Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies this morning, especially in the north. Partly cloudy and windy in San Pedro. A moist and unstable airflow will continue to dominate our weather.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. FLOOD WATCH: There is the possibility for flooding over low lying and flood prone areas.
Today skies will be mostly cloudy. Tonight skies will be cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly over central and coastal areas during day. Tonight and tomorrow morning expect some outbreaks of showers, few thunderstorms and periods of rain to affect most areas.
Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts Sea State:
Waves: 4-6 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Thursday and Thursday night is for cloudy skies with some showers and thunderstorms developing over most areas during the day, then gradually decreasing during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from June 29 to July 7:
The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches will remain high during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 6 p.m. Tuesday, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands, and has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next few days.
Click for more...
Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
The Caribbean Sea
There is a potential
for a low pressure currently centered midway between Africa and
the Windward Islands to develop into a tropical depression over
the next few days.
High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean. Fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 7-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, highest just north
of Colombia. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the NW Caribbean,
and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a tropical wave currently located a couple
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has only a low chance of
development as it moves quickly W to WNW at 20 to 25 kt. However,
as it passes through the Lesser Antilles today and then across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week, locally
heavy rain from disorganized showers and thunderstorms can be
expected. Farther east, a broad low pressure associated with a
tropical wave midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms
that are showing some signs of organization. Conditions appear
favorable for development and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves WNW around 20
kt. The system may impact the Windward and Leeward islands
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
On this Wednesday morning, a broad area of low pressure (97L), associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. It has a medium (60 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (80 percent) chance during the next five days. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday.
Elsewhere over the Atlantic basin, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2021
#551188 06/30/2106:13 AM06/30/2106:13 AM
Tropical wave to the south of the country, in addition to a wave induced by higher instability and an east wave over our region, will be generating storms in the area of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center reports that 97L has been better organized in the past few hours, and a tropical depression or tropical storm Elsa could be forming in the coming days. The system is moving in an area generally favorable for its evolution, therefore additional development is expected on its way to the Caribbean Islands. The entire Caribbean basin will encounter an enhanced chance of squally weather spreading from east to west, June 30 -July 4, 2021. The NHC-Miami may issue their first map as early as noon today, June 30, 2021, as 97L appears to be close to if not already a tropical depression.
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2021
#551189 06/30/2106:45 AM06/30/2106:45 AM
There is a strong easterly Caribbean wind over the whole area, with significant cloud. The high level is slow from the NW, but there appears to be other weather moving up from the south, causing a fair bit of clashing and a lot of rain in many places overnight and this morning.
Looks as if today will be largely cloudy, with significant patches of rain from time to time.
Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last Night 23°C 73°F Yesterday max. 30°C 86°F Yesterday Rain 0.4 mm ( 0.03") Over Night Rain 8.6 mm (0.34")
Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 30, 2021
#551193 06/30/2110:50 AM06/30/2110:50 AM
Invest 97-L Is Very Likely To Develop Into Tropical Storm Elsa Before It Reaches The Lesser Antilles On Friday
Invest 97-L is becoming increasingly more organized with every passing hour. Satellite imagery today indicated that the entire disturbance is becoming increasingly more wrapped up with satellite estimated winds indicating that there may be a low-level center forming. Estimated winds from satellite imagery indicated that winds of up to tropical storm strength are occurring on the northern side of Invest 97-L.
Analysis indicated that the environmental conditions are favorable for development with favorable wind shear values and more than enough moisture to work with. It seems that Invest 95-L that is located right over the Lesser Antilles is moistening up the environment for Invest 97-L. It should be not that Invest 95-L is not expected to develop. All-in-all, it appears that things will be favorable for this disturbance to develop into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm before it reaches the Windward Islands on Friday. This means that those of you in the Windward Islands and on the island of Barbados should be prepared for tropical storm conditions during Friday.
