Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Clear skies this morning. Generally fair weather prevails.
Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy skies tonight. Showers if any will be isolated.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts Sea State: Moderate
Waves: 4-6 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 81
A similar trend occurs on Friday and Friday night.
Sargassum Forecast from December 29, 2020 to January 06, 2021:
Impacts from sargassum are expected to remain minimal during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic basin at this time. Updates will resume at the beginning of the 2021 hurricane season (June 1).
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The Caribbean Sea
Strong high pressure north of the area is maintaining fresh to
strong northeast to east winds over the northwestern Caribbean,
north of 16N and west of 80W, and over the western half of the
central Caribbean north of 17N between 75W-80W. A large area of
mainly overcast low and mid-level clouds with scattered showers
is over the northwestern Caribbean and over the northern part of
the southwestern Caribbean. Seas in those areas are in the range
of 6-8 ft as indicated by buoy observations. Moderate NE winds
are over the southeastern Caribbean along with wave heights of
less than 6 ft.
Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the region
today as strong high pressure north of the area shifts east.
Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across
most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend.
The Caribbean winds are strong from the SE, right up over Belize and the whole Yucatan and way up into the Gulf, pushing the cold air away. There is some high level cloud that might have caused a little bit of rain in the Stann Creek district earlier, and is forming a line of clashing way out at sea.
Looks as if today will see a fair amount of sunshine after the fog or low cloud clears, there is a small chance of the odd rain shower.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last Night 21°C 70°F Yesterday 26°C 79°F Yesterday Rain 2 mm ( 0.1")
December falls in the cool transition period of the dry season for Belize. Rainfall during the month is normally attributed to the passage of cold and stationary frontal systems that progresses southward from the continental United States and upper and surface troughs. Typically, a frontal system crosses Belize every 10 days but December 2020 saw an average of one front per week.
In the first week of December, residual low-level moisture from the approach a cold front at the end of November that had crossed the country and became stationary over the northwest Caribbean, supporting light to moderate rain over the country between December 1 to 3. Moderate to heavy showers occurred over the Belize district and offshore areas. During this period, a light to moderate east to northeasterly surface flow prevailed, advecting low level moisture over the area. At the upper levels, however, conditions were relatively dry and convergent and an upper level jet with a ridging pattern was observed, supporting a west to southwesterly upper level wind component. Low level moisture persisted through to the end of the first week with an increase in upper level moisture over the area. The upper level pattern became weakly divergent as a broad ridge persisted over the region. No significant showery activity was observed on December 4 and 5, except for isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms over the central, southern, and mountainous areas. Early morning fog and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over central coastal and offshore areas from a pre-frontal trough over the NW Caribbean on December 6, preceded the approach of a cold front over the northern Yucatan. The cold front crossed the country late evening on December 7, producing isolated showers over southern and offshore areas at first, increasing to a few and spreading over most areas by the afternoon. Surface winds veered to a north to northwesterly component.
The passage of the cold front and the building of a strong ridge behind it, led to mainly fair and cool weather across Belize as drier conditions began to set in from December 8 to 14. Little to no rainfall was observed across the country with only periods of light rain over southern areas due to shallow low-level moisture, as the front backed and dissipated over the northwest Caribbean. A moderate north and northwesterly surface flow prevailed, with a west to southwesterly component at the upper levels, supported by an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean. The ridge pattern over the area resulted in a very dry and convergent upper levels, suppressing any significant rainfall activity. The surface ridge began to weaken on December 13 and 14 resulting in a light east to northeasterly flow.
Dry conditions continued into the third week as a ridge over the country dominated the weather and a slack pressure gradient produced a light east and northeasterly surface flow. Only isolated showers were observed, mostly over the south country through to December 17 in a neutral environment. By December 18, moisture levels over the area had increased slightly as another cold front approached the area, extending from central Cuba to the southwest, over northern Belize. This frontal system supported a few showers and periods of light rain mainly over coastal and southern areas. Another fast-moving cold front moved into the Gulf of Mexico and became stationary over the Yucatan by December 21 supporting a moist northeasterly flow, causing an increase moisture over the area with the upper levels becoming relatively moist. This produced showers and rain across the country, particularly in central and southern locations. Ridging at the upper levels over the western and northern Caribbean supported a generally strong west to northwest component and a neutral pattern across Belize.
Mainly fair and dry weather conditions prevailed to start the week of December 22 with a ridge pattern being the main feather influencing our weather. This led to only brief isolated showers across Belize with a light easterly surface flow, while the upper levels continued dry and neutral with a west to northwesterly flow. On December 25, a swift moving cold front crossed the country and extended over central Honduras with Belizeans waking up to a cool and cloudy to overcast Christmas morning with periods of light rain and a moderate and occasionally gusty north and northwesterly airflow. Cool and variably cloudy conditions prevailed through to December 27, supported by a northwesterly surface flow from a high pressure ridge over the area behind the front. By December 28, a low-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean behind the front that had become stationary, supported a slight increase in low level moisture over Belize, producing moderate showers and periods of rain mainly over central, northern, and offshore areas that lasted until December 29. The surface winds became light to moderate from the northeast, advecting moisture from over the NW Caribbean, over Belize. The month ended relatively dry as a ridge pattern dominated the west and northwest Caribbean producing an east to southeasterly airflow over the area. At the upper levels, an anti-cyclone supported a southwesterly wind component further enhancing the dry conditions across Belize. As a result, fair and dry conditioned prevailed with little or no rainfall observed.
The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal over the northern and some southeastern portions of the country due to the passage of four cold fronts across the country, which later backed and became stationary just offshore Belize. Below normal rainfall was also observed over some central inland and the southern areas of the country, while rainfall was near normal elsewhere. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show below normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/nighttime temperatures were near normal for all the stations except for Central Farm in the West and Punta Gorda in the south.
Monthly Rainfall Summary
Monthly Maximum Temperatures
Monthly Minimum Temperatures
Rainfall Observed: December 2020 (mm)
Rainfall Observed: December 2020 (% Above/Below Average)