Belize Weather Forecast: May 20, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy in the NE this morning, less so in the rest of the country. Partly cloudy and windy in San Pedro. A relatively moist and unstable, easterly flow setting in. Advisories: SMALL CRAFT CAUTION: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas. 24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the south today, then increasing ove most area tonight. Winds: E, 10-20 kts Gusty Sea State: Moderate - Rough Waves: 5-7 ft. Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85 Outlook: For Friday is for some showers and thunderstorms, especially over the south, then decreasing Friday night. Sargassum Forecast from May 18 to May 26: The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches continue to be high as satellite imagery shows several sargassum mats over the northwest Caribbean Sea. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: A non-tropical low pressure system has developed about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. Click for more... Marine Conditions: Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill The Caribbean Sea Fresh to strong tradewinds are noted across the south central Caribbean south of 16N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds also prevail across the Gulf of Honduras south of 19N. Fair and stable atmospheric conditions generally prevail across the basin under the influence of middle level troughing and very strong upper level westerly winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms area noted across the coastal waters of Nicaragua and across the western coastal waters of Cuba north of 21N. High pressure off the U.S. East Coast will continue to build across the western Atlantic west of 70W through Fri. This will bring fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will also occur in the lee of Cuba on Fri and Sat. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through tonight.   High Low Coastal 30° C 86° F 26° C 78° F Inland 33° C 91° F 23° C 74° F Hills 28° C 82° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: High: 5:05 AM Low: 10:38 AM High: 4:22 PM Low: 11:37 PM Sunrise: 5:19 AM Moonrise: 12:54 PM Sunset: 6:19 PM Moonset: 1:36 AM (Fri) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system has developed within a broad area of cloudiness and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward. The low is forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

There are currently no tropical systems across the Atlantic basin. However, a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda will likely become a subtropical depression or storm over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere across the basin there is no tropical development expected for at least the next several days.





For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a rough sea condition around our barrier reef from a 24 mph wind from the East. Today's expected high temperature is set at 86 f.

Looks as if there is ITCZ type storm activity coming over the Gulf, which is pushing against the easterly Caribbean winds and probably the cause of last night's temperatures being the highest of the year, over 80°F

Perhaps this is the cause of so much Caribbean cloud over Belize this morning, could cause some rain this afternoon/evening.

Photo this windy morning from Cayo Frances Farm & Fly. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

Present Condition: Mostly clear skies throughout the country. Sunny and windy in San Pedro. Our airflow is becoming moist and unstable. A small craft caution remains in effect for gusty winds and occasionally rough seas. Flood alert: There is the chance for flooding to occur over southern Belize tonight and tomorrow.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy skies today with sunny breaks. Tonight skies will be cloudy. Expect inland afternoon thunderstorms. Tonight and tomorrow expect some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms to develop over most areas but more so over the south.

Outlook: For Friday afternoon thru to Saturday afternoon is for cloudy conditions with out breaks of showers and thunderstorms developing mainly along coastal areas.

Current satellite view.

The swellup activity over Belize moving further south. But there is something causing heavy cloud to come down from the NW, most likely the disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.





From Crown Weather:

Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Western Gulf Of Mexico That I’m Watching

Three is an area of disturbed weather that is now located over the western Gulf of Mexico. This disturbed weather is a result of a large complex of thunderstorms that pushed off of the Texas coast a couple of days ago.

Satellite imagery late this afternoon indicated that there is at least a mid-level spin noted with this disturbed weather and there is a ribbon of slightly less wind shear noted near this spin in the clouds.

I’m not going to kid you, this was kind of unexpected as it’s really spun up and developed in just the past 6 hours or so. It should be noted though that the GFS model had originally been forecasting some sort of development in this area a week ago, but had long dropped the idea. As of right now though, all of the model guidance except the GFS model forecasts at least some modest development from this disturbed weather before it moves inland into the middle Texas coast on Friday night. So, if we are going to see development, it’ll have to happen in just the next 24-30 hours or so. One thing to note is that the latest European model guidance forecasts this system to be a 40-45 mph tropical storm by the time it reaches the middle and lower Texas coast on Friday night.

Here Are My Thoughts: Given how quickly this area of disturbed weather has developed in just the last 6 hours, this system definitely bears very close watching & scrutiny tonight and tomorrow. If we see additional thunderstorm activity develop over this system, I think that a quick developing 40-50 mph tropical storm is certainly possible. At this point, I give this system at least a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm either tonight or on Friday. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that we could see two named storms in the Atlantic Basin simultaneously for a while on Friday night.

Forecast Impacts: This system, whether it develops or not, will bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds of up to 45 mph in gusts, to the lower and middle Texas coast, especially from Corpus Christi to Houston on Friday afternoon and Friday night.



I will be watching this area of disturbed weather very closely and will have updates as needed. The next full tropical weather discussion will be issued by late Friday morning.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

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at Swinging Armadillo in Hopkins... Photo by Hopkins Uncut

We had a tiny bit of rain a short time ago. . . . We may get a bit more rain over the next few hours, but I expect tomorrow, may well be a dry day, and hopefully cooler than today was.

Picture of the stormy night. Mother Earth can be a dangerous and yet beautiful to look at thunder and lightning show over San Ignacio. Photo by Daren Lamb