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2021 Hurricane Season Forecast #548726
03/11/21 05:10 AM
03/11/21 05:10 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 79,779
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

From Crown Weather...

Summary: I am forecasting above average tropical storm and hurricane season due to a combination of La Nina conditions becoming neutral ENSO conditions, the forecast of an active Western African Monsoon, the forecast of above average ocean water temperatures and the possibility of lower than average wind shear conditions. Unlike last year, I think the 2021 may feature much more in the way of long-track tropical storms and hurricanes.

The Numbers: 16 Named Storms, 8 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 150. This number basically says that I expect that overall activity in the Atlantic will be above average.

ENSO Conditions: Weak La Nina conditions currently exist across the Pacific and it appears quite likely that the ENSO state will “warm” to neutral conditions by early this summer. Much of the ENSO guidance then forecast that ENSO conditions will remain neutral throughout this summer into this autumn.

Based on everything that I have looked at, I think that we should see neutral ENSO conditions throughout the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. With that said, ENSO forecasts this time of year can be highly inaccurate.

Sea Surface Temperatures: Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin look very similar to what they looked like at this time last year. Across the Western Atlantic and Caribbean (west of 55 West Longitude) ocean water temperatures are warmer than average. Across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are below average.

One difference this year as compared to last year is in the Gulf of Mexico and right along the East Coast of the United States. Ocean water temperatures are below average in the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, but above average across the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, below average ocean water temperatures are occurring right along the East Coast of the United States. These below average temperatures are due to the very cold February and is likely very temporary & I expect to see these water temperatures warm significantly in the coming weeks.

One of the keys in determining how active/inactive the hurricane season will be is how much will the deep tropics (south of 25 North Latitude) warms up during April, May and June. It should be noted that at this time in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, the Atlantic Main Development Region was running a little below average in sea surface temperatures, but this pattern reversed during the hurricane season leading to a much more active season than what was originally thought.

I think that it is likely that the deep tropics will seeing above average ocean water temperatures, much like what we have seen during the last 4 hurricane seasons, during July, August and September. In addition, it looks like the Western African Monsoon will be active this year leading to the development of some strong tropical waves moving off of Africa.

Analog Years: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2021 hurricane season may be like. They are 1899, 1950, 1956, 1996, 1999, 2008 & 2012.

Based on what I am seeing comparing the current weather pattern to the analog years I have listed, I am putting special emphasis on 1996 and 2012 as analog years for this season. This means that the Southeast US Coast, especially along the North and South Carolina coast, could be at particular risk this season for a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. More on that in my landfall threat forecast.

This is our “hot spot” map which shows which areas were impacted the most during the 7 analog years I have listed:

Wind Shear Forecast: A majority of the seasonal model guidance are forecasting below average wind shear across a large part of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during much of the hurricane season. Should this come to pass, it would mean a favorable environment for tropical storm and hurricane formation and intensification.

Weather Pattern Forecast: Current seasonal guidance are pointing towards the possibility that a persistent upper level trough may set up near the central Great Lakes region along about 82-84 West Longitude in about June and July and then push westward towards the northern Plains states near about 100 West Longitude as we get into August and September. At the same time this is occurring, a persistent upper level high pressure ridge may set up near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in July and then push westward into southern Quebec province and northern parts of New England by August and September.

What this means is that should we see any June or July tropical systems, the upper level pattern may be such that the East Coast of the United States may be open to an impact. It also potentially means that May, June and July could be quite wet and stormy across a large part of the Eastern United States.

During August and September, a weather pattern of a trough of low pressure over the northern Plains States and a high pressure ridge over the Northeastern United States could open up the eastern and central Gulf States as well as the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula to possible tropical storm and hurricane threats.

Landfall Threat Forecast: The area I am most concerned about this season for a tropical storm or hurricane impact is a corridor from the northeastern Caribbean west-northwestward through the Bahamas, the eastern and central Gulf Coast, the Florida Peninsula and US Southeast Coast, including Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The analog data and the upper level weather pattern forecasts indicate that a high pressure ridge over either the northeastern United States or Atlantic Canada could guide any storms towards this corridor.