At this point, I think that a track that takes it from the southeastern Caribbean on Friday evening to near Jamaica on Sunday and the Cayman Islands around Sunday night. Beyond this, it’s possible that a gradual turn to the northwest towards westernmost Cuba and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico could occur by about Monday night. I think that we are seeing the usual bias in the GFS model in breaking down the high pressure ridge too quickly and in the end, we should probably see a more robust high pressure ridge guide this system across much of the length of the Caribbean.
The intensity forecast is much more difficult because while I think that Invest 97-L will be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Windward Islands, some weakening is possible in the eastern half of the Caribbean. The reason why is because strong easterly winds in this area could lead to the low-level center and the mid-level center decoupling and the whole structure of this system tipping over. When this occurs, you usually see weakening of any tropical system.
With that said, should Invest 97-L enter the Caribbean as a fairly strong tropical storm, it’s structure could offset those strong easterly winds and thus not weaken at all as it heads west-northwestward. It's not an easy forecast for intensity in the Caribbean.
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Present Condition: Cloudy skies. Cloudy and windy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions will linger over the area during the next 24 hours, then weather conditions will gradually improve going into the weekend. There is the chance for localized flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially in central and northern coastal areas. A small craft caution likely to go into effect tonight for locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.
24hr Forecast: Skies will be cloudy at times during the daytime and cloudy tonight. A few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will continue mostly over northern and central locations this afternoon, increasing to some later tonight and tomorrow morning over most areas, especially in the northern and central districts.
Outlook: A gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected Thursday afternoon through to midday of Friday. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated.
Flood Report and Forecast for June 30, 2021
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek and Santa Cruz, levels are near normal and steady; and, at San Antonio and San Roman levels are increasing slowly. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill levels are below normal and steady and at Caledonia levels are near normal and increasing slowly.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. Levels on the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town are below normal and steady.
The BELIZE RIVER at the Double Run is below normal and steady. The CROOKED TREE LAGOON remains below the causeway and steady.
REGION 11 - Levels on the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is below normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is above normal and falling. The watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS are below normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is near normal and steady. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are below normal and steady. Levels on the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank are below normal and steady. The RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are below normal and steady. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan are near normal and steady. The TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is below normal and steady.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are normal and steady.
REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the coast, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and at Caledonia, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.
REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at the Chalillo and Mollejon facilities are expected to approach the spillways and at the Vaca facility, levels are expected to exceed the spillway; at San Ignacio, levels are expected to increase but remain below the low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.
On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are expected to increase to above normal; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels are expected to remain below the causeway.
REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village increasing levels are expected. In the watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, below normal levels are expected increase to near normal levels. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, a minimal increase in river levels is expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.
REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, an increase in river levels is expected.
THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON JULY 2, 2021
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 97-L to Potential Tropical Cyclone #5. I think that this system will bring tropical storm conditions to Barbados and the Windward Islands during the day on Friday.
Its fate in the Caribbean remains highly uncertain due to the fact it will be moving at a rather quick forward speed. This could cause the storm to become tilted and weaken as it heads west-northwestward across the Caribbean this weekend. With that said, this is not at all certain and it is possible that it could still strengthen more even though its moving at a quick forward speed. I urge everyone on the island of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to closely monitor the progress of this system. Also, interests in Cuba and Hispaniola should also closely monitor this system as well.
Finally, it is extremely uncertain whether this system will even make it out of the Caribbean and that depends on whether it maintains itself or not. If, and this a HUGE if, PTC #5 does survive and thrive in the Caribbean, it could become a threat to the Florida Peninsula and the eastern US Gulf Coast during the first half of next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. When that occurs, it will be named "Elsa".
