Crown Weather:Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic About 800 Miles To The Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands:
Of interest and concern to me is newly designated Invest 97-L, which is located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Satellite imagery today indicated that this disturbance is gradually becoming better organized with some hints of banding trying to develop and a slight increase in the deep thunderstorm coverage.
The environmental conditions around and ahead of Invest 97-L are more favorable than what Invest 95-L is encountering. Wind shear values are at 5 to 15 knots and there is plenty of moist air to work with. Based on this, I think that there is a quite high chance that Invest 97-L will develop over the next few days as it heads westward.
Taking a look at the model guidance - Both the GFS model and the European model is forecasting at least some development from Invest 97-L. The GFS model is much more aggressive with its development and strengthening forecast with the European model showing a much more tame forecast, but it's at least showing some development.
As for the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance forecasts development of Invest 97-L before it reaches the Windward Islands on Friday with quite a few members forecasting this system to remain a tropical cyclone as it heads west-northwestward across the Caribbean this weekend into early next week.
Quite a few members of the European ensemble model guidance forecasts development of Invest 97-L as soon as Wednesday night or Thursday with this system crossing Barbados and the Windward Islands on Friday. The ensemble members showing a tropical cyclone decrease once this system enters the Caribbean, which could mean Invest 97-L may undergo weakening this weekend in the Caribbean.
The track model guidance shows a pretty much just north of due west track for the next few days with the guidance showing Invest 97-L crossing Barbados on Friday morning and then the Windward Islands late Friday. A track into the eastern and central Caribbean is then forecast by the track model guidance this weekend.
The intensity guidance all show pretty steady intensification for the next few days of Invest 97-L to at least tropical storm strength.Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 97-L
: I think that the chances that Invest 97-L will become a tropical storm before it reaches the Windward Islands on Friday is at around 75 percent.
The reason why I think this is because Invest 97-L is traveling at a rather low latitude (around 8-9 North Latitude) and because of this, it is staying away from the drier air and the higher wind shear that is located to the north. In addition to this, it looks likely that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will intersect with Invest 97-L late this week and this could give the disturbance an extra boost consisting of energy and moisture leading it to develop.
we'll have to see what the environmental conditions are like in the Caribbean this weekend when Invest 97-L moves through. Right now, the wind shear conditions across all of the Caribbean are highly unfavorable and if this continues, then weakening would be extremely likely from Invest 97-L in the Caribbean. For now, I urge everyone in the Caribbean to just keep an eye on Invest 97-L.