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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,393
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: July 4, 2021

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy, less so in the north. Mostly clear skies and windy in San Pedro. A relatively moist easterly airflow prevailing.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny skies today with a few cloudy spells. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy becoming cloudy at times. Shower activity will be generally isolated , except for the south and some coastal areas where a few showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected.
Winds: E, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Monday thru to Monday night is for cloudy spells and shower activity will be generally isolated during the day, then a few showers or isolated thunderstorms during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from June 29 to July 7: The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches will remain high during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00 am, Tropical Storm Elsa was centered near latitude 18.1N, longitude 75.5W, or about 85 miles east of Kingston Jamaica. Elsa was moving to the west-northwest at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. This system does not pose a threat to Belize due to its distance from the country. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Elsa near 18.1N 75.5W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move to 19.5N 77.4W this afternoon, 21.5N 79.4W Mon morning, inland to 23.0N 81.0W Mon afternoon, 24.6N 82.2W Tue morning, 25.9N 82.8W Tue afternoon, and 27.8N 82.9W Wed morning. Elsa will move inland near 33.2N 80.0W early Thu. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the western basin will move W of the region today.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
27° C
81° F
Inland 33° C
93° F
24° C
75° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
20° C
68° F
High: 5:30 AM Low: 12:58 PM
High: 7:31 PM Low: 12:17 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:22 AM Moonset: 2:14 PM
Sunset: 6:31 PM Moonrise: 1:55 AM (Mon)

Four Day Weather Outlook:


250 Km Radar Picture
(Time Label on picture is GMT. Local time is GMT-6 Hours)

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located over the Caribbean Sea about 85 miles (140 km) east of Kingston, Jamaica. It's moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,393
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
Weather analysis shows a tropical wave coming to Central America. Sunday it would be over the region of the Yucat�n Peninsula. Elsa degrades to tropical storm over the Caribbean.

[Linked Image]

Elsa appears to have slowed down, and smoothing through the latest center reformation yields an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Despite the changes to the initial motion and position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed much. Elsa is expected to move west-northwestward and track near or over Jamaica and eastern Cuba later this morning and then across or just south of the central and western portions of Cuba later today through early Monday. By early Monday, however, Elsa should be making a turn to the north as it moves between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take the storm near the Florida Keys by late Monday and near or over the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. After that time, the storm is forecast to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed as it tracks across the southeast U.S. and over the western Atlantic on the northwest side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, due in part to the initial motion and position.

The short term intensity forecast is very dependent on Elsa's exact track. If the core of the storm moves directly over Jamaica or Cuba, the small vortex would likely be very disrupted due to the mountainous islands. However, if the storm manages to pass between those islands today, some strengthening seems possible given the improved appearance in satellite images. Weakening is forecast to occur on Monday due to a combination of land interaction with Cuba and an increase in vertical wind shear. After the storm moves over the Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, only a small amount of restrengthening is expected due to continued moderate wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the majority of the typically skillful intensity aids.

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a wind from the East at 12 mph and a calm sea condition around our barrier reef. The North East wind and rain last night moved out a lot of the sargasso and the water around shore is clearing. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88f.


White Sands Dive Shop
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,393
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
The easterly Caribbean winds are sort of normal, still no effect from that TS ELSA the high level is slow moving from the SW. But there is a sort of front crossing over Belize from the east, causing many rain showers the full length of the country, with thunder all over the place.

Looks as if these many small rain areas will continue for much of the morning, between Sunshine and clouds, some heavy clouds. Probably easing of this afternoon, but some patches of rain in any location.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 33°C 91°F Yesterday Rain 25.8 mm ( 1.0") Over Night Rain 0.3 mm ( 0.01" )

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