June marks the start of the 2021 wet/Atlantic hurricane season and is typically the month where most stations observe their fist rainfall peak in the annual cycle. By June, the rainy season had officially started across the country. Despite the early start of the 2021 rainy season which started around mid-May for most areas, the month of June saw a dry spell across most areas. Rainfall is typically attributed to Upper Level Troughs, Surface Troughs, Tropical waves, Tropical storms and Hurricanes which moves westward through the Caribbean and. An average of two upper-level troughs, four surface troughs, one mid to upper level low and fifteen tropical waves would pass over the country in June, however, only two surface troughs and four tropical waves crossed the country with two of the TW being weak.
After the early start of the 2021 rainy season, the country began to go through a dry spell as ridging dominated the area. Low and upper level moisture was minimal with subsidence for the first two days of week one and this supported mainly fair weather and isolated showers. Despite a slight increase in low level moisture for the remainder of the week, ridging and continued subsidence at the upper levels kept showers and thunderstorm activity isolated and brief over the country. The ridge supported a light to moderate easterly surface flow while a TUTT low over the central Cuba extending to the southwest Caribbean produced a north-westerly wind component at the upper levels.
An increase in low level moisture continued in week two due to a surface trough over the Yucatan and southern Mexico, however, the North Atlantic Ridge was the dominant feature over the Caribbean Basin. At the upper levels, conditions also became moist and neutral to weakly divergent leading to an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity overnight and early mornings over most areas of the country, especially over southern areas. This activity was enhanced by an anti-cyclone over the area giving upper level outflow and a tropical wave advecting moisture over the country as it approached the area. The upper levels winds were primarily north-westerly during this period becoming west to south-westerly at intervals.
Moist and unstable conditions continued into week three over the country as a low-pressure system developed over southwestern Mexico, west of Belize, which later became potential tropical cyclone number three. The passage of a tropical wave across the country on June 15 to 16 further enhanced instability and moisture over the country. This moisture and instability extended through to the upper levels with an upper-level anti-cyclone producing a north to north-westerly flow. Divergent conditions at the upper levels provided outflow and supported the development of deep convection over most areas from June 15 to June 19 leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the Orange Walk, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo districts due to the tropical wave. As potential tropical cyclone three which became tropical depression Claudette moved further away from our area and impacted south-eastern United States and the tropical wave continued westward, moisture levels in the upper levels decreased with only some residual low-level moisture, resulting in drier conditions across the country. The upper levels also became neutral to weakly convergent. Riding supported an east to south-easterly airflow over the area and only isolated showers and thunderstorms prevailed on June 20 and 21, despite another weak tropical wave crossing on June 20th.
During the last week of June, two weak tropical waves traversed the area and crossed over Belize on June 22 and June 27. Relatively moist conditions prevailed in the low levels during this period with a dry spell om June 23 and 24 as the North Atlantic High-Pressure Ridge extended over the Caribbean. The ridge pattern over the area supported an east to south-easterly moderate to occasionally gusty surface flow. At the upper levels, the anticyclone over Mexico supported a north to north-westerly wind component, except for June 27 where the flow was south-westerly, and conditions were mostly moist through to the end of the month. The upper-level pattern was neutral to weakly convergent supporting only isolated showers and thunderstorms across the country, except for a few more over some southern and central locations. With the passage of a tropical wave on June 27 and a mid-level low which was reflected near the surface over the Honduras/Nicaragua border, a few showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain were observed over most areas starting in northern and central locations early morning and spreading to inland and southern areas by the afternoon. A divergent pattern at the upper levels provided outflow for these thunderstorms to develop. The moist and unstable conditions persisted to the end of the month.
The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, the country suffered from several dry spells with rainfall being mostly attributed to low levels moisture and a few tropical waves/surface troughs. Thus, rainfall was below normal over most areas. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal to slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/night-time temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal for most the stations except for the Towerhill, Belmopan and Punta Gorda stations were below normal night-time temperatures was observed.
Monthly Rainfall Summary
Monthly Maximum Temperatures
Monthly Minimum Temperatures
Rainfall Observed: June 2021 (mm)
Rainfall Observed: June 2021 (% Above/Below Average)