize River, at Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, Flood Levels have increased. Flood levels at Double Run, near the Haulover Creek, are once again increasing. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON. Flood levels remain above the causeway and are increasing slowly.
REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is below the banks and increasing slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and increasing. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are above normal and increasing. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is normal and increasing. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER are above normal and increasing. Levels on the RIO GRANDE. at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are above normal and increasing. On the MOHO and TEMASH RIVERS levels are increasing and approaching Bankfull stage.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are increasing.
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, expect increasing flood levels through Friday morning, and at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas river levels are expected to approach Bankfull stage. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, and Caledonia, levels are expected to continue to increasing through Thursday evening. RIVERS IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE RIO HONDO ARE TO REMAIN VIGILANT AS FLOOD WATER FROM BLUE CREEK MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER. reservoir at all BECOL facilities are expected to remain above the spillway. At San Ignacio, Flood levels are expected to continue to increase. On the MOPAN RIVER, at Benque Viejo river levels are expected to exceed the banks.
On the BELIZE RIVER. in the upper Belize River at Banana Bank and surrounding areas. Flood Levels are expected to continue to increase through Thursday evening.. In the lower Belize River at Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, Double Run and near Haulover Creek, increasing Flood Levels are expected through Friday. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON increasing Flood Levels are expected through Friday.
REGION 11 - Increasing levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is expected to continue through Friday morning. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is expected to increase. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, river levels are expected to approach Flood Stage. On the MOHO AND TEMASH RIVERS, river levels are expected to increase to Flood Stage.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, an increase in river levels is expected.
The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Friday November 20. 2020 at 12 pm.
NEMO ADVISORY #6 FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BELIZE WEDNESDAY 18TH NOVEMBER, 2020 as at 12:30PM
The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that Iota dissipated into a remnant low over El Salvador this morning. The remnant low was near Latitude 13.8N, Longitude 89.5W over the south-western region of El Salvador. Maximum sustained winds were near 30mph and the system was moving to the west at 12mph. Rainfall continues to be the main threat from this system. Observed rainfall totals this morning across Belize ranged from between 1 to 6 inches. Additional rainfall is expected tomorrow with the highest amounts over central and southern areas of the country. This could lead to flooding and possible landslides over the mountainous terrain. Winds continue to be gusty which will result in rough sea conditions and therefore a small craft warning remains in effect.
All major highways across the country are passable except for Iguana Creek Bridge and Low-lying bridge in Cayo which are closed. Rivers are rising slowly in the following areas; White Ridge Area, Hope Creek, Sittee River, Fresh Water Creek, Cabbage Hay Creek (Santa Rosa) in the Stann Creek District. Water continues to rise in Santa Ana, Big Falls, Blue Creek, and Crique Sarco in the Toledo District. The Mopan River at Calla Creek, Macal at Cristo Rey, Belize River, Mount Pleasant Creek, J&W Creek, Maya Mopan Creek are also rising in the Cayo District. In the Belize District, the water levels are rising in Belize River, Crooked Tree Lagoon, Mexico Creek, and Big Falls Creek. The Rio Hondo and New Rivers in the north are rising slowly.
NEMO and the national Met Service will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.