Flood Forecast for November 30, 2020FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS and WATERWAYS ON THE BELIZE RIVER (includes - Set Ignacio, Benque, Banana Bank, Double Run, SandhiII, Crooked Tree, Maypen, Lemonal, Rancho Dolores, Flowers Bank, Scotland Halfmoon, Boston, Lucky Strike, Rock Stone Pond, Lord's Bank, Burrell Boom, Grace Bank, Western Pines communities and Downstream to the coast - Belize City.
FLOOD LEVELS AT DOUBLE RUN CRESTED ON SATURDAY AND IS NOW RECEDING VERY SLOWLY COMMUNITIES ABOVE DOUBLE RUN CAN EXPECT SLOWLY RECEDING RIVER LEVELS. COMMUNITIES NEAR WESTERN PARADISE ON THE GPH, BURRELL BOOM, LORD'S BANK, LADYVILLE AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RISING RIVER LEVELS. River Conditions
REGION 7 The RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, Doug., and downstream to the coast, remains at flood stage and continues to recede. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, flood stage levels continue to recede.
REGION 9 - Reservoir levels on the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities continue to recede slowly; while at San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and falling. Levels on MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town continue to fall.
On the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank, Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, Double Run and near the Haulover Creek to the coast, flood Levels have crest. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, the causeway remains inundated as flood levels become Mandy.
REGION 11 - Flood levels continues to recede on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Ga. Point Village are above normal and continue to fall. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is near normal and continues to recede. The Swasey and Bladan branches of the MONKEY RIVER are near normal and falling. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are above normal and falling. The MOHO RIVER at Jordan and Blue Creek South is near normal and receding. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sew are above normal and falling.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are above normal and falling. FLOOD FORECAST
REGION 7 - Receding Flood stage levels on the RIO HONDO, at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast is expected to continue. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia flood stage levels is expected to continue to recede.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are expected to continue to recede; while at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge and continue to fall. Receding levels on the MOPAN RIVER, at Benque Viejo Town are expected fall to near normal levels.
On the BELIZE RIVER, at Banana Bank, Belize River Valley and surrounding communities, Double Run and near Haulover Creek to the Coast, persisting Flood Levels an expected to begin to decrease slowly. Flood levels at Double Run exceeded and crest at 0.05cm above the historical TD-18 level recorded in 2008.
Flood levels on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON have exceeded all our gauges. The causeway is expected to remain inundated as flood levels become steady.
REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun flood levels is expected to continue to recede. Receding levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is expected to continue. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, levels are expected to rise minimally. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is expected to see a minimal rise then become steady. Levels on the MONKEY and MOHO RIVERS are expected to become steady then rise minimally. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco levels are expected to recede to near normal levels.
REGION 13 - Above normal levels on the SARSTOON RIVER is expected to continue.
The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Wednesday December 2, 2020 at 12 pm
An Amazing view tonight of the November 2020 Full Moon. Photos by Marlena Gomez
Full moon cool night in Hopkins Village. Photo and video by Hopkins Uncut
Garifuna culture being thought to the youths of Hopkins Village by Gloria Lambey
===================Monthly Weather Summary, November 2020
National Meteorological Service of Belize
November marks the end of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season and the start of the cool transition into the dry season for Belize. By this time, rainfall across the country associated with tropical cyclones and waves typically begin to decrease. During this month, the systems that contribute to the monthly rainfall are Upper Level Troughs (UTLs), Surface Troughs (SfTs), and the increase of frontal systems such as cold and stationary fronts.
November 2020 started off moist and unstable due to the development from Tropical Storm Eta which formed east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. A moist northeasterly surface airflow prevailed, advecting moisture over mainland Belize. This resulted in increased cloudiness and the development of moderate to heavy rainfall particularly in the central regions of the country on the afternoon of November 1. As Eta approached the coast of Nicaragua on November 2, it rapidly intensified and became a major category 4 hurricane tracking on a west to west- southerly path. The pressure gradient tightened over the area leading to a moderate to occasionally gusty north to northwesterly surface flow between November 2 and 3. Conditions became very moist in the low through to the upper levels in a neutral to weakly divergent environment and supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly offshore the coast of Belize and beyond the barrier reef. Numerous showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms developed and persisted across the country on November 4 as hurricane Eta moved inland over Central America. This activity persisted and peaked on November 5 especially over the Maya mountains, Central and Coastal Belize as Tropical Depression Eta re-emerged in the Gulf of Honduras and paralleled the coast of Belize moving towards the Northeast and away from the country on November 6 towards Cayman Island and Western Cuba. The Baldy Beacon station in the Mountain Pine Ridge area observed over 20 inches of rainfall of the 10 to 20 inches forecasted to affect the country, while Central Coastal and offshore areas such as Gales Point, the airport station and San Pedro observed over 15 inches between November 1 to 6. The northern portions recorded at least 5 inches of rainfall. Major flooding occurred as a result of this system, especially in the Cayo and Belize districts damaging homes, roads and other infrastructure. By late night November 6 through to November 7, only isolated showers were observed across the country as conditions became less moist and unstable over the area with Eta, now re-strengthened to a Tropical Storm Eta moved further away from Belize, despite a polar trough being located east of Belize associated with a low pressure system near Cuba southwestward into the Gulf of Honduras.