I do think that we could see some long-track storms that form over the eastern Atlantic and then head westward. Based on what I am seeing the data though, the turn towards the northwest may occur just before the Caribbean, which as I just mentioned could put the northeast Caribbean at particular risk this season.

The central and western Caribbean may see below average activity this season as most of the seasonal guidance points towards below average to well below average rainfall throughout this summer and autumn.

For all of the other areas across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, including the western Gulf Coast, the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States and the eastern and southeastern Caribbean – about average impact risk is expected at this time. Any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could put other areas not highlighted at risk.

One Word Of Caution: I do want to say that there is the very slight possibility that this upcoming season could end up resembling 2006 or 1956. Both years began with La Nina conditions, but then quickly warmed to El Nino conditions by the peak of the hurricane season. This led to a below average season for both 1956 and 2006. I don’t think that this will happen as there is pretty strong evidence in the data that suggests we will either “warm” into neutral ENSO conditions or even remain in a weak La Nina state. In fact, we may not see our next El Nino until 2022 or even 2023. With that said, the very slight possibility of a El Nino forming is something that I’ll definitely be watching for in the data.

Finally, we will begin sending out daily tropical weather discussions for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Saturday, May 1st.

2021 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:

Re: 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast [Re: Marty] #549363
04/08/21 11:22 AM
04/08/21 11:22 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 79,779
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
Colorado State University has just released their hurricane season forecast & much like we are, they are forecasting yet another active hurricane season. Their forecast calls for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. In addition, the analog years they are using are concerning as they mostly all had at least one major hurricane landfall on the U.S. The analog years that CSU are looking at that seem similar to this season are 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017.

You can read the forecast from Colorado State University HERE.

Re: 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast [Re: Marty] #550264
05/20/21 02:02 PM
05/20/21 02:02 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 79,779
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
NOAA predicts 6th consecutive above-average hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an above-average hurricane season, but said it doesn’t expect this year to match the “historic” 2020.

The agency said in a forecast released on Thursday that there's a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

This year, NOAA expects there to be between 13 and 20 named storms, six to 10 of which would become hurricanes. Between three and five are expected to be major hurricanes, or those in categories 3, 4 or 5.

If the prediction is accurate, it will be the sixth consecutive above-average season. Hurricane season falls between June 1 and Nov. 30.

Last year’s season produced 30 named storms, the highest number on record. A total of 13 of these became hurricanes and six were major hurricanes.

Another highly respected forecaster is Colorado State University, which was the first entity to issue a seasonal tropical forecast. Experts there issued their forecast back on April 8 indicating 17 total named storms, eight of which are expected to be hurricanes.

There is considerable warmth across much of the Atlantic, where the ocean's surface temperature is 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for May.

That's important because sea surface temperatures are one of the ingredients needed to fuel hurricanes -- so it makes sense that there would be a correlation between those temperatures and an active season.

Another big factor is El Niño, or a lack thereof. When El Niño is present, it reduces Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear -- changes in wind speed and direction that prevent hurricanes from forming.

"The primary reasons why we're going above average is the low likelihood of a significant El Niño event and the relative warmth in the tropical (Atlantic) but especially the subtropical eastern Atlantic," said Klotzbach.

The Climate Prediction Center has announced that La Niña has officially ended. This is important because La Niña and its counterpart El Niño have significant impacts on tropical seasons in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

According to the CPC, there is a less than 10% chance of having El Niño conditions at any point for the remainder of this year. That's not what you want to hear regarding the Atlantic basin.
El Niño is typically preferred for the Atlantic basin, as it helps to inhibit tropical development and enhancement. Having neutral conditions, or La Niña conditions, means that there is no real widespread influence to help restrict tropical development.

Average conditions -- or even La Niña conditions -- create a more favorable environment for tropical storm development.

So, for the moment, El Niño's calming effect on the Atlantic hurricane season does not seem likely for 2021.

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