The swellup activity over Belize moving further south. But there is something causing heavy cloud to come down from the NW, most likely the disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.
From Crown Weather:
Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Western Gulf Of Mexico That I'm Watching Three is an area of disturbed weather that is now located over the western Gulf of Mexico. This disturbed weather is a result of a large complex of thunderstorms that pushed off of the Texas coast a couple of days ago.
Satellite imagery late this afternoon indicated that there is at least a mid-level spin noted with this disturbed weather and there is a ribbon of slightly less wind shear noted near this spin in the clouds.
I'm not going to kid you, this was kind of unexpected as it's really spun up and developed in just the past 6 hours or so. It should be noted though that the GFS model had originally been forecasting some sort of development in this area a week ago, but had long dropped the idea. As of right now though, all of the model guidance except the GFS model forecasts at least some modest development from this disturbed weather before it moves inland into the middle Texas coast on Friday night. So, if we are going to see development, it'll have to happen in just the next 24-30 hours or so. One thing to note is that the latest European model guidance forecasts this system to be a 40-45 mph tropical storm by the time it reaches the middle and lower Texas coast on Friday night.
Here Are My Thoughts: Given how quickly this area of disturbed weather has developed in just the last 6 hours, this system definitely bears very close watching & scrutiny tonight and tomorrow. If we see additional thunderstorm activity develop over this system, I think that a quick developing 40-50 mph tropical storm is certainly possible. At this point, I give this system at least a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm either tonight or on Friday. In fact, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that we could see two named storms in the Atlantic Basin simultaneously for a while on Friday night.
Forecast Impacts: This system, whether it develops or not, will bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds of up to 45 mph in gusts, to the lower and middle Texas coast, especially from Corpus Christi to Houston on Friday afternoon and Friday night.
I will be watching this area of disturbed weather very closely and will have updates as needed. The next full tropical weather discussion will be issued by late Friday morning.
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