After the passage of Eta, a gradual decrease in moisture and instability occurred supporting the development of only isolated showers. Mainly fair and dry conditions prevailed in week 2 between November 8 to 13 due to a broad circulation from Tropical Storm Eta and a slack pressure gradient which supported a light west to south westerly surface flow across Belize. During this period, the upper level pattern was neutral to weakly convergent due to a high-pressure ridge over the Caribbean basin and a north and northeasterly upper level wind component. By November 13 a tropical wave which was showing signs of development over the Central Caribbean developed into Tropical Depression 31 then later into Tropical Storm Iota that same day. Over Belize, the surface flow was a light northwesterly flow which veered to the northeast. Generally fair weather prevailed at first on the 13th before the development of a few showers and periods of rain over the northern districts and the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains. Low level moisture increased over Belize on November 14 with a trough over the northwest Caribbean supporting an increase in cloudiness with layered and stratified clouds that supported consistent rain over central coastal areas but only isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere with significant deep convection inhibited by dry and convergent upper levels over the area.
The third week of November saw another increase in rainfall activity across Belize as the country’s rainfall began to be influenced by the development of Tropical Storm Iota over the southern Caribbean Sea. TS Iota moved in a west to southwesterly direction towards the Nicaragua/Honduras border on November 15 and light northeasterly surface flow prevailed with a slack pressure gradient and a ridging, dry and convergent pattern at the upper levels with only isolated showers over the northern districts. As Iota approached Nicaragua/Honduras as a category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph on November 16, the pressure gradient tightened over Belize supporting a gusty north and northeasterly surface flow in a moist and unstable environment, however, shower activity remained isolated and concentrated mostly over offshore and southern areas. This changed on November 17 with skies becoming cloudy to overcast across the country and by late afternoon, the rains from Iota had begun affecting most areas. By November 18, Iota became a remnant low as it moved inland over Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador and rainfall from the system peaked over Belize across most stations. During this week, rainfall persisted though to the 21st as a trough over the northwest Caribbean and a tropical wave that approached and crossed the country on November 21 continued to support heavy continuous rain and frequent showers around the country, especially over northern central and offshore locations. The showers and rain with only isolated thunderstorms were further enhanced by a strong northerly swell, a moist and divergent upper level pattern due to an upper level trough over the area and a south to southeasterly upper level flow. Maximum accumulated rainfall during the November 16 to 20 period ranged from 8 to 12 inches over central and northern areas.
The last week of November was dominated by a ridging pattern at the mid to upper levels supporting a southwesterly upper level wind component and a relatively dry and neutral upper level pattern. Most of the moisture over the area was capped below 700 hPa supporting only shallow convection and cloudy spells between November 22 to 27. Some of this low level moisture being advected over the country was due to early season cold fronts north of the area over the southern Gulf of Mexico and a slight east to northeast surface flow. Showery activity was mostly isolated with periods of rain affecting northern, central and inland areas. The month ended off mainly fair and dry with a neutral upper level pattern and an anticyclone over the country supporting a south-southeasterly component and only a few light periods of rain in the early mornings over the north. On November 30, an approaching cold front over the Yucatan Peninsula seen on satellite imagery, extending just north of the country supported a patch of stratocumulus clouds and towering cumulus over southern Belize leading to a line of deep convection producing periods of rain and a few thunderstorms over the south.
The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal over the entire country due to the indirect impacts of tropical cyclones Eta and Iota as well as an active tropical wave. In terms of temperatures, the stations sampled show near normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/nighttime temperatures were above normal for all the stations except for Punta Gorda in the south.Monthly Rainfall SummaryMonthly Maximum TemperaturesMonthly Minimum TemperaturesRainfall Observed: November 2020 (mm)Rainfall Observed: November 2020 (% Above/Below Average)