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Belize Weather Forecast: May 21, 2021 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy this morning. Cloudy and windy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions are dominating our weather. Advisories: FLOOD ALERT: Localized flooding is possible over low lying and flood prone areas this morning. 24-hour forecast: Mostly cloudy skies today and tonight with out breaks of showers and thunderstorms developing mainly along coastal and southern areas. Winds: E, 10-20 kts Sea State: Moderate Waves: 4-6 ft. Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84 Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for cloudy skies with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms developing mainly along the coat and over the south. Sargassum Forecast from May 18 to May 26: The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches continue to be high as satellite imagery shows several sargassum mats over the northwest Caribbean Sea. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: A non-tropical low pressure system has developed about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. Click for more... Marine Conditions: Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill The Caribbean Sea A stationary front extends north of the region along 20N. High pressure in the wake of the front is north of Cuba. Scattered showers are noted across the northern Caribbean north of 17N between the Mona Passage and 84W. Similar convection is north of Honduras. Most of the open waters of the eastern and central Caribbean are free of any significant precipitation. Fresh to strong E winds are in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area across the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and south of Cuba, through Sun morning.   High Low Coastal 29° C 84° F 26° C 78° F Inland 32° C 89° F 22° C 72° F Hills 26° C 78° F 20° C 68° F TIDES: High: 5:51 AM Low: 11:58 AM High: 5:44 PM Low: 12:20 AM (Sat) Sunrise: 5:18 AM Moonrise: 1:42 PM Sunset: 6:19 PM Moonset: 2:17 AM (Sat) Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

There are currently no tropical systems across the Atlantic basin. However, a storm located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda (INVEST 90L) will likely become a subtropical depression or storm later today or Saturday.

The storm will remain nearly station near Bermuda during the day Saturday before starting to move toward the north and northeast on Sunday. As it moves away from Bermuda Sunday, the storm will encounter harsher environmental conditions, allowing the storm to quickly lose wind intensity later Sunday and Monday.

One other area of concern is in the Gulf of Mexico (INVEST 91L). An area of low pressure aloft is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms throughout the northwest Gulf of Mexico this morning. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for tropical development before this storm moves over Texas tonight. Regardless, this disturbances will bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of Texas and Louisiana today into Saturday.

Elsewhere across the basin, there is no tropical development expected for at least the next several days.





For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

The high level winds are crazy at present, there appears to be 3 or even 4 different high level air movements right now. That area that came down from the Gulf yesterday, came into Belize as expected, causing a lot rain overnight, just after midnight in Belmopan 60 mm ( > 2" ) of rain. That cloud is still over Belize, and still a massive swellup over the sea off Toledo, which could still be causing rain along the south eastern coastal areas.

With so much cloud, I can not tell how today will be, I suspect the present drizzle will dry up and most of Belize will have a dry or fairly dry day, but a lot of cloud. There could still be the odd rain shower, and I can't rule out further swellups, but apart from down south, I am not seeing that at present elsewhere.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 25°C 76°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0") This Morning Rain 59 mm ( 2.3" )

844am and we have light drizzle on Ambergris Caye. We sure need it. Cistern, plants and dust. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have rain. After a long dry period the islands flora and fauna have relief.
Today's expected high temperature is a cool 76f.

It's a glorious rainy day here on Ambergris Caye! The trees are loving it (me too)! Photo by Rosemary Smith.



Still too early to see exactly what is happening, but there are still multiple swellups in this very large storm area. The storm area is drifting slowly up northwards, but some clouds from it are spreading out in all directions. Some being carried inland by the easterly Caribbean wind.

Looks as if the cloud will be with central and north areas for another few hours, but there is some sunshine down south already.



View in Hopkins...



Invest 91 has definite clear spinnage. Dry air is coming in from the south but there could be just enough convection to classify. Maybe a PTC soon for the TX Gulf coast? Rains will stretch into LA on the east side from this. Landfall would be early AM tomorrow.

Present Condition: Cloudy throughout the country. Cloudy, windy and rainy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions prevails over the country. Flood alert:- there is the possibility for flooding to occur over low-lying and flood prone areas.

24hr Forecast: Skies will be mostly cloudy. A few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will develop mostly over inland areas this evening, then spread across the country to linger over the coast and south tonight into tomorrow morning; with a slight gradual decrease by midday.

Outlook: A similar trend is expected for Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday.







FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST: Monday, May 21, 2021 12:00 pm

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, Douglas and downstream to the coast, levels are normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, water level is below normal and steady; and at Caledonia, levels are near normal and falling.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remains below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are near normal and steady. The BELIZE RIVER at the Double Run station is near normal and steady. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON is below the causeway and falling.

REGION 11- Levels on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is near normal. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near normal and steady. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are near normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and steady. The Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER are below normal and steady. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank are below normal and steady. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South are below normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan levels are near normal and steady. On the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco levels are below normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST
Flood Alert -Flooding is possible - be prepared

Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms affected most areas of the country during this morning. The extended forecast indicates that these conditions are expected to prevail developing mainly along the coast and over the South of the country. The river levels are below normal at this time; however, given the forecasted accumulation of precipitation volumes over the weekend, it presents a medium risk of localized flooding of low-lying and coastal areas over the weekend. Residents are advised to remain vigilant and continue to monitor the situation.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY MAY 25, 2021.

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The heavy cloud and storm activity continues to move further out to sea and gradually northwards.
Not clear if there is, or is not any rain in any part of Belize land or not.

Both Invest 90-L Near Bermuda & Invest 91-L In The Western Gulf Of Mexico May Develop Within The Next 12-24 Hours

Invest 91-L Located In The Western Gulf Of Mexico: Invest 91-L is a well-defined low pressure system that is located over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even though Invest 91-L has a well-defined low level circulation and is producing winds of up to 40 mph on the eastern side of the system, there is a lack of deep convection around this system. This lack of convection is due to dry air being sucked into the circulation on its western side.

At this point, as long as dry air is being sucked into the circulation of Invest 91-L, it probably wont develop into a tropical storm. With that said, it's possible that we could see a burst of convection tonight as the circulation of Invest 91-L nears the Texas coast. Should this occur, we could see a short-lived tropical storm move inland along the middle Texas coast near Matagorda early Saturday morning.

Invest 90-L Located Near Bermuda: I continue to keep an eye on an area of low pressure (Invest 90-L) that is located about 300 miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Much like Invest 91-L, Invest 90-L has a fairly well developed circulation, however, it's void of deep convection and at this point, it's not quite yet a sub-tropical storm.

Invest 90-L is still expected to head west and southwestward towards Bermuda making its closest approach on Saturday before it begins to pull away to the northeast. I suspect that we will see some increase in convection tonight and Saturday as Invest 90-L heads into a more thermodynamically favorable environment. When this occurs, we should probably see it upgraded to a sub-tropical storm.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

By evening time:



Weather view from Corozal.

A gorgeous end to a rainy day. Photo by Marlena Gomez