Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy except in the northeast and in the south along the shore. The weather continues to be influenced by moist conditions.
Some cloudy spells today, along with isolated showers or periods of light rain occurring around the country. Then, mostly cloudy tonight, along with a few showers and periods of rain mostly over northern and coastal areas.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts Sea State:
Waves: 3-5 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 81
For Monday is for some showers and periods of rain mostly over coastal, southern and offshore areas, decreasing Monday night. Otherwise, showers will be isolated.
Sargassum Forecast from January 26, 2021 to February 3:
Latest satellite imagery suggests that sargassum has increased over the area and there is a medium chance of sargassum landing on local beaches with moderate impacts during the coming days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic basin at this time. Updates will resume at the beginning of the 2021 hurricane season (June 1).
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The Caribbean Sea
Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to
near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through early Mon,
with gale conditions developing near the coast of Colombia again
tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean
will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will
propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical
N Atlantic waters into early next week, with the largest swell
expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from
western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it
reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW basin through Tue and the far SW basin Tue and Wed.
Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause
potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing
shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola
through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in
A plume of shallow moisture, remnant of a stationary front, is
supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and Jamaica. Dry, stable air dominates the remainder
basin, supporting fair weather.
You can't see it, but there are several lines or waves of cool air moving over Belize from the NW, despite those, the surface wind, at least over Belmopan, is still from the east.
Present Condition: Partly cloudy. Relatively moist conditions linger over the area.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with isolated showers this afternoon and most of tonight, then showers and periods of rain will increase mainly along the coast, over the south and over the sea tomorrow.
Outlook: Some showers, and periods of rain will continue to affect mainly central, southern areas and the sea Monday afternoon and night, decreasing and becoming cool and dry on Tuesday.
Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
Monthly Weather Summary, January 2021
National Meteorological Service of Belize
January is climatologically the coolest month of the year and falls at the middle of the cool transition period of the dry season for Belize. Rainfall during the month is normally attributed to the passage of frontal systems that progresses southward from the continental United States and upper and surface troughs. Typically, an average of twelve cold fronts, two stationary fronts and one warm front would crosses Belize for the month but in January 2021, an average of one front every 14 days crossed the country, with a few weak fronts passing north of the area.
The first week in the month started off relatively dry due to limited low and upper level moisture, supported by a strong high pressure ridge, extending into the Caribbean basin from the Bermuda high. This pattern suppressed rainfall activity over Belize between January 1 and 2 and 6 and 7, resulting in generally isolated showers across the country, despite a divergent upper level pattern. The slightly moist period was between January 3 to 5 as a result of the approach of a frontal system that saw a slight increase in low level moisture over the area supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly over inland areas. Little to no rainfall was observed elsewhere with a predominantly east to south-easterly low level airflow which became east to north-easterly as the front approached and passed north of the country. A persistent upper level anti-cyclone supported a south-westerly wind component in the upper levels.
On January 8, in the second week, a strong, fast moving front approached and crossed the country before becoming stationary over the Gulf of Honduras, with a strong ridge building behind the front and persisting over the north-west Caribbean. The passage of the front led to a cool, dry and light north and north-westerly airflow though to January 14. Upper level conditions continue to be relatively dry with a south-west wind component during this week and an anticyclone as the main upper level feature. Neutral conditions prevailed during the period, inhibiting any significant convection over the area with only isolated thunderstorms developing over inland areas during the passage of the front. Low level moisture increased further between January 11 and 14 due to the presence of a surface trough over the country. This surface trough supported an increase in cloudiness, a few showers and periods of light rain in the latter part of the week.
A dry period followed in the third week, with no significant rainfall activity reported and a few cloudy spells between January 15 and 18. Most of the moisture continued to be concentrated in the low levels as a stationary front passed north of the country on January 16. On January 18, however, moisture over the area began to increase in both the low and upper levels due to a moisture north-easterly surface airflow, supported by a another stationary front over the Yucatan Peninsula. This increase in moisture supported cloudy to overcast skies across the country with multilayered clouds producing periods of rain over most areas through to the 20th before becoming isolated. A neutral to weakly convergent upper level pattern was observed during the period, thus no significant deep convection was noted, coupled with a light and variable upper level wind component. At the end of the week, a drying out of the upper levels was observed and only isolated showers was noted over southern districts.
Conditions became even drier over the area in the last week, with little to no moisture available for rainfall or cloud development. This decrease in moisture lasted until January 28 as a result of a strong Bermuda high pressure ridge extending into the Caribbean and over the north-west Caribbean. The pressure gradient over the area was tight due to a low pressure system over Columbia interacting with the Bermuda high pressure ridge. Over Belize, the tight gradient supported a moderate to occasionally gusty east to southeast surface airflow. A ridge pattern was also analyzed at the upper levels supporting a south-westerly component between January 22-28 before veering and becoming north-westerly to zonal in a neutral to weakly divergent environment. Weather conditions during this week was fair and relatively dry with only isolated showers being observed up until January 27, then a few showers and periods of rain affected most areas on January 28, with cloudy spells and periods of light rain persisting through to January 30. Fair and dry conditions returned to end the month on January 31.
The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal over the northern and some central locations of the country due to the passage of one strong cold fronts across the country and the approach of several other frontal systems that passed north of the area and a surface strong that persisted over the area in the third week. Below normal rainfall was also observed over the southern areas of the country. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show below slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/nighttime temperatures were above normal for all the stations except for Punta Gorda in the